Let us begin by doing a review of the dollar, because it is in an amazing uptrend.
There are a variety of fundamental reasons for this. One is that the Fed is expected to tinker with interest rates soon, and many are predicting that it will be in June. Another, because of the conflicts around the world, particularly because of ISIS, money is flowing into safe havens. This is all having a huge effect on the stock market. A lot of exporters are being hit and are losing some of their bottom line because of this high dollar. So, the exporters are feeling the pinch. And, as the dollar continues on this huge trend, expect more.
And now, if we have a look at the ES, there is a critical point, and that is 2110.25.
This area has a Hawkeye High Pivot. And the weekly has to close above 2110.25 on this Friday to show that is in an uptrend. Otherwise, we are entering congestion on the ES, and we are also in congestion on the daily. We have to take out this area – 2110.25 – with no part of the weekly bar straddling it this coming Friday.
And that will indicate that an uptrend is on its way.
Now, let’s look at Apple. I’ve given you two charts on Apple, both the daily and weekly. And, you can see that where I have circled the Hawkeye volume, we have a typical congestion entrance set up.
That is because the volume is not showing continuously green volume. It is showing buying, selling, buying, selling, showing chop. And, where my first red arrow on the weekly is, you can see that I have a phantom high there. And on my second arrow, although I have green volume, the close is in the mid part of the bar. But look at my trend dot, because it is starting to flatten out, showing that the momentum to the upside is stalling, and distribution could be taking place.
Now, if we go over to the daily, you can see quite clearly that we are already in congestion on Apple, and you can see that I again have circled the volume which goes all the way back to the beginning of March showing typical oversold volume coming into the market. And the market going into its distribution phase. Now, it will probably break out to the downside until fair value is hit, and it will continue in this overall monthly trend to the upside. But, this is a very critical point for us and Apple this week again. We want to see it put in a long trend in the daily to give us any confidence that this is going to the upside. So, all in all, it looks very interesting
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[The red lines and arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]