Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

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Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Analysis

July – CLN20 Contract

Crude Corner Outlook:

The mid $35.00 – $36.00 price area will likely contain selling pressure into July trading activity. Above which, the $44.00 price area is likely and able to be obtained within several weeks.

Near-Term Bullish Scenario:

The $38.00 price area can contain initial strength, beyond which the mid $40.00 price area is likely and able to contain session strength. Closing above the $40.00 price area indicates the $44.00 price area in several days which sets the stage for the $49.00 price area to follow.

Near-Term Bearish Scenario:

Breaking below the mid $35.00 price area indicates a test of the mid $34.00 price area intraday. Closing below the mid $35.00 price area indicates a June high has already been placed. The mid $31.00 price area then expected by the end of the week and the mid $23.00 price area within several weeks.

Check out our Crude Corner charts for our long-term market analysis outlook AND our Crude Corner weekly / daily breakout charts with KEY Active Support & Resistance price areas.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Analysis

July – CLN20 Contract

For Today:

The $36.00 price area will likely contain selling pressure. The mid $37.00 price area is likely and able to contain buying throughout the balance of June.

Near-Term Bullish Scenario:

Breaking above the mid $37.00 price area allows for upward momentum towards the mid $39.00 price area. A daily settlement above the mid $37.00 price area signifies near-term target at the mid $42.00 price area within a week or so. Long-term upside target at the mid $55.00 price area is then likely over several weeks.

Near-Term Bearish Scenario:

Breaking below the $36.00 price area allows for a retest of the $35.00 price area. Closing below the mid $35.00 price area would allow for a retest of the mid $33.00 price area which will likely contain near term selling.

Check out today’s pre-market multiple timeframe charts for areas of confluence AND this week’s Crude Corner breakout chart displaying key support & resistance areas.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

To call this ride crude oil has been on “wild” is clearly an understatement. From prices trading at nearly NEGATIVE $40.00 a barrel when approaching expiration of the May contract, to the Saudi & Russian price war, pared with the global economic shutdowns generating over supply and completely depleting demand – to a historic comeback of prices rallying nearly 90% during the calendar month of May. This year thus far has undoubtedly been the wildest ride of my trading career!

The craziest part of all of this is the insane opportunities the market continues to present. To think looking back that I’ve made less money in calmer seas than these rough unpredictable times makes this all that more exciting. Adversity often presents opportunity, and that’s exactly what is happening throughout all of this craziness.

I suspect the crude oil market is most likely coming due for a short-term correction. A base of support is much needed to be formed which the market is currently lacking. The July contract has been rallying on average approximately $4.00 per week to the upside for the past 4 straight weeks in a row.

I believe the market will have a greater chance of following through with it’s current rally trajectory if along the way there are bottoms placed and solidified. The $36.00 – the mid $37.00 price area will likely determine if this rally has a pullback or if it continues on its current upward path.

If buying strength weakens we could see a healthy correction to as deep as the $26.00 price area. This formation of a secondary, higher bottom would confirm buyer’s interest in driving this current rally onward and upward.

If the $31.00 price area is broken through, the $26.00 price area will most likely be able to contain remaining selling. The next 2 bullish target’s I’m looking at are at the mid $37.00 price area and further to the upside between the $39.00 – $40.00 price area.

There is a confluence of intraday upside resistance / supply that would need to be successfully broken through on multiple timeframe Hawkeye Zones at $37.33 – this break would be key to see the next suspected upside target at the $39.00 price area.

Check out this week’s Crude Corner Passive Breakout Trade Idea(s) offering both bullish and bearish scenarios. This strategy suggests 3 contracts for each trade. 1 Stop with 3 Targets. If there are open position(s) at 1400 EST on Friday or on the last day of the trading week, I would recommend closing them out before the weekend.

PLEASE NOTE: I would strongly recommend the use of confirmation tools and the implementation of your unique trade management plan before entering any trade.

“Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.” ~ Albert Einstein

Wishing you a blessed and profitable week!

Anthony
Crude Corner

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil futures moved lower on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise increase in United States crude stocks, which offset hopes for a demand recovery as coronavirus lockdowns ease.

For the week ending May 22 United States stockpiles rose by 7.9 million barrels, the United States Energy Information Administration said. Analysts had been expecting a draw of 1.3 million barrels.

Data from industry group API showed United States crude stocks rose 8.7 million barrels in the week to May 22, against analyst expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel draw.

Also weighing on prices was uncertainty about Russia’s commitment to continuing deep output cuts ahead of a June 9 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a grouping dubbed OPEC+.

Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC oil producers are considering extending record high output cuts until the end of 2020 but have yet to win support from Russia, according to OPEC+ and Russian sources.

Reportedly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed during a telephone call on further “close coordination” on output restrictions on Wednesday.

With United States WTI holding above $30 a barrel, OPEC+ will be watching to see whether United States shale oil producers, who have breakeven prices in the high $20 to low $30 range, step up production.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the $39.00 price area remains a several week target. If achieved, then the mid $55.00 price area would likely be in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The mid $26.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the $39.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the $39.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several weeks.

Bearish Outlook:

A daily settlement below the mid $26.00 price area would likely yield a $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending to the upside since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom the week-ending May 1.

The market has a lot more work to do before the trend changes to bullish on the weekly chart. A trade through the last main top at $54.86 will change the main trend to bullish. A move through $17.27 will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 remains it’s support. This price is actually controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 which services as the first upside bullish target.

The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target. This zone likely controls the longer-term direction of the market.

Technical Forecast

Given the price action over the last three weeks, the direction of the July WTI crude oil futures contract the week-ending May 29 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at $33.27.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $27.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at $28.86. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $28.86, however, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with near-term targets the minor top at $35.18 and the 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $33.27 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger the start of a steep break with the first target $27.46, followed by another uptrending Gann angle at $25.27.

Technical Summary

Counter-trend upside momentum has been driving up July WTI crude oil since the week-ending May 1 at a pace of $4.00 per week. If this upside momentum is to continue the week-ending May 29 then the market is going to have to hold above $33.27. A failure to hold $33.27 will indicate that momentum is weakening. This could trigger a near-term correction towards $25.27.

May Crude Corner Weekly Passive Breakout Trade Recap

5 Trades Utilizing ONLY 3 Contracts Per Trade
Paid $17,340.00 of PASSIVE PROFIT in May

Crude Corner CLOSED Swing Trade … $55,800.00 in 11 DAYS!!!

Sunday evening May 10, 2020 @ 1800 EST we entered a swing trade position.

Position Size: 10 Contracts

Trade Directions: LONG

Contract: CLN20

Entry Price: $26.04

Target Price: $36.04

Stopped Out @ $31.62

Trade Duration: 11 Days

This HAWKEYE powered trading strategy is the flagship of our service, we take only the highest probability of successful passive trades for massive income. These trades occur on average approximately 1 once a month, but when they do, they pay BIG!!!

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

In the last two months, oil has hit two very different milestones.

In April, West Texas Intermediate, the United States oil benchmark, plunged below zero and into negative territory for the first time ever on record.

Meanwhile, May is shaping up to be WTI’s best month ever, going back to the contract’s inception in 1983.

This has been a never before seen, astonishing turnaround.

Improvements on both the demand and supply side of the equation have pushed prices higher.

Data shows that people in the United States and China are starting to hit the road again, while producers around the globe have cut output at record rates in an effort to prop up prices.

The latest figures from EIA show that United States production has dropped 1.6M BPD below the March high of 13.1M BPD.

Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have scaled back operations.

The contract has jumped more than 70% in May and posted four straight weeks of gains, but some traders warn that the near-term outlook for oil remains uncertain, and that prices could head back into the $20’s after settling around $33 last Friday.

Additionally, part of WTI’s blistering rally this month is due to the historic low from which it bounced.

Prices are still about 50% below January’s high of $65.65, significantly cutting into profits for energy companies, which are often saddled with debt.

A number of United States energy companies have already filed for bankruptcy protection, including Whiting Petroleum, which was once a large player in the Bakken region.

If prices stay at depressed levels, there could be more financial casualties.

Still, the market has shown signs of rebalancing itself, and analysts say that if demand continues to improve and producers keep wells shut-in, the worst of what we’ve seen in recent months could be over for oil.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the mid $39.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area would then be in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

he mid $27.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the mid $39.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the mid $39.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several more weeks, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A daily settlement below the mid $27.00 price area would likely yield a $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

he main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending to the upside since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom the week-ending May 1.

The market has a lot more work to do before the trend changes to bullish on the weekly chart. A trade through the last main top at $54.86 will change the main trend to bullish. A move through $17.27 will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 remains it’s support. This price is actually controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 which services as the first upside bullish target.

The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target. This zone likely controls the longer-term direction of the market.

Technical Forecast

Given the price action over the last three weeks, the direction of the July WTI crude oil futures contract the week-ending May 29 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at $33.27.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $33.27 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into $36.07. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $40.11 to $40.86.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $33.27 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger the start of a steep break with the first target $27.46, followed by another uptrending Gann angle at $25.27.

Technical Summary

Counter-trend upside momentum has been driving up July WTI crude oil since the week-ending May 1 at a pace of $4.00 per week. If this upside momentum is to continue the week-ending May 29 then the market is going to have to hold above $33.27. A failure to hold $33.27 will indicate that momentum is weakening. This could trigger a near-term correction towards $25.27.

May Crude Corner Weekly Passive Breakout Trade Recap

$18,140 of PASSIVE PROFIT over the past 3 WEEKS:

5/4/20 – 5/8/20 Weekly Trade Strategy Paid $6,460:

5/11/20 – 5/15/20 Weekly Trade Strategy Paid $6,080:

5/18/20 – 5/22/20 Weekly Trade Strategy Paid $5,600:

Crude Corner CLOSED Swing Trade … $55,800.00 in 11 DAYS!!!

On Sunday evening May 10, 2020 @ 1800 EST we entered a swing trade position.

Position Size: 10 Contracts

Trade Directions: LONG

Contract: CLN20

Entry Price: $26.04

Target Price: $36.04

Stopped Out @ $31.62

Trade Duration: 11 Days

This HAWKEYE powered trading strategy is our flagship, we take only the highest probability of successful passive trades for massive income.

These trades occur on average less than 20 times annually, but when they do, they pay us very well.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Crude Corner Swing Trade Position Update

On Sunday evening May 10, 2020 at 1800 EST, we entered a swing trade position.

Position Size: 10 Contracts

Trade Directions: Long

Contract: CLN20

Purchase Price: $26.04

Position Stopped Out at $31.57

Total trade profit: $55,800 inside of two weeks!

This particular trading strategy is the flagship of this system. We recommend only the highest probability of successful passive trades for massive income. These trades occur on average less than twice a month, but when they pay… they pay BIG!

Crude Corner Weekly Trade Recap … 5/18 – 5/22

Our bullish breakout confirmed a long entry at $30.75. We entered the trade with 3 targets: one contract to be executed at each target.

Once the first target contract was filled, we moved our stop to break even as there was no reason to risk our profit on the table for the remainder of the week.

Targets 2 and 3 later in the week were successfully filled.

So the total take for last week executing this strategy paid us $5,600.

Not too shabby for just having to set up the trade, move your stop to break even, step aside and let it ride!

Have you taken advantage of any of these crude oil moves?

If so, hit leave a comment and tell us what trade you took and how you did!

Oil prices rose to the highest level since March on Thursday, supported by lower United States crude inventories, OPEC-led supply cuts and recovering demand as governments ease restrictions imposed on people’s movements due to the coronavirus crisis.

In the latest sign the supply glut is easing, United States crude inventories fell approximately million barrels last week. Meanwhile, analysts had been expecting an increase.

The rally in the crude futures is beginning to approach levels in which United States shale production declines will begin to slow and possibly reverse as low cost producers attempt to generate revenue.

At the same time, there is evidence of recovering in fuel consumption.

Top United States airlines and Air Canada on Tuesday reported slower ticket cancellations and an improvement in bookings on some routes, though executives said overall demand remained relatively weak.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut supply by a record 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1.

So far in May, OPEC+ has cut oil exports by about 6 million BPD, according to companies that track the flows, suggesting a strong start in complying with the deal. OPEC says the market has responded well.

Unemployment Remains a Concern

With now nearly 39 million American workers on unemployment and countless Americans who are either ineligible to collect or are still waiting for their unemployment to be processed – growing recession / depression concerns linger.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the mid $39.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $28.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the mid $39.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the mid $39.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several more weeks, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the $28.00 price area would most likely yield a $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom from the week-ending May 1.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the nearest swing top at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in near-term momentum. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 is the primary upside target. The weekly gap at $37.64 to $41.88 is another potential resistance zone. The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market for the week-ending May 22 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $27.46.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $27.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at $28.86. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $28.86, however, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with near-term targets the minor top at $35.18 and the 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $27.46 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a downtrending Gann angle at $24.95. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the first target a minor 50% level at $23.14, followed by the main bottom at $17.27.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Crude Corner Weekly Trade Recap: 5/11 – 5/15

Our bullish breakout confirmed a long entry at $27.15. We entered the trade with 3 targets — one contract to be executed at each target. Our first target was acquired at $28.35, locking in $1,200.

Once that target contract was filled, we moved our stop to break even as there was no reason to risk our profit on the table for the remainder of the week. Targets 2 and 3 were never successfully filled.

This being a passive, weekly trade strategy we closed out our 2 remaining contracts at the closing price of the 1400 EST candle on Friday afternoon at $29.59 paying us a generous $4,880.

That puts the total take for last week at just over $6,000 using this strategy!

Not too shabby for just having to set up the trade, move your stop to break even and close out the open contracts Friday afternoon.

The First Signs Of Real Oil Demand Recovery Are Here

United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are breaking out to the upside of a seven-session trading range, solidifying its third consecutive weekly higher close. The catalyst behind last week’s strength is a report that showed China’s daily crude oil throughput rebounded in April from a 15-month low in March as refiners cranked up operations to meet renewed fuel demand after lockdowns imposed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus outbreak were eased. Friday’s move was impressive, but upside momentum had been building most of the week with the market underpinned by a friendly government inventories report, the announcement of government crude oil purchases for its strategic reserve and a dampening of concerns over rising supply by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

China’s Daily Crude Oil Throughput Rebounds

China processed a total of 53.85 million tonnes of crude oil last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Friday, equivalent to about 13.1 million barrels per day (BPD). That was some 11% higher than 11.78 million BPD in March. The agency said on Friday it had adjusted the database of industrial enterprises it uses to help compile a range of production numbers. On that basis, April’s crude oil throughput was 0.8% above the year-ago level, it said; a Reuters calculation using NBS data from last year put the rise at 3.4%. Additionally, state-backed refiners have pushed up crude oil processing rates to around 79% in May, according to estimates from consultancy Longzhong Information Group, close to January’s 82% level before extensive movement restrictions were imposed to prevent the coronavirus spreading.

US to Buy Up to 1 Million Barrels of Oil for Emergency Reserve

The U.S. Energy Department said on Wednesday it will buy up to 1 million barrels of sweet crude for the government’s emergency petroleum reserve as part an effort to help producers struggling as the coronavirus strangles oil demand. The purchase of up to 1 million barrels “will serve as a test of the current conditions of physical crude oil available to the SPR as opposed to the financial market trading WTI NYMEX futures contracts,” the department said in a release. The department will purchase the oil from small to midsize domestic producers, it said.

Upbeat Supply/Demand Estimates

Oil prices are also being underpinned after a drop in U.S. crude stocks and an IEA forecast for lower global stockpiles in the second half. On Wednesday, the U.S. government reported that crude inventories fell for the first time in 15 weeks. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday again forecast a record drop in demand in 2020 though it trimmed its estimate of the fall citing easing lockdown measures.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the mid $40.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The mid $28.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the mid $40.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the mid $40.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several months, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the mid $28.00 price area would likely yield a mid $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom from the week-ending May 1.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the nearest swing top at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in near-term momentum. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 is the primary upside target. The weekly gap at $37.64 to $41.88 is another potential resistance zone. The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market for the week-ending May 22 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $27.46.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $27.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at $28.86. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $28.86, however, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with near-term targets the minor top at $35.18 and the 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $27.46 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a downtrending Gann angle at $24.95. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the first target a minor 50% level at $23.14, followed by the main bottom at $17.27.

Crude Corner Swing Trade Position

We acquired a LONG position at the open of the globex session on 5/10/20 @ 1800 EST. We purchased (10) CLN20 July WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Contracts @ $26.04. Our position is currently +/- $6.00 in the profit heading strong towards our $36.04 profit target. Our stop is already in the money and we are looking forward to closing out another passive trading for massive income crude oil trade for 2020!!!

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil prices have rebounded from their recent lows and hopefully the worst is now over. The oil market appears like it may have already turned the corner. Perhaps we are in the inflection right now as we speak.

Prices recovered faster than many were forecasting due to lower-than-expected supply coupled with better-than-expected demand.

Data from the United States Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that the United States production is now 1.5 million barrels per day below its March all-time high level of 13.1 million BPD.

Beginning May 1, OPEC and its oil-producing allies took 9.7 million BPD offline, and on this past Monday Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, said it would scale back production further in an effort to boost prices. The EIA’s data also showed that gasoline demand is beginning to recover as states start to ease shelter-in-place restrictions.

In April, May’s expiring West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract plunged below zero and into negative territory for the first time on record, but prices have since recovered and on Thursday the contract for June delivery traded around $26. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $30.

By the end of 2021, WTI could be trading as high as $60, and Brent as high as $65, but there is some caution warranted. In order for the market to rebalance there needs to be a continued drawdown in inventories, and the production that has already come offline needs to stay offline for at least a sustainable period of time.

As we emerged from lockdown we got an immediate pop exhibited in this week’s trading.

Despite WTI’s rebound, prices are still about 60% below the January high level of the mid $65.00 price area, which has pressured producers as companies struggle to break even. Once demand catches up and producers look to adding supply again, access to capital markets will likely be limited.

Most investors have had enough of the energy sector. They already had enough going into this, and if they hadn’t had enough before they’re unlikely to be interested this time around. What that tells you, when they need to grow production they’re going to have to grow it out of cash flow, which means we’re going to see higher prices in the pipeline.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the $29.00 price area remains a near term target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $29.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the mid $12.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the $29.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. A daily settlement above the $41.00 price area would then be expected within several weeks and then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several months, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the mid $12.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JUNE – CLM20 )

The main trend is bearish according to the weekly swing chart, but the closing price reversal bottom from the week ending May 1 and its subsequent confirmation, helped shift momentum to the upside.

The actual main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main bottom at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, however, there is room to the upside for the market to complete a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the bearish trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in momentum to bullish. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $27.46 is providing resistance. This price level is also controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $36.07 is the next potential upside target. The main range at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target.

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market the week-ending May 15 is likely to be determined by a downtrending Gann angle at $26.95.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $26.95 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with targets including a 50% level at $27.46, followed by another downtrending Gann angle at $30.86. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target a 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $26.95 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a minor pivot at $22.93, followed by the reversal bottom at $17.27.

Technical Outlook

In order to generate the momentum needed to drive this market away from the late April bottom, the buying is going to have to be strong enough to overcome the pair of downtrending Gann angles at $26.95 and $30.86.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

The markets have been rallying for two weeks as investors have keyed in on signs of a slowdown in production and the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions across the globe. Back-to-back smaller than expected crude oil inventory builds have been supportive, but the rise in distillate stockpiles offset that news.

Positive geopolitical developments could be the bullish wildcard next week. On Friday, the markets garnered a little support after United States and Chinese officials discussed a trade deal agreed before the coronavirus outbreak, with both sides agreeing to implement the agreement.

We’re seeing a lot of short-covering, but traders have been reluctant to go long given the bearish fundamentals. This may change if prices pullback into a value area. Furthermore, traders are not going to gain confidence in playing the long side until they start to see that the attempts to reopen the economy are proving to be successful.

Despite the recent strength, traders should continue to look for heightened volatility and the possibility of a wicked two-sided trade as some momentum traders get bullish on the easing of restrictions and some turn bearish again as inventories continue to build.

The assumptions on the supply side that are driving prices higher right now are certainly supported by data. There has already been a massive decline in the rig count, taking the number of active rigs in America to new lows. That has a big impact on where we will be in the future, but unless there is enough demand to eat into the existing glut, that won’t make much difference to the short-term storage issue.

On the demand side, things aren’t as clear-cut. I hope and pray that things go smoothly as some states begin to reopen, but there is a chance that it is just too soon. If so and coronavirus cases spike, that anticipation of big increases in demand disappears and oil will likely collapse again. Even if the worst-case scenario doesn’t unfold though, reopening is a gradual process and it is hard to imagine that gasoline demand will be robust enough initially to allow for a further jump in crude over the next several weeks. Retail gasoline sales while better than they were, remain weak.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $13.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the mid $29.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The mid $29.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the $13.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the mid $29.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $41.00 price area would be expected within several weeks and the mid $55.00 price area then attainable within several months, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the $13.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend is bearish according to the weekly swing chart, but the closing price reversal bottom from the week ending May 1 and its subsequent confirmation, helped shift momentum to the upside.

The actual main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main bottom at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, however, there is room to the upside for the market to complete a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the bearish trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in momentum to bullish. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $27.46 is providing resistance. This price level is also controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $36.07 is the next potential upside target. The main range at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target.

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market the week-ending May 15 is likely to be determined by a downtrending Gann angle at $26.95.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $26.95 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with targets including a 50% level at $27.46, followed by another downtrending Gann angle at $30.86. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target a 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $26.95 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a minor pivot at $22.93, followed by the reversal bottom at $17.27.

Technical Outlook

In order to generate the momentum needed to drive this market away from the late April bottom, the buying is going to have to be strong enough to overcome the pair of downtrending Gann angles at $26.95 and $30.86.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil prices traded in positive territory on Thursday, but retreated from session highs during afternoon trading.

Several bullish factors supported prices, including United States companies cutting production, Saudi Arabia raising their official oil selling price and gasoline demand improving as economies around the world begin to start the reopening process.

WTI – CLM20, the United States benchmark, gained 1.5%, or 36 cents, to trade at $24.26 per barrel.

Earlier in Thursday’s session WTI had been up more than 11%, hitting a session high of $26.74.

This week, WTI has gained more than 27%, putting it on pace for one of its best weeks on record going back to the contract’s inception in 1983.

Of course, given the more than 50% decline this year a smaller move now accounts for a significantly larger percentage change.

Data from the Energy Information Administration showed that for the week ending May 1 production declined by 200,000 barrels per day to 11.9M BPD, which is more than 1M BPD below March’s record high.

Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have cut production in the face of depressed prices.

While inventory in the United States is still rising, it’s now at a slower pace.

Last week, stockpiles grew by 4.6M Barrels, which was smaller than the 8.67M Barrels build analysts had been expecting.

While the demand for gasoline is still well below its highs, government data showed that it is starting to turn a corner as states start to open up their economies.

All eyes were on yesterday morning’s Unemployment Claims Report.

With now 33.5+ Million Americans put on unemployment within the last 7 weeks, and countless people who have been unable to successfully file, things to come remain rather grim looking.

So the question is … Is this rally overdone?

Given WTI’s nearly 40% gain this month, some say the rally is overdone, especially as storage around the world continues to fill.

Looking forward to June’s contract expiration may likely cause some anxiety in the market after what transpired last month when May’s contract expiration traded negative.

Time will tell as it always does!

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $13.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the $30.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the 57.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $30.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the mid $13.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the $30.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the $42.00 price area would be expected within several weeks and the $57.00 price area then attainable within several months, then likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below mid $13.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JUNE – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart. The market isn’t close to turning the main trend to bullish, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.80% retracement. A trade through $6.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market for this week-ending May 8 is likely to be determined by trader’s reaction to the pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at the $20.00 price area all week. Trader’s reaction to this level will set the tone. The market could get bullish over the $20.00 price area and bearish under the $11.00 price area

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $20.00 price area will indicate the bulls are getting stronger. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at the $30.00 price area.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $20.00 price area will signal the presence of bears. The first downside target is a steep downtrending angle at the $11.00 price area. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the next target the $6.50 price area.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

United States West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures were up for a third straight session when closing out last week’s trading activity as major producers began output cuts to offset a slump in fuel demand triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, while reported data showed United States Crude Inventories grew less than expected.

Futures prices are now within striking distance of the close on April 20 which is the day before the steep drop that saw nearby May futures plunging into negative territory for the first time in history. This move would diminish the impact of the historic break in crude oil just two weeks ago.

OPEC+ Production Cuts Began

Reflecting the output cuts agreed between OPEC and other major producers like Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, the imbalance between oil supply and demand is set to be halved to 13.6 million barrels per day (BPD) in May, and drop further to 6.1 million BPD in June.

U.S. Firms Cutting Production

Traders are saying production cuts of almost 10 million bpd by OPEC and it’s allies or about 10% of global production, which is due to take effect from May 1, are not going to have that much of an impact on prices without the United States curbing its own output.

While storage is rapidly filling up, production cuts by U.S. shale producers, are estimated at 300,000 BPD for May and June, should help slow the flow of excessive inventory into the reserve tanks.

Additionally, regulators in the U.S. state of Texas, the country’s biggest oil producer, will hold a vote on May 5 on whether to enact output curtailments. Officials in the states of North Dakota and Oklahoma are also examining ways to legally allow output cuts.

Oversupply Concerns Dampened

Storage concerns continue to weigh on markets with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that global capacity could reach its maximum by mid-June and that energy demand could slump by a record 6% in 2020 due to lockdowns. Nevertheless, WTI and Brent crude oil are rallying because of an easing of worries over rising United States stockpiles.

It started late Tuesday last week with the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly inventories report that showed a smaller than expected build, and continued on Wednesday when the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported numbers below forecasts.

According to the EIA, United States crude inventories grew by 9 million barrels last week to 527.6 million barrels, well below the 10.4 million-barrel rise analysts had expected.

United States gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.7 million barrels from record highs the previous week, with a slight rise in fuel demand offsetting a rebound in refinery output.

Demand Destruction Will Continue to Weigh on Prices

Prices are likely to fall further this year even as countries begin to ease restrictions imposed to counter the viral outbreak and the output cuts by big producers will not fix the supply glut.

The estimated shortfall this year is expected to be about 30 million BPD of demand. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic has obliterated demand with much of the world’s population still under some form of economic and/or social lockdown.

Short-Term Outlook

Gains are likely to be capped and selling pressure may resume over the short-run since the 30 million BPD plunge in demand is three times the size of the OPEC+ output cuts.

Prices could remain underpinned over the near-term, however, because of signs of a tightening of United States supply. Bullish traders and domestic oil companies are hoping this develops into a worthy trend. Nonetheless, industry professionals would like to see more aggressive cuts in production by United States producers.

What we’re seeing in the futures market is most likely profit-taking and light short-covering. Storage capacity is getting close to overflowing, but at a slower speed so short-sellers are merely making adjustments.

The smaller inventory builds should be noted but we’re going to need to see a continuation of this trend in the coming weeks to suggest the worst might be behind us. However, the reality is the already-stretched storage capacity is getting fuller and fuller every week, a rise in prices cannot be sustainable for long as the problem is still far from being resolved.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $14.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the $31.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the 57.00 price area is in reach over the next 3-5 months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $31.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the mid $14.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the $31.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the $43.00 price area would be expected within several weeks and the $57.00 price area then attainable within several months, likely the high for the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below mid $14.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JUNE – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart. The market isn’t close to turning the main trend to bullish, but there is room for a normal 50% to 60% retracement. A trade through $6.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market for this week-ending May 8 is likely to be determined by trader’s reaction to the pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at the $20.00 price area all week. Trader’s reaction to this level will set the tone. The market could get bullish over the $20.00 price area and bearish under the $11.00 price area.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $20.00 price area will indicate the bulls are getting stronger. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at the $30.00 price area.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $20.00 price area will signal the presence of bears. The first downside target is a steep downtrending angle at the $11.00 price area. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the next target the $6.50 price area.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil and gas exploration and production companies are slated to lose a staggering $1 trillion in revenues in 2020. The industry, which includes oil majors, made $2.47 trillion in revenues globally last year. But this year it’s projected to bring in $1.47 trillion, reflecting a 40% decline year-on-year.

This comes as the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing lockdowns cripple demand and force companies to slash spending and cancel projects. Before the virus began to hit economies, revenues for 2020 were expected to reach $2.35 trillion. Returns for 2021 are now also projected lower, at $1.79 trillion compared to a forecast of $2.52 trillion before the pandemic.

Crude Oil Inventories reported on Wednesday rose LESS THAN forecasted. A 9M Barrel build as opposed to a predicted 11.2M Barrel build. This, in conjunction with the talks of a soft reopenings for economies around the world and the OPEC+ deal cuts going into effect May 1, prices have started to rally

Jobless claims continue to rise. New claims reached 3.84 million last week, bringing the total to 30.3 million for the last six weeks. The number of total claims makes this the worst unemployment crisis in United States history. The greatest consumers in the world are jobless and confined. To see these weekly jobless claims begin to reverse would give crude oil a great boost!

CLM20 has been Blacklisted, I spoke with TradeStation to try to get some clarification as to when client’s will be able to trade the front month CL contract again – the June CLM20 Contract has been blacklisted due to last week’s little adventure into the negatives. The July contract CLN20 is able to be traded today and as long as the market remains stable moving forward it will be able to be traded as the “front month” after the June contract expires.

Long-Term MONTHLY Price Outlook

The $12.00 price area can potentially absorb annual selling pressure, above which the mid $29.00 price area remains a several week target, the $57.00 price area is potentially in reach over the next several months.

Upside, the mid $29.00 price area can absorb buying pressure through the remaining May trading sessions, with a daily settlement above the mid $29.00 price area indicating a good annual low has been placed.

The $57.00 price area then becomes a several month target where the broader market can potentially place this calendar year’s high.

Downside, a daily settlement below the $12.00 price area will most likely yield a single digit or even a potentially negative price area retest within several days to follow.

Mid – Term WEEKLY Price Outlook … 4 / 27 – 5 / 1

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart.

A trade through the $6.00 price area will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main top at the $55.00 price area. However, this is extremely unlikely.

The minor trade range is between the $34.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level or pivot point is at the $20.00 price area.

The short-term trade range is between the $55.00 price area to the $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level comes in at the $31.00 price area.

The main trade range is the $64.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% to 60% retracement zone which is between the $35.00 price area and the $42.00 price area serves as a major price resistance.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract for the week-ending May 1 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending angle at the $15.00 price area.

Weekly Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $15.00 price area will indicate the presence of buyers.

If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Since the main trend remains bearish, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this level.

In attempts of the bears trying to overtake it, could potentially trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next major target coming in at the $31.00 price area.

Weekly Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $15.00 price area will signal the strong return of sellers.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with the next downtrending target angle coming in at negative price areas.

Short – Term DAILY Price Outlook … May 1, 2020

For Friday, the $12.00 price area remains a long-term support level that can absorb not only daily selling, but also selling pressure throughout the balance of May’s trading activity as long as the market continues placing weekly and monthly settlements above the $12.00 price area.

The next several weeks are likely to yield an upside potential of testing the $30.00 price area.

Upside today, the $19.00 price area most likely contains initial strength, beyond which the $24.00 price area is able to contain the balance of the session’s strength.

A settlement today above the $24.00 price area indicates potentially reaching the $30.00 price area within several days.

Downside today, a weekly settlement below the $12.00 price area allows a further fall to the single digit price area within days.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

The late-week rally we experienced last week was likely being fueled by short-covering rather than speculative buying.

Nothing has changed in the fundamentals to turn the energy complex bullish in the last several days.

Oil remains under pressure and will continue to be for a little while, as world economies are attempting to reopen very slowly in the United States and Western Europe, although resumption in China still remains further down the line.

With May 1 approaching fast, the big question is how will the supply side deliver?

Prices could continue to firm up for this week if more OPEC+ members announce early production cuts.

An escalation of military activity in the Middle East would also be a driving factor for high prices.

However, the wildcard will be the announcement of oil output cuts made by the United States oil producers.

This news could potentially trigger a steep short-covering rally.

The demand destruction is expected to continue, but may slow down a bit if the COVID-19 curve continues to flatten.

Once the coronavirus is under control, output should rebound as well as prices, but don’t expect output or prices to return to pre-virus levels for quite some time.

Rising Tensions In The Middle East Threaten Supplies

After June futures hit $6.50 per barrel and the nearby futures contract went off the board, prices rose in reaction to an announcement from President Donald Trump in which he instructed the United States Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that harass them in the Gulf, although he added later he was not changing the military’s rules of engagement.

This ratchets up tensions once again between the United States and Iran.

However, given the glut we have in the oil market, it is difficult to see this offering lasting support to the market, unless the situation does escalate further.

From A Purely Technical Perspective…

Look out for a strong bullish upside bias to develop on a sustained move above the $20.00 price area…

And look out for a strong bearish downside bias to continue on a sustained move below the $15.00 price area.

April Crude Oil YEARLY Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on April 15, then pulls back into April 19 then makes a major top on May 2.
  • The 20 year cycle makes a major low on April 11 then rallies into the April 25.
  • The 30 year cycle continues its sell off into April 18 then rallies into the end of the month.

April is the second most bullish month of the year for crude oil.

With that said, there’s really no clear correlation to support that statement.

But, there is a seasonal tendency for oil prices to rally during the latter part of this month.

Key turning point dates:

  • April 3
  • April 16 to 17 – close to 10 and 30 year cycles
  • April 23 to 24 – close to 20 year cycle

Long-Term MONTHLY Price Outlook

The $12.00 price area can potentially absorb annual selling pressure, above which the $30.00 price area remains a several week target, the $57.00 price area is potentially in reach over the next several months.

Upside, the $30.00 price area can absorb buying pressure through May trading sessions, a daily settlement above the $30.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been placed.

Then the $57.00 price area becomes a several month target where the broader market can potentially place this calendar year’s high.

Downside, a daily settlement below the $12.00 price area will most likely yield a $1.00 price area test within several days to follow, the lowest price support presently found on any chart.

Further downside action would likely result in another negative price retest like we saw during the last week on the CLK20 expiring contract.

Mid – Term WEEKLY Price Outlook … 4 / 27 – 5 / 1

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart.

A trade through the $6.00 price area will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main top at the $55.00 price area.

However, this is extremely unlikely.

The minor trade range is between the $34.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level or pivot point is at the $20.00 price area.

The short-term trade range is between the $55.00 price area to the $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level comes in at the $31.00 price area.

The main trade range is the $64.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% to 60% retracement zone which is between the $35.00 price area and the $42.00 price area serves as a major price resistance.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract for the week-ending May 1 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending angle at the $15.00 price area.

Weekly Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $15.00 price area will indicate the presence of buyers.

If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Since the main trend remains bearish, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this level.

In attempts of the bears trying to overtake it, could potentially trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next major target coming in at the $31.00 price area.

Weekly Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $15.00 price area will signal the strong return of sellers.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with the next downtrending target angle coming in at negative price areas.

Short – Term DAILY Price Outlook … April 28, 2020

For Tuesday, the $12.00 price area remains a long-term support level that can absorb not only daily selling, but also selling pressure throughout the balance of May’s trading activity as long as the market continues placing weekly and monthly settlements above the $12.00 price area.

Upside today, the $17.00 price area would most likely contain initial strength, beyond which the $19.00 price area is able to contain the balance of the session’s strength.

A settlement today above the $19.00 price area indicates potentially reaching the $22.00 price area within several days and a next $30.00 price area target could then potentially be within reach by the end of next week.

Downside today, opening / breaking below the $12.00 price area allows a further fall to the $11.00 price area intraday.

A weekly settlement today below the $12.00 price area critical support will likely allow for further bearish downside back into the single digit prices again, potentially as low as the $1.00 price area by the week’s end.

Let’s reflect on Monday’s charts above.

The price action on the 240 minute chart(s) exited congestion during the pre-market hours on Monday morning on the currently traded and 2 future expiring contracts.

A successful retest of the $12.00 price area held prices from falling further.

Today’s closing price on the closest expiring contract CLM20 was $12.93.

Fresh Hawkeye Demand Zone(s) on the 240 / 480 / 960 Minute and Daily Charts all held selling pressure from falling further during Monday’s trading session.

Confluence among Hawkeye Supply and Demand Zones stacks the odds in our favor of predicting price action and are key for establishing price targets.

The Zones on the 240, 480 & 960 Minute charts all presented clear target(s) to have taken a short position when price exited congestion on the 240 chart.

While there is clearly a bearish sediment in the market, the $12.00 price area remains a key area to hold and resume closing above in order to avoid retesting single digit prices again.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

On Wednesday, the United States Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories rose another 15 million barrels for the week ended April 17 to 518.6 million barrels.

That marked a 13-week climb and followed a record weekly increase of 19.2 million barrels a week earlier.

Another large oil build propels us closer to a record oil inventory level, which is now less than 17 million barrels away.

As refining activity dips to a new 12-year low, the crude build has actually been kept in check by lower oil imports – dropping below 5 million barrels per day for the first time in the weekly data since 1992.

Rising Unemployment, Rising Oil Inventory

The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits totaled 4.427 million last week.

Combined with the prior four jobless claims reports, the number of Americans who have filed for unemployment over the last five weeks is 26.45 million.

That number far exceeds the 22.442 million jobs added to payrolls since November 2009, when the U.S. economy began to add jobs back after the recession.

The bottom line is that 26.45M people are NOT consuming products produced by crude oil.

They aren’t commuting, going to the gym, going out to dinner or leisurely traveling.

April Crude Oil YEARLY Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on April 15, the pulls back into April 19 then makes a major top on May 2.
  • The 20 year cycle makes a major low on the April 11 then rallies into the April 25.
  • The 30 year cycle continues its sell off into April 18 then rallies into the end of the month.

Historically, April is the second most bullish month of the year for crude oil.

With that said, there’s really no clear correlation to support that statement right now.

But, there is a seasonal tendency for oil prices to rally during the latter part of this month.

Key turning point dates:

  • April 3
  • April 16 to 17 – close to 10 and 30 year cycles
  • April 23 to 24 – close to 20 year cycle

Long-Term MONTHLY Price Outlook

The $12.00 price area can potentially absorb annual selling pressure, above which the $28.00 price area remains a several week target, the $57.00 price area is potentially in reach over the next several months.

Upside, the $28.00 price area can absorb buying pressure through the remaining May trading sessions, with a daily settlement above the $28.00 price area indicating a good annual low has been placed.

The $57.00 price area then becomes a several month target where the broader market can potentially place this calendar year’s high.

Downside, a daily settlement below the $12.00 price area will most likely yield a $3.00 price area test within several days to follow, the lowest price support presently found on any chart.

Further downside would result in another negative price retest like we saw earlier in the week on the May CLK20 expiring contract.

WEEKLY Price Outlook … April 20 – 24, 2020

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart.

The market is in no position to change the main trend to bullish, but holding the mid-March bottom at $21.00 price area which could help June WTI crude oil build a solid enough base to support a strong short-covering rally…

While the short-term trend also remains bearish.

Taking out the short-term top at the $34.00 price area won’t change the main trend to bullish, but it will shift momentum to the upside.

Taking out $21.00 price area will reaffirm the downward bearish trend.

The short-term range is between the $21.00 to $34.00 price range.

Its 50% level or pivot at the $28.00 price area is controlling the weekly direction of the market.

On the upside, the nearest 50% level resistance comes in at the $38.00 price area.

Based on the past week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market for the week ending April 24 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at the $28.00 price area.

Downside, a sustained move under the $28.00 price area will indicate the strong presence of sellers.

The first target is the main bottom at the $21.00 price area.

Penetrating this bottom will indicate the selling pressure is gaining traction.

Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at $19.00 price area will put the June WTI futures contract in an extremely bearish position, most likely creating a further downside move.

Upside, a sustained move over the $28.00 price area will signal the presence of optimistic buyers.

If this move is able to create enough upside momentum then look for a potential spike into the $34.00 price area.

Short – Term DAILY Price Outlook … April 24, 2020

For Friday, the $12.00 price area remains a long-term support level that can absorb not only daily selling, but also selling pressure throughout the balance of May’s trading activity as long as the market continues placing weekly and monthly settlements above $12.00 price area.

The next several weeks are likely to yield an upside potential of testing the $30.00 price area.

Upside today, the $19.00 price area most would likely contain initial strength, beyond which the $22.00 price area is likely and able to contain the balance of the session’s strength.

A settlement today above the $22.00 price area indicates potentially reaching the $27.00 price area within several days.

Downside today, breaking below the $12.00 price area allows a further fall to the $11.00 price area intraday.

A weekly settlement today below the $12.00 price area will likely allow further downside to the $3.00 price area next week.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: What In The History Of Crude Happened Yesterday?

While the markets were spiking last week thanks to some optimism on the COVID-19 vaccine and promising plans to begin a slow reopening of the United States economy, oil is once again marching to the beat of a different drum. 

Having suffered the most precipitous collapse ever with prices never seen before and even trading into the negative, something more positive is apparent. This is not reflected in the immediate trading price. Rather, this is being reflected in future expiring contract trading prices attempting to recover.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye’s volume-based suite of indicators can help you spot opportunities on oil?

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“Crude Corner”: This Week’s Crude Oil Roundup

Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report

Oil dropped to its lowest level in more than 18 years during Wednesday’s trading session amid reports suggesting persistent oversupply and collapsing demand due to COVID-19 outbreak related economic lockdowns.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, United States crude inventories increased by a larger than expected amount of 13.1 million barrels. According to data from the United States Energy Information Administration, for the week ending April 10 inventory increased by 19.2 million barrels.

Analysts had been expecting a rise of 12.02 million barrels. There is no feasible agreement that could possibly cut supply by enough to offset such near-term demand losses.

Headlines Suppressing Demand

Consumer and manufacturing reports for March showed a significant hit to the economy from the COVID-19 outbreak was even swifter and deeper in the early weeks of the shutdown than anticipated.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever recorded in government history. The New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all-time low, declining a shocking 78.2%. Industrial production slipped 5.4%, the largest decline since 1946, and manufacturing was down 6.3%, a record reflecting in part the 28% decline in auto production as plants shut down.

The economic reports showed the double whammy of state shutdowns in mid-March on two pillars of the economy – the consumer and business. The reports were even more dire than expected, and foreshadow even worse declines in April’s activity, with state shutdowns affecting areas responsible for more than 90% of the economy.

Unemployment Suppressing Demand

The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits totaled 5.245 million last week.

Combined with the prior three jobless claims reports, the number of Americans who’ve filed for unemployment over the last four weeks is 22.025 million.

That number is just below the 22.442 million jobs added to payrolls since November 2009, when the U.S. economy began to add jobs back after the recession.

Nearly an Entire Decade of Progress Set Back in Only 4 Weeks Time

In 4 weeks time we have nearly given back all of our employment progress made in the past decade. That’s 22 million cars that don’t get started and driven to work everyday, along with 22 million incomes that have been impacted causing no travel demand, creating limited forms of consumption. In conjunction with heavy over supply and forced suppressed demand due to shutdown orders, the foreseeable future for energy prices look very grim.

On The Charts

Upside Scenario: 38.21 can contain buying through May, once tested the market is susceptible to falling back to 21.83 within 2-3 weeks. On the other hand, a daily settlement above 38.21 would indicate a good low into summer activity, 57.50 then expected within 2-3 months.

Downside Scenario: A weekly settlement below 21.83 (and below the recent 21.51 low weekly- settlement) would indicate 12.17 within 3-5 weeks, the next long-term support threshold able to absorb selling through the year, and regarding 12.17, quite possibly the balance of the decade.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye’s volume-based suite of indicators can help you spot opportunities on oil?

Click here to catch an in-depth class at no cost!

TEVA is on my Radar

In today’s update, I want to share why TEVA is on my radar. TEVA is a value pharma stock that looks to be gaining strength. I show the breakdown in price following volume signatures. Then I show the potential future price based on current volume signatures.

From the charts…

On the Monthly and Weekly charts, I show how Hawkeye Volume shows buying pressure for the past two months, with price firmly at support in a demand zone. This implies bullishness on the short term.

On the Daily chart, I see a bullish price extension on opposing volume… a key indication of potential reversal or short term correction. Based on the current price, I see TEVA going to $10.15 in the short term. If volume starts to show selling pressure in the supply zone there, I expect a continuation to the downside, back to the $8 support area.

The Hawkeye Perspective

TEVA is on my radar for now. Short term bullish, and long term bearish. This value stock could be a real shining star in 2020. It will be easy to spot if you understand volume and price. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

We teach this and other strategies in our upcoming live seminar, called Project V-Swarm Live 2020. We have invited special guests to join us as well, and I’m super excited about what they will bring. Here is the link for more information.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

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Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

All I can say is “Wow”

Wow. All I can say is Wow. The markets continue to make all-time highs, even on low volume. Of course, low volume suggests that the smart money has taken a break and gone on vacation. But that doesn’t keep us from profiting from the very nice “Santa Claus Rally”. In today’s update, I rifle through the major markets showing why.

From the Charts

All the major stock indices have posted new highs this week. The S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell. Staying with the trend and trading your rules have show good fruit I hope. I know the rules I have shared with you are really making a difference, so I hope you are learning with me. All I can say is wow.

One last note is on Gold. I pointed out several weeks ago that gold was starting to glitter again HERE. For the past two days, gold has broken out of consolidation to the upside, and all the signs of a rally are in play. Intraday traders have done well trading to the long side.

The Hawkeye Perspective

How do we know when markets are about to break? I’ll show you everything in our upcoming live training event you don’t want to miss. It’s called Project V-Swarm Live and I would love to meet you there. Here is a link for more information about the event.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

The Markets are Calm after Impeachment Vote

The Markets are Calm

The markets are calm after President Donald Trump’s impeachment vote was approved. In today’s update, I review all the major markets and provide the Hawkeye perspective.

The S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Gold, and Oil markets are all showing muted price today after the US House of Representatives voted to for impeachment. I’m not sure if this is a clear message or not, but one thing is clear: the markets don’t see anything to respond to.

I see potential for the markets to be choppy and range-bound the rest of the week. However, if volatility returns, look for strong pressure for prices to fall sharply back to the daily Hawkeye Trend dots. This would be a healthy correction for the markets anyway, and could setup a potential continuation rally into 2020. But for now, the markets are calm.

You too can learn to trade the Hawkeye way by getting your own copy of our tools during our 40% Off Black Friday sales going on right now in our Store.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Get Solid Base Hits with Confidence

In today’s update, I demonstrate how to get solid base hits with confidence using Hawkeye. When you see volume and price working together, you know when and how to take high probability, low risk trades. In today’s Forex example, I will show you how.

From the charts

Using multiple timeframe analysis, it’s easy to see when the faster timeframes align with the slower ones. Using Hawkeye’s powerful tools, you know ahead of time when the trades take place.

I demonstrate on 15-30-60 minute charts how price action failed to create new highs. This was the first setup. Then the Hawkeye Fatman showed when to expect a potential trend setup as energy flowed from the AUD into the CAD. Next the Hawkeye Zones showed price in a heavy selling pressure area – this is icing on the cake. Finally, after 7-15min price bars of selling pressure, we get a solid sell entry signal from the Hawkeye Trend.

The Hawkeye way

With 7 pips of risk, I showed 43 pips of reward, or almost 7:1 reward:risk ratio. The entry and exit was clear and known ahead of time. I teach this and many other methods in our live weekly training. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

You too can learn to trade the Hawkeye way by getting your own copy of our tools during our 40% Off Black Friday sales going on right now in our Store.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Volatility is on the Move

Volatility is on the move. In today’s update, I want to show my expectations of where price should go, and why. When volatility spikes, markets tank. We have had extreme lows in volatility, and a short term correction was inevitable. But what else is in store?

Downward pressure

From the daily ES chart (S&P 500 e-mini), we see increasing volume and decreasing prices. Price has reached the weekly upper trendline, as shown in yesterday’s update. This should act as short-term support, as we see active demand in this area.

Also, we expect price to possibly retrace back up to the 3121 area, before continuing it’s route back down to 3031ish. This theory is supported by the upper trendline on the CBOE Volatility index ($VIX.X). Applying Hawkeye indicators to volatility has proven to be very enlightening.

The Hawkeye Perspective

With a phantom isolated high in place, we expect to see 3-5 daily price bars of correction. We also expect to see 2958 area hit IF our lower demand zone of 3020 is broken.

These charts help us to see and trade the faster intraday charts. I teach this and other strategies in our weekly training room. Please join us. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

You too can learn to trade the Hawkeye way by getting your own copy of our tools during our 40% Off Black Friday sales going on right now in our Store.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Tesla Showed 40% in 2 Months

Tesla Showed 40% in 2 Months

I brought Tesla back again because it is such a good example. Tesla showed 40% in 2 months, and I show exactly why you would see the exact same thing yourself, in today’s video.

Having the right tools…

You see, volume and price working together is the key to everything we teach at Hawkeye Traders. Couple that with our entire suite of tools, and you have a definitive entry/exit methodology that just works. Having the right set of tools and knowing how to use them can really make a difference in your trading, and in your bottom line.

Trading the right stock…

I spoke about $TSLA back in September. Even though it looked terrible, I saw potential. Volume and price were working together to show a high probability trade.

Less than a month later, our tools identified that entry point, with an alignment of multiple timeframe volume and price… a definitive entry with a predefined risk.

Next, I show how one month later, we saw a predefined exit point that existed since 2018. It was a supply zone (Hawkeye Zones) that gave the definitive exit.

The results speak clearly…

Therefore, with $14 risk (defined by Hawkeye Levels ATR), TSLA showed 40% in 2 months, and a $100 reward, or a 7:1 reward:risk ratio. Trading only 30 shares, the potential return would be over $3000. That’s what volume trading is all about.

You too can learn to trade the Hawkeye way by getting your own copy of our tools during our 40% Off Black Friday sales going on right now in our Store.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Gold Setup Showed $3900 in 1.5 Hours

gold setup showed $3900

Today, a gold setup showed $3900 in 1.5 hours. Following volume and price in the gold markets lead to a rule-based entry with confidence. I review how the expectation was known last week in a previous update.

Daily Charts…

First we review the GLD gold ETF and GDX gold miners ETF, showing the potential reversal signals were validated on the daily charts. The reversal signals at this point are more corrections, but in time, may become full reversals. Only time will tell.

The Strategy…

Based on these corrections, we began looking for intraday trades in the direction of the daily correction.

And today, we were not disappointed. The gold futures contract GC showed us a beautiful rule-based entry right at market open. The entry was lead by volume of course, and show visibly by Hawkeye Volume.

Using 5 contracts, the results were 3:1, 5:1, and 7:1 Reward:Risk levels showing $3900 in potential profits in only 1.5 hours. That’s enough to pay for your Hawkeye Professional Package plus some. Today, the gold setup showed $3900 in 1.5 hours… what will tomorrow bring?

Last chance to get a lifetime license…

Speaking of the Professional Package, our Lifetime Licenses are going away. After they are gone, we will only offer subscriptions. So for a very limited time, you can still lock in the lifetime license until we close the door forever.

Here is the link to learn more about our lifetime licenses, and your last chance to secure one before they go away: https://www.hawkeyetraders.com/traders-programs/

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Seasonality Stock Gave 9% Base Hit

I love to trade seasonality stocks this time of year. Hawkeye provides just the right tools to help you profit from these seasonal moves. In today’s update, I show how AES Corp ($AES) (a seasonality stock) gave a nice 9% base hit in only 23 days.

Using a daily chart, I was triggered to take the trade using the Hawkeye Roadkill, which shows me when the daily aligned with the 2-day and weekly charts. Once I see the entry signal, I enter 1 position (100 shares in this example) on the open following the trigger. Using the Hawkeye Profit Accelerator (ADDS), I then know exactly when and how much to add to my position.

You see, when you add to a strong position, you have confidence it will continue to grow. You know when to get out using the Hawkeye Stops or the Hawkeye Zones. In this case, I used the Hawkeye Zones to show me when price reached resistance (the overhead supply zone).

$AES was a seasonality stock that gave a 9% base hit following proven rules and a great set of indicators. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

$TSLA Gave 30% Gain

nice 30% gain in $TSLA

In a follow-up to my previous post on TSLA, I show how simple rules yielded a nice 30% gain in $TSLA. When volume and price work together, it is a powerful thing. In my previous blog, I said to watch for volume to support any move. Well, here are the results of today’s market update.

With building volume and price, TSLA gave a very nice bullish break of the congestion channel and consolidation wedge formed on the daily chart. This was confirmed with a “double-dot” Hawkeye Roadkill buy signal. Since my price target was projected at $280, a $257 entry would be a 10% target. A 5% risk would be a 2:1 ratio.

But that was not the end of the story. After earnings, $TSLA went on to beat expectations, and price drove up to $340, or about a 30% gain from the signaled entry point. With a 5% risk, that was over 5:1 reward:risk ratio.

I show these examples and historical updates to help you see that following simple rules can lead to good potentially great profits. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Volatility is Back

Volatility is back. All the major markets have failed to produce new highs. With increased tension all over the world, there are definite signs that October will be a volatile month for sure. Here is my market update:

When volatility rises, markets fall… it’s the nature of the beast. Markets fail on uncertainty and chaos… trade wars, impeachment, regional instability, political crusades, manufacturing declines, etc… All of these create uncertainty in the markets, which increases volatility. Irrational exuberance sets in and people do things unexpectedly.

As a result, the markets usually fall during these times of uncertainty. In today’s update, I show how the major markets have failed to make new highs, and are starting to show downtrends. This may or may not be major moves, but one thing is for certain… October is showing all the signs of a turbulent month. Volatility is rising, and the markets are falling. Make sure you are on the right side. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Tesla $TSLA is on my Radar

Tesla is on my radar

Tesla $TSLA is on my radar. In my video update, I show my reasons why I’m watching this visionary car manufacturer. The fundamentals aren’t so good. The technicals aren’t so good either. But volume and supply/demand zones are showing me a different perspective. That’s why Tesla is on my radar, but not in my account yet.

Fundamentally, $TSLA still has negative earnings and a lot of debt. However, it does produce one of the safest electric vehicles on the planet. Recent news about their SolarCity acquisition have caused the stock to drop quickly… not so good.

Technically, $TSLA is on a monthly downtrend with a target at the $156 Hawkeye Zone. The weekly charts shows it in a tight consolidation range (congestion) between $250 and $212. On the daily chart, we see a congested uptrend that will become a congested downtrend today.

$TSLA is now at technical support ($223). If this price breaks below and closes on a daily chart, I’m looking for $212 as a target. If it holds $223, and with good earnings on Oct 25th, I’m looking for $TSLA to break the $266 highs and target $280. Of course, volume must support this, and it’s easy to see with Hawkeye Volume.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

The Markets are Losing Steam

In today’s update, I look at the overall market in terms of futures, showing that the markets are losing steam. All the signs of short-term weakness are here. Watch my analysis from a Hawkeye Perspective in today’s video.

Using daily charts, and a daily Hawkeye Fatboy, I can easily see the relative strength of the market. While the major US markets are strong, they are overbought, and now showing signs of potential weak trends.

The decorrelated markets are Crude oil and Gold. Crude is continuing a choppy trend of strength. All indications are for this to continue. Gold was oversold, but is now in a trend of strength. Buying volume is in support of higher prices in gold.

Overall, the markets are losing steam and showing signs of short-term correction in price. Knowing the longer trend helps us to know how to trade the intraday trends. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

$OSTK is on My Radar!

Overstock $OSTK is officially on my radar. Today, I came across a post on StockTwits about this renegade company. So I pulled up my Hawkeye charts to see what all the talk was about. I like what I found. Here are the details in today’s update.

Looking at the longer term charts gives me a very good picture of where a stock is at. I like to use the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.

The monthly chart shows a congested downtrend. The weekly chart shows a congested uptrend with signs that today, it will break from that congestion and be in full uptrend. While the daily chart is in full uptrend, it has not given me any signals yet to get on board.

Therefore, Overstock $OSTK is on my radar. I will be watching this former “high-flyer” as it looks to be gaining momentum. Learn to trade the Hawkeye Way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

UPDATE: As of 18 Sep 2019, $OSTK not only failed to generate an entry signal, it has all but failed… period! It looked good at first glance, but volume on triple-timeframes kept me out of the trade, and in the safety zone!

Hawkeye is Bullish on Twitter

Hawkeye is bullish on Twitter, symbol TWTR. Our Roadkill indicator signaled an entry for TWTR last week, but it was in congestion. As a result, we could not enter the trade. But if we get positive price action today, the setup could yield a nice entry point. Watch today’s analysis for more details.

TWTR Analysis
Using triple timeframes, you get a real sense of confidence when you see a trade setup. I show TWTR has a monthly uptrend, a weekly uptrend, and a daily congested uptrend. The weekly chart also shows a really nice cup-and-handle formation which is also a bullish indication.

Volume
Hawkeye volume shows very good accumulation and buying pressure on the monthly and weekly charts. Daily chart volume is not so good, but the volume is OK. If TWTR breaks above 42.69 on good volume, we anticipate price to move back up to the $47 range, with a stop at $41.29. That would give a risk:reward of 1:3, and a potential return of about 10%.

It doesn’t take long to become a Hawkeye Trader. Learn today to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Hawkeye is Bullish on ROKU – Find Out Why

Hawkeye is bullish on ROKU

Hawkeye is bullish on ROKU. Finding bullish or bearish stocks is really easy to do in hindsight. But let me show you how I not only identify great trade setups, but how I manage the trade and build into my position.

Using daily, weekly, and monthly charts, I scan the universe of stocks that meet my criteria for size, price and technicals. I follow the Hawkeye 3-Step Entry/Exit Method to make my selection. Then I apply our Profit Accelerator to build the position at key points in the trade.

Hawkeye uses Volume Price Analysis to show the best setups and how to manage the trades, including exits. You too can identify and say Hawkeye is bullish on ROKU. Learn today how to trade the Hawkeye way!

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Follow up: On September 9th, 2019, ROKU posted an engulfing bearish reversal sell signal (price extension on opposing volume). This is an excellent indication to exit the trade and bank your profits.

Trade ETFs with Confidence – The Hawkeye Way

Trade ETFs with Confidence

Anyone can trade ETFs with confidence. In today’s update, I’ll show you how I use two different stock ETFs to always find a bullish trend in the markets. This is very helpful if you can only trade long, especially in an IRA.

In this video, I show how I use my Hawkeye software to identify bullish trends, whether the overall markets are going up or down. I perform the analysis on two stock ETFs: TNA (Small Cap Bullish 3x) and TZA (Small Cap Bearish 3x). These are leveraged ETFs, so I only trade these intraday, and never hold overnight.

The idea is to identify the overall market direction. If it is bullish, I trade the TNA; if it is bearish, I trade the TZA. Analysing the price and volume using Hawkeye gives me the confidence I need to take the trades to their logical conclusion.

You too can trade ETFs with confidence if you learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Trade Consolidation with Confidence – The Hawkeye Way

trade consolidation with confidence

Choppy range-bound markets are hard to trade. But with Hawkeye, you can trade consolidation with confidence. Today’s Hawkeye update shows just how we do it.

The Hawkeye Perspective
If the markets are choppy, this kills trend trading indicators. As soon as you enter, you get stopped out! But we designed a strategy with optimized tick charts, using our unique Hawkeye GearBox indicator. As a result, we trade in harmony with the market. Trends are easier to see and trade. When your are in a range-bound trade, keep your profit targets achievable and within the range.

So when choppy, range-bound markets show up, we have a strategy to trade with confidence. We teach different strategies for different market conditions, because the market does what the market does. We just need to use the right tool for the right conditions. Learn to trade consolidation with confidence using Hawkeye.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Trade Wars and Volatility – Profit Potential Is HIGH on the S&P

Trade Wars and Volatility

Trade wars have caused volatility to spike. Volume showed the early signs for a correction last week. Last Friday Hawkeye signaled a confirmed sell signal on the S&P and Nasdaq markets. As a result, volume and volatility are expanding rapidly; so watch as Randy shows what to expect next.

Look for the Hawkeye Widebar (purple bar on video). We will watch for price to retrace back into the body of this widebar, to about the 1/2 way point. At this point, expect to see either consolidation or reversal.

The Hawkeye Perspective is to see the trade wars continue to cause volatility spikes, and increased downward pressure on Index Future markets. Correspondingly, we expect to see continued price increases in the Bond and precious metals markets.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Market Update and Insights

by Guest Columnist, Max Larsen, Future Finances, Inc.

This week we welcome Max Larsen, President of Future Finances Inc. to the blog as a guest columnist for a review of the week’s economic news. Max is a professional money manager, with $200 million under management and a long time user of Hawkeye.

1. Weekly Wrap
2. Technically Speaking
3. Business Optimism Goes Stratospheric
4. Inflation is Creeping In
5. Johnny Depp – A Lesson on What Not to Do

Weekly Wrap

The past week was rife with earnings, economic data and commentary from two major central banks, but the market shrugged off the busy event calendar remaining in its range bound ways.

The big news of the week was a decent jobs report with employers adding 227,000 jobs last month according to the Labor Department. This was the biggest gain since September although wage increases were rather modest. This from The Wall Street Journal (weekly summary from Briefing.com):

The backdrop of a steady but unspectacular labor market is likely to keep the Fed cautious about raising interest rates and could prevent the central bank from colliding with President Donald Trump as he aims for faster economic growth.

Indices Weekly Figures

We shouldn’t forget about earnings season. Our very own Brad Huffman chimed in:

In addition to a slew of economic reports, earnings season continued to unfold. These were generally supportive of the current trend. The most significant weakness has come from large multinational companies indicating concerns about overseas activity. Despite those concerns, both earnings and sales growth are poised to expand for the quarter.

Please remember that historically speaking February is one of the weakest return months of the year with the worst part coming towards the end. It may not happen this year. There is a lot of money flowing into stocks right now.

Technically Speaking

I have two charts to share today. The first is from Arthur Hill of StockCharts. He points out that it has now been 79 days since we’ve seen greater than a 1% decline in the S&P 500. Talk about “range bound”…

Just look at the bottom indicator called the ROC or rate-of-change. This is nothing more than how much the S&P 500 changed on a percentage basis on a daily basis. I high-lited the 79 days in blue. It denotes a strong market to me.

S&P 500 Chart

The second chart is one you’re very familiar with. This is the 8-months chart of the S&P 500 (daily prices). Notice how we came into the “Support” zone last week and bounced out on Friday.

S&P 500 Chart

I still contend that we are due for a pullback. It may not happen, but I could envision a minor correction to the “Critical Support” area (red high-lite) which would only be less than a 5% retracement and still well within the upward trend line and above the 200 day moving average. We’ll see…

Business Optimism Goes Stratospheric

We have gotten numerous emails and phone calls on people’s concern for the stock market’s lofty state. Once again here’s Brad Huffman on a nice reply that I had to share:

Thanks for the note. The market is responding to views that tax and regulatory changes from the new administration will help improve economic conditions. We do believe in the short term we will see a slight pullback (maybe 5%), but that would be normal and draw in new investors. The technical and fundamental pictures are pretty healthy right now, but volatility will remain present as it did last year.

We have several positions in the portfolio that help us hedge any market swings so unless we see significant deterioration in the charts, we are comfortable with the moderate risk exposure we have in the portfolio.

Brad is correct. Just take a look at the most recent NFIB Small Business Index.

NFIB Small Business Index Chart

Like its title says – it measures the business optimism on a quarterly basis. This stratospheric 38-point jump in the number of business owners who expect better business conditions is staggering.

Whether you like the President or not – and I know there are many who don’t – it is what it is and we have to live with it. That said, there is little doubt the WSJ’s headline hits it on the head: “Trump Pace Has Heads Spinning.” Many businesses are very encouraged that someone is finally attacking the mind-numbing regulations and restrictions.

Inflation is Creeping In

Consumer Price Index YTD ChartWe’re starting to see the possible resurrection of a little inflation. The Eurozone just reported a 1.8% rise in consumer prices while we’re hitting 2.1% in the U.S. The Wall Street Journal chimed in:

After years of fighting against deflation, the U.S., the eurozone and Japan show glimmerings of life in consumer prices and wages, evidence that an era of exceptionally low inflation is receding from the global economic landscape.

Several factors are behind the move, including a rebound in energy prices, falling unemployment which is reducing slack in some labor markets, and central banks’ low-interest-rate policies that spur lending and economic growth.

To be sure, any economic shocks could reverse this trend. Still, this is important since certain asset classes – like commodities and gold – tend to thrive in this environment. However, those sectors which are bond proxies – like telecom services and utilities – tend to do badly when inflation and interest rates rise. Be forewarned…

Johnny Depp – A Lesson on What Not to Do
Johnny Depp

Johnny Depp is having money problems and is suing his business managers for mishandling his finances. It turns out that it may not be all their fault and are counter-suing since the Pirate of the Caribbean star was spending more than $2 million a MONTH to maintain his lifestyle. In spite of repeated warnings he is now having serious money problems. This from CNBC.com:

The lawsuit said Depp paid more than $75 million to buy and maintain 14 homes, including a French chateau and a chain of islands in the Bahamas.

Depp also spent heavily to buy a 150-foot yacht, fly on private jets and cultivate collections of fine art and Hollywood memorabilia requiring 12 storage facilities to maintain, the lawsuit said.

$2 million per month and $75 million in non-income producing assets? What could possibly go wrong? He’s obviously a very talented actor yet it boggles the mind that he could be so inept with his finances – whether he had an advisor or not… You can read the entire article HERE.

That’s more than enough for this week my friends. Congratulations to the New England Patriots. Wow, what a game. Multiple records broken – including the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history. It just goes to show you – never give up. Have a fantastic week!


Join us in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Good trading,

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Full Analysis on the S&P

With so much in the news regarding financial meltdown, let’s take a good Hawkeye look at the eMini.

Monthly S&P Chart
Daily S&P

Firstly look at the Hawkeye Volume – three months of no demand and one month of selling volume, giving you the heads up that the dominant uptrend was going to retrace.

Now, look where I have placed the dotted lines on the price. The higher one shows a double top with the two Hawkeye Pivot dots in yellow, the lower dotted line shows where price came to and found support right at the Hawkeye stops (indicated by the green crosses).

6 Ways a Market Moves shows congestion, and if prices rise next month a Hawkeye Pivot low will be printed. However, if the low of this monthly bar closes under the Hawkeye stops, a down trend will be established.

Weekly S&P Chart
Weekly S&P

A congestion break-out to the downside found support where I have started the blue line on price. Now look at Hawkeye Volume – although a major price move was not accompanied by ultra high volume, just high volume, and at the end of the week, Friday Hawkeye Volume shows buying volume. And if next week is up, a Hawkeye Pivot low will be established

Daily S&P Chart
Monthly S&P

Now it gets interesting. Remember what I teach at Hawkeye seminars – “The Tanker Effect”; when the markets are fast and volatile price shoots through the previous support. Look at the lowest price bar. Three days back it straddled both previous lows (shown by the blue lines on the chart), and rallied on buying volume, followed by two days of neutral volume indicating support as shown by the price action.

And now the final piece. 6 Ways a Market Moves. Look at the Trend dot crunching right up, still down so still a trend run. But if Monday is up the dot will go flat indicating congestion entrance.

We demonstrate this and many other methods in our live demonstration room held every Wednesday, and this is open to everyone. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Good Fortune,

Nigel Hawkes
Hawkeye Traders

[The cyan arrows and red lines are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Are We In Crash Mode? – HAWKEYE Has The Answer

Firstly I do hope you opened the email announcing the International Trading Profits Summit in beautiful, warm Palm Beach, USA in March. I really have assembled a wonderful team of traders to give you the tools and knowledge to make 2016 a fabulous year. Extended to three full days and kept at the same price of $750. So please come along.

Secondly, I wish you a very Happy and Prosperous New Year!

So, lets jump right in and take a look at what the new year is bringing in. All financial letter writers will be talking about the first week of trading, and in particular the stock markets, which have all had nearly a 10% down move from the 2015 highs.

With the markets rallying in the morning session only to be sold off in the afternoon, this the typical thumbprint of a market in crisis, with the bias to the downside. But let’s look at Hawkeye and the charts.

ES Monthly Chart
ES Monthly Chart

You can see where I have placed the yellow dotted line there had been four attempts to break that price, but now we are in congestion. With the Trend dots flat and white, and support off the Hawkeye Zones at 1785, and volume showing no demand and bias to the downside.

ES Weekly Chart
ES Weekly 01-11-16

This makes it all far more visible. Price rejected off the Hawkeye Zones and testing the Hawkeye Zone at 1887. Interestingly, Friday’s volume was normal and close to the bottom of the range which leads me to think that it was an amateur down bar. If the professionals were selling there would have been far more volume.

ES Daily Chart
ES Daily 01-11-16

This really does tell the story – the downtrend on Thursday gave high volume followed by average volume on Friday. Again suggesting amateur selling not professional.

Hawkeye Perspective
This week will tell all. There was good jobs news last week in the USA and the market should have rallied. So let’s see if it finds support off the daily and weekly Zones and rallies.

We certainly don’t want to be long until Hawkeye gives it to us on the daily and weekly. Major support is at hand. But with China in free fall, anything is possible

We demonstrate this and many other methods in our live demonstration room held every Wednesday, and this is open to everyone. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Good Fortune,

Nigel Hawkes
Hawkeye Traders

[The red arrows and lines are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Classic Commodity Setups and Apple Review

Three charts to look at this week.

Let’s start with America’s most widely held stock, Apple.

Apple Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart, I have placed a blue line after Apple had a Wide Bar down (first blue arrow) then rallied back up.

There are now six Hawkeye Pivot lows, and the Trend is neutral, indicating congestion. But look at the Hawkeye Volume (last two blue arrows) – classic accumulation volume. So expect a test to 116 area, and if taken out, the commencement of an uptrend.

Now let’s take a look at Coffee.

Coffee

The Wall St Journal said this week that food prices have increased for the first time in 18 months, and the Brazilian Real is showing strength, which is good news for coffee and the charts are starting to support this.

Let’s look at the monthly chart first. It has a Pivot low coming in (indicated by the cyan arrow) if the price continues up. The weekly has phantom Pivot lows and green buying Volume (indicated by the cyan arrows), and the daily is in up Trend with good accumulation volume over the past two weeks

And finally Live Cattle.

Live Cattle

The monthly chart shows the price right down and found support at the Hawkeye stops (indicated by the cyan arrow). The weekly has a Hawkeye Pivot low and green buying Volume (indicated by the cyan arrow). The daily shows a great example of accumulation volume taking place after a considerable down trend (indicated by the cyan arrow).

Hawkeye Perspective
Be patient, a set up is imminent in all three markets.

We teach you how to get the best out of Hawkeye at our London Seminar on October 18/19 2015. You can find out more here

Now, all of this (and much more) is demonstrated in our FREE training room every Wednesday at 9am Eastern, by my colleague Randy Lindsey.

So, I cannot encourage you enough to come along to the Wednesday room.

Click Here To Reserve Your FREE Seat

Good fortune,

Nigel

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

[The blue, cyan and magenta arrows are included for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Don’t Get Trapped In False Breakouts

A few weeks ago I did some analysis in the Emini, saying last week would be critical and it was.

So lets take a look at the chart.

ES Chart

Where I have drawn the yellow dotted line showed a double top, the bar prior to the magenta arrow broke though but straddled the price.

So, if you were a rookie trader you could be forgiven for thinking it was a breakout to the upside. WRONG! Resistance areas are not rods of steel but rubber bands, so that bar in fact just stretched the resistance area and then came back.

Look at the bar where the magenta arrow is; no part of the bar is touching the blue support up line, hence that is a break of support/resistance.
Hawkeye Perspective
So, you can see the importance of the Hawkeye rule to wait until no part of the bar is touching support or resistance and the Hawkeye Volume is colored in the direction of the breakout.

Now, all of this (and much more) is demonstrated in our FREE training room every Wednesday at 9am Eastern, by my colleague Randy Lindsey.

So, I cannot encourage you enough to come along to the Wednesday room.

Click Here To Reserve Your FREE Seat

Good fortune,

Nigel

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

[The magenta arrows are included for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

A Critical Week for the Emini

I have had a few emails over the last two weeks requesting I give you a Hawkeye analysis of the S&P – so here it is.

To set the stage for the Daily chart, let’s look at the monthly and weekly charts and see what they are telling us. The monthly chart has entered into congestion, based on a Pivot high from three months ago. The weekly chart is also in a wide congestion zone, with the high at 2117, and the low at 1821.75. Current price is closing within the previous wide-range bars, which is what we expect to see.

Now to the interesting part.

This week is a big week. Wednesday begins a two-day FOMC meeting, and the markets will be waiting and choppy till the announcement. So lets look at the chart.

S&P Daily Chart

The magenta down arrow shows overhead resistance. The first cyan up arrow shows the Trend line supporting the market. The second cyan up arrow shows the Trend line on the volume, showing a buying volume profile has started over the last three days. The red arrow pointing to the Roadkill indicator, set to three days, shows no demand volume either up or down. The red arrow on price shows the Trend dot is flattish, showing congestion parameters, Wednesday’s pivot high and Thursday’s phantom pivot low.

Hawkeye Perspective

With news later this week, no swing or position trading till that is announced. Remember you are trading risk. However, all will be revealed when the magenta arrow line is broken or when the cyan up arrow line on price is taken out. Volume is showing an upside bias at the moment.

Now, all of this (and much more) is demonstrated in our FREE training room every Wednesday at 9am Eastern, by my colleague Randy Lindsey.

So, I cannot encourage you enough to come along to the Wednesday room.

Click Here To Reserve Your FREE Seat

Good fortune,

Nigel

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

[The cyan and magenta arrows are included for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

The Next 5 Minutes Could Change Your Trading Results Forever

There is no end to the debates among active traders about the pros and cons of swing trading vs. scalping. And the debate has been going on for years. However, in my opinion, two of the greatest failings of most traders are:

  • They trade on too short of a time frame
  • They fail to hold their trades for the maximum profits.

So, in this week’s article, I will highlight how to resolve these two problems by swing trading with Hawkeye indicators.

Below, I’ve included six charts in different time frames and markets. They span everything from stocks to bonds and commodities to Forex. Frankly, I could have included dozens of charts, because these principles of swing trading apply in any market. And by using Hawkeye indicators, finding extremely profitable entries and exits is easy.

The key thing to remember is to wait for the best entries, when all three time frames are in agreement. To illustrate, on each chart, I’ve marked the point where all time frames are in agreement and we are presented with a safe and easy entry as marked by the red and cyan arrows.

In every case, you can see that by waiting until all three timeframes are in agreement, you can enter a long and profitable trend. Then, by holding the trade until your profit target is hit, or you are stopped out, you can make significant profits without all the flurry of trying to get in and out with scalp trading.

Please take a few minutes to carefully study the charts below.

Stock – (Google)

Stocks - Google

Forex – (AUDNZD)

Forex - AUDNZD

Crude

Crude Oil

US Bonds

US Bonds

Stocks – (BHP)

Stocks - BHP

Forex – (AUDUSD)

Forex - AUDUSD

Now, all of this (and much more) is demonstrated in our Wednesday room by my colleague Randy Lindsey.

So, I cannot encourage you enough to come along to the Wednesday room.

Click Here To Reserve Your Seat

Good fortune,

Nigel

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

[The red and cyan arrows are included for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Sick Of Head-Fakes and Other Losing Trades? Here’s The Solution

One of the biggest frustrations for traders is entering a trade, only to see it immediately reverse against them. That’s why I developed the Hawkeye Heatmap indicator. Its purpose is to give an objective indication of the strength of a trend. By entering trades in the direction of a strong trend, Hawkeye traders can significantly boost their profits and reduce their losses.

In this week’s article, I’ll show several examples of how the Heatmap works and how easily it reveals the strength of the underlying trend.

Let’s begin our discussion with this first chart of the E-mini (from July 3, 2015).

Emini Chart

The Heatmap (on the bottom) takes the three variable inputs from the Hawkeye Trend — conservative, normal and aggressive, and shows you visually when all three trends have locked into place. This gives you a clear view of the overall market sentiment and quantifies risk.
Heatmap works in all timeframes and displays four color variations:

  • RED – The markets are in a strong downtrend and bearish
  • GREEN – The markets are in a strong up trend
  • DARK RED OR DARK GREEN – one or two of the trend speeds have locked out of the trend, and the market may be pausing into a congestion area or reversing.

In the example above (where I have the number 1), it shows that the trend is in congestion, as you can see by the white dots.

But, if you look at the Heatmap underneath, it’s in dark red, which is telling us that the bias is to the downside, however, all three trends are not in sync. So, if you want a safer entry, you would wait until point number 2, where the Heatmap goes bright red, and then down it goes.

Similarly, let’s consider the long entry as marked by numbers 3 and 4.

You can see that the trend has gone from bright red to dark red, showing us that the trend is weakening. One or two of the trends have clicked out (hence that’s why it goes to the darker red at point three).

And then, at point 4, the Heatmap goes bright green, and up it goes.

At the number 5, you can see the trend goes flat, the Heatmap goes dark color (telling us that the trend momentum is stalled), and the bias is still to the long side.

Then, at number 6, Heatmap goes bright read and prices immediately drop.

Now, the next example is the weekly chart of Apple, the most widely held stock in America.

Apple Weekly Chart

And again, you can see at point 1, we have two dots of white, and then, the Heatmap goes dark red, followed by bright red. And bang! Down it goes. At the number 2, the Heatmap goes from bright red to dark red, showing that the trend strength is dissipating. And then, it goes bright green and bang! Up it goes. The same for point 3, where you see the Heatmap goes dark red, showing us that we are in a trend pause. We have entered congestion, and at point 3, Bang! The Heatmap goes green, and up it goes.

At point 4, although white dots come in (showing us that the trend is going flat), the Heatmap gives you the confidence to stay in this trend and continue on up, because it is just saying everything is in place.

Lastly, let’s consider the daily chart of Crude.

Crude Daily Chart

You can see that at point 1, we have gone into a trend congestion, and our Heatmap has gone dark red. Then, at point 2, the Heatmap goes bright green, and off we go up to point 3.

At point 3, you can see that the Heatmap has gone dark green, showing us that the strength has gone out of this up move. Although the bias is still to the upside, there is no momentum in this. And the circle that I have drawn around three all the way across to four is something that took me many hours to perfect and find out the answer.

And, I haven’t seen any other software out there that would run for that length of time just showing congestion. Then, at point 4, the Heatmap goes bright red and Bang! In it comes, and the market starts selling off.

So in summary, the Hawkeye Heatmap solves one of the biggest frustrations for traders. That of entering a trade, only to see it immediately reverse against them. By simply entering trades in the direction of a strong trend, Hawkeye traders can significantly boost their profits and reduce their losses.

Now, all of this (and much more) is demonstrated in our Wednesday room by my colleague Randy Lindsey.

So, I cannot encourage you enough to come along to the Wednesday room.

Click Here To Reserve Your Seat

Good fortune,

Nigel

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

 

ANNOUNCING: An Exciting New Breakthrough For Intraday Traders

One of the biggest challenges intraday traders face each day is determining what time frame to trade. That’s why I developed Hawkeye’s Gearbox and Gearchanger.

These world-class innovative tools show you, day-in and day-out, the absolute best way to trade the markets using tick charts.

So in this article, I will walk you through how these tools work to give you much greater insight into what’s really going on in the markets and how to trade them more profitably.

On the right hand side of the chart below, notice that there are four labels. First, there’s 5816 which represents the slowest tick speed trade you should currently consider using.

Next, there’s 2908 (marked in yellow), which is the medium time, followed by the blue, which is the fast time. And finally, the cyan is the ultra-fast time frame you should use for scalping.

Emini Gearbox

As an illustration, just as a cyclist has to change gears when they approach a hill, we as traders need to change gears as market conditions change. For example, look at the spikes on the above Gearbox chart. Notice how at one point, it goes up to over eight thousand ticks and then, drops right down to under 5000 ticks.

Obviously, as market conditions change like this, our approach needs to change, because we must trade in harmony with the speed of the market. And that’s what the Gearbox does. It shows us what tick speed to use. And the best part is that this works on all trading instruments including forex, stocks, and commodities.

Now, Gearbox is coupled with a second tool that I call the Gearchanger, which is displayed in the multi-color chart below.

Emini Gearchanger

When the GearChanger is blue, you should be trading in the fast tick speed. When it’s yellow, it tells you to trade the normal speed. And when it’s red, it’s telling you the market has slowed down, so you should trade at a slower speed.

Let’s continue with an example of using Gearbox on the EURUSD currency pair.

EURUSD Gearbox chart

See how the tick speed fluctuates a lot each day? And when we couple this with our EURUSD Gearchanger chart below, you can see how it tells you exactly what tick chart to trade in harmony with the market as it speeds up and slows down. As you learn more about these tools, you’ll come to realize how powerful these two tools can be in your trading.

EURUSD Gearchanger

Also, if you are a stock trader, these two tools can also help your trading. Here’s an example using them on Netflix (NFLX).

NFLX Stocks Gearbox Chart

Notice the amazing amount of volatility on the chart! If you were just trading a time chart, you would have no visibility into what was going on with all this time volatility. Using a 5 minute chart would be far too fast when this is at the top around 900 ticks. And, it would be far too slow when you are at the bottom about 89 ticks.

And next, here is the Gearchanger on NETFLIX which throughout the day would tell you which chart to look at and which chart to trade from:

NFLX Stocks Gearchanger

So, in conclusion you can see how powerful these two tools are. Every day and throughout each day, they reveal what is the best tick speed to trade with. If you haven’t been successful in intraday trading yet, this is the key that you have been looking for, especially when coupled with Hawkeye Volume.

Now, all of this (and much more) is demonstrated in our Wednesday room by my colleague Randy Lindsey.

So, I cannot encourage you enough to come along to the Wednesday room.

Click Here To Reserve Your Seat

Good fortune,

Nigel

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

 

What Do Apple And The ES Have In Common?

In today’s article, I’ll start with the chart of Apple, because it is so similar to what is happening on the E-mini chart. So first up, notice where I have put the yellow dotted line, where the first red down-arrow is, and how Hawkeye had a phantom isolated high at that point on the 27th of February at a price of 133.60.

Apple Weekly Chart

As you can see from that point, the market has just gone sideways, although the trend dot is slightly rising.

Now, the volume that is displayed on the chart doesn’t show a Hawkeye Volume Radar dot on it, because one wasn’t generated. Which means that although this appears to look like high volume, the fact is that it was just average volume.

And if we look at the range of the bar, it was an average price range bar, which means there was no selling coming into this at that time. It is just in its distribution mode. And if you look at the volume at the bottom, which I have circled, you can see that it is classic cyclical change of trend volume, where you would go red, green, no demand with the whites, etc. You can see that it’s trying to make up its mind in a distribution phase.

And unless it breaks out of the 133.60 range and closes at the end of the week right up above that mark with the rising trend dot, we’re still going to be in our weekly cyclical change of direction. We will still be in our trend pause mode and distribution. We will be in our congestion zone at the top of the market waiting for enough volume to come in to push the market up. But when I show you the ES, you’ll see that it is totally dependent on that chart.

Now, let’s move on to the ES chart.

ES Weekly Chart

As you can see, I have placed a cyan arrow pointing up. That occurred on February 27, and that isolated high, which is been indicated by the yellow dot on the Hawkeye has held all the way since 27 February.

And this week we visited that price, and it hit it and backed off again. As you can see, there are four red arrows, showing you that there have been four attempts to get through there, and all have failed. If you look at the volume, again you can see that is total topping volume going on. It’s not a trend volume, because trend volume would all be green. But you can see that there’s red, green, white no demand, red, green, green, green.

So in the last four weeks, you’ve had green buying volume coming into the ES, but the price hasn’t moved. It really hasn’t gone up, and it achieved a breakout of that high on February 27, and continued a trend run. So this week is a very important week, because it really has to do something.

So, any of the Gann traders who read this, you know that WD Gann said; on the fourth or fifth attempt prices normally go through support and resistance. Well, it backed off on this fourth attempt to get through this resistance.

And this coming week, we’re going to see whether that was a back off, or whether it is going to go back up through the isolated high yellow line that I’ve drawn off the pivot high that occurred on February 27th. So, in fact, if you look at the two charts also, between the ES and the Apple, you can see that time-wise they are both struggling around those price areas, and that were achieved on February 27th.

So, it’s going to be an interesting week coming up, and let’s watch it carefully. It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to see how this plays itself out. At the moment, the market is in total congestion on both markets, and we are waiting to see breakouts occur to the upside this coming week.

Good fortune,

Nigel

We demonstrate this and many other methods in our live demonstration room held every Wednesday, and this is open to everyone. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Hawkeye’s View of the Dollar, the S&P Emini, and Apple

Let us begin by doing a review of the dollar, because it is in an amazing uptrend.

Dollar Index

There are a variety of fundamental reasons for this. One is that the Fed is expected to tinker with interest rates soon, and many are predicting that it will be in June. Another, because of the conflicts around the world, particularly because of ISIS, money is flowing into safe havens. This is all having a huge effect on the stock market. A lot of exporters are being hit and are losing some of their bottom line because of this high dollar. So, the exporters are feeling the pinch. And, as the dollar continues on this huge trend, expect more.

And now, if we have a look at the ES, there is a critical point, and that is 2110.25.

S&P Emini

This area has a Hawkeye High Pivot. And the weekly has to close above 2110.25 on this Friday to show that is in an uptrend. Otherwise, we are entering congestion on the ES, and we are also in congestion on the daily. We have to take out this area – 2110.25 – with no part of the weekly bar straddling it this coming Friday.

And that will indicate that an uptrend is on its way.

Now, let’s look at Apple. I’ve given you two charts on Apple, both the daily and weekly. And, you can see that where I have circled the Hawkeye volume, we have a typical congestion entrance set up.

Apple Weekly

That is because the volume is not showing continuously green volume. It is showing buying, selling, buying, selling, showing chop. And, where my first red arrow on the weekly is, you can see that I have a phantom high there. And on my second arrow, although I have green volume, the close is in the mid part of the bar. But look at my trend dot, because it is starting to flatten out, showing that the momentum to the upside is stalling, and distribution could be taking place.

Apple Daily Chart

Now, if we go over to the daily, you can see quite clearly that we are already in congestion on Apple, and you can see that I again have circled the volume which goes all the way back to the beginning of March showing typical oversold volume coming into the market. And the market going into its distribution phase. Now, it will probably break out to the downside until fair value is hit, and it will continue in this overall monthly trend to the upside. But, this is a very critical point for us and Apple this week again. We want to see it put in a long trend in the daily to give us any confidence that this is going to the upside. So, all in all, it looks very interesting

Don’t forget, if you haven’t picked up a copy of the Hawkeye Volume Starter Package yet, please CLICK HERE, and get started using Volume to start increasing your profits today!

Great Trading!

Nigel Hawkes

We teach this and many other methods in our live training room held every Wednesday. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

[The red lines and arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Want to profit from Volume? Here’s how.

Apple is the most widely held stock in America.

If you look at the daily chart, you can see it has been in an uptrend for quite some time. There was a brief pull-back in late June, and then, it continued upwards on declining volume.

Apple Daily

However, notice throughout the pullback, it didn’t break the Stop or Crash Barrier indicators (indicated by the green crosses and the solid green line).

Now, notice the point where I’ve marked the chart with a cyan-colored arrow. You can see that when prices began to rise, volume was increasing and how it pushed the market up.

Next, see the large magenta-colored bar on July 8th? That tells us the market will most likely go into a pause (in fact, this Widebar indicator is accurate about 80% of the time).

As I write this weekly newsletter (on Monday, July 14th), you can see that the current bar is pushing out above the magenta bar.

But please remember, if you’re trading is based on daily and weekly charts, I don’t consider there to be a breakout until ALL of the current bar is above the support or resistance.

At the moment, the current bar is straddling the resistance, and you can see this if you draw a line off the top of the magenta bar.

So, I would still say that this market is currently in congestion on neutral volume.

Now, if we look at the weekly chart, you can see that Apple is in a power trend up.

Apple Weekly Chart

And, you’ll also notice, this is happening on green buying volume, with the Hawkeye trend dots moving up in a very orderly manner.

So, all of this points to a market that is being accumulated.

But of course, if you look at lower time-frames (like the daily), you’ll see the whip-lash of the vibration, but it holds firm in this trend.

It appears that this trend will continue its way up, providing the overall index goes up.

So, what is the Hawkeye perspective on Apple?

Apple is in an uptrend, it’s in congestion on the daily, working its way out of the wide bar range, which occurred on the 8th of July, but is in total harmony with the weekly chart.

Good trading!

Nigel Hawkes

 

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

 

The ‘Its easy to trade’ gang are out in force..a must see event, and one to watch

This week Mike Smith reports direct from the Hawkeye Options desk.

Here we go again – out from the woodwork they come…
Its earnings season and so out pop the latest plethora of NEW; INNOVATIVE; EASY; PROVEN etc. etc. headlines about a strategy that has been around as long as options have been in existence.

They say straddles and strangles are the way to trade a high volatility market (by definition it isn’t a volatile market by the way – just look at where the VIX is – there is a difference between choppy and volatile – a later discussion perhaps).

They will promise that this new (lol!) innovative strategy, where you buy a call and a put, an each way bet if you like…as THE ONLY way to make money in this market

(AND of course Barracuda at 191% end of day last session in less than 7 months is evidence that this is nonsense).

They will fail to mention that options prices go up pre-earnings – a little thing called implied volatility – (which is in simple terms, a forward looking measure based on how likely something could move from its current position – in an individual option position there is NO time when this is at a temporary high just before an earnings report). So you can pay over the odds for a call and pay over the odds for a put, and the underlying has got to make a massive movement for you just to break even.

Perhaps we will run a session on this, as there are ways to overcome such issues, but we have other fish to fry right now…just be aware.

A happier note…
Onto the happy stuff. As we are in week 1 of earnings season, I have put a blog post up at HawkeyeOptions.com that may be interesting. This explores the reasons why the pessimism pre-earnings (as seen in the recent market pullback) may lead to a continuation of the bull market we are still in (see the weekly trend in the SPY). You can read more here.

And after earnings..?
So, we are in a new quarter and as usual I am going to run a FREE open session, which looks into the crystal ball (which has been on the button the last 6 quarters these have been running).

Where you will hear

  • Our predictions for US and global equity markets this quarter.
  • Which strategies may work and which to avoid (as they are likely to rip away huge chunks of your capital).
  • The 5 things you MUST monitor this quarter to ensure you are at the front of the pack when things are likely to change.
  • Our predicted date for the next market correction and the catalyst that may drive it.
  • Where next for precious metals (and this may surprise you)?
  • And we will be revealing 4 stocks that are most likely to outperform the market between now and the end of June.

Although with an equities/options/ETF bias, whatever you trade this is ESSENTIAL information. You can register here.

This is simply a service we offer to all those who have expressed an interest in what we do and is a NO SELL zone session.

Feel free to share this link with others as it IS an open session.

And finally..

Watch YAHOO…yesterday’s earnings attracted some massive buying interest in after hours trading.

As always…trade safe and learn with passion.

Mike Smith

Hawkeye teaches you to Swing!

Apple, the most highly held stock in the USA, is great to swing trade. Let Hawkeye teach you how to swing trade the $AAPL.

Chart 1 - Apple 60-Minute Chart

appl 60 mins

This 60 minute chart shows that the market has entered congestion and the unique Hawkeye Volume indicator is showing accumulation volume (as indicated by the cyan arrow).

Chart 2 - Apple 30-Minute Chart

appl 30

Although the 30-minute trend has been up there is no volume support and the 60-minute trend is flat (as indicated by the cyan arrow). So although the bias was to the long side, volume was not pushing up prices but showing accumulation.

Note: the cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective - Swing Trade

Market bias is to the long side, as shown by the 30 and 60 minute charts, where both are showing accumulation. Even the 120 minute chart (not shown) is showing accumulation. But patience is required - a break above the last pivot high on the 30-minute chart (indicated by the yellow dot) at 530 will show the commencement of the swing trade. So, did we show you how to swing trade with Apple?

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Hawkeye Shows One Great Stock.

The markets are correcting and the Dow is in daily and weekly downtrends. The ES is also in a daily downtrend but the weekly charts show congestion. Weak stocks are tumbling. This is the time for stocks that are strong, as they will probably get stronger when the market returns to an uptrend.

Lets look at Facebook as an example.

Chart 1 - Daily

This daily NASDAQ chart shows a new volume buy entry with accumulating volume (indicated by the red arrow).

facebook daily

Chart 2 - Weekly

This weekly NASDAQ chart shows a wide magenta bar indicating twice average true range (indicated by the red arrow). Normally the price will consolidate here and then push up through the high of the wide bar.

facebook weekly

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

When prices close higher than the wide bar on the weekly this will indicate strength and an entry to the long side. Warning: if the indices are still falling wait until they turn.  You are trading risk so you need to wait for a low risk entry. NASDAQ rising and Facebook rising – a potentially great trade!

Hawkeye Volume Told You 10 Days Before the Market Sold Off

The Dow (YM) is a classic example of selling distribution volume.

Chart 1 Daily

This shows 10 days of selling volume occurring at the top of the uptrend (indicated by the red arrows), with the Hawkeye trend going white indicating no momentum.

 

dow daily

Chart 2 Weekly

This shows three weeks of neutral volume (indicated by the red arrow) with a Hawkeye pivot (red arrows) to the left so we expect a 3,5,7 bar reversal.

dow  weekly

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software

Hawkeye Perspective

Until 15,640 is broken on close this is just a pull back in uptrend. If that price level is broken a new weekly downtrend will be in place.

 

 

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