Understanding Market Correlation For More Precise Trading

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Understanding Market Correlation For More Precise Trading

I hope your week is off to a great start!

Today I want to talk about market correlation… and how we can see correlation between multiple markets to help us in our trading.

Now, when markets are correlated, it means they are moving essentially in step with one another.

The benefit of knowing how correlated or uncorrelated individual markets are is that it can give you a broader perspective on the overall nature of the market at large…

And help you diversify your portfolio to reflect the changing degrees of correlation if needed.

Now, at Hawkeye we have a tool that was developed specifically to measure correlation between several markets or instruments…

It’s a tool called the Hawkeye Fatboy, and it instantly reveals which markets are correlating and which are not, giving you valuable insight into the overall market with one quick glance.

Here’s a look at the Fatboy set to my own personal settings.

Now, what we’re primarily looking at here is the group of wavy bands that are moving along together mainly between the green and red horizontal lines.

(The single red and yellow band across the bottom is a new indicator that’s still in development at the moment.)

Now, the first step in using the Fatboy is to set the indicator to track the particular markets or instruments that you normally trade and want to analyze for correlation.

Personally, I set my Fatboy to track equities futures across 4 major indexes: the S&P (ticker ES), the Nasdaq (NQ), the Dow (YM), and the Russell (RTY).

I also have crude oil (CL) and gold (GC) tracking on the Fatboy to help me see how they’re being impacted by the indices and vice versa.

So, each one of those wavy bands represents one of those instruments that I’m tracking.

The more tightly bound those bands are to one another, the stronger their correlation.

As the bands begin to spread apart from each other, they’re less and less correlated.

So, when two or more bands appear to be sitting on top of one another, that’s a very strong degree of correlation.

Now, looking at these particular markets and their current position on the Fatboy, we see that the Russell (the pink band) is building strength…

… While the other indices are losing strength.

But how exactly does understanding correlation or non-correlation help you in your trading?

Well, typically when you see uncorrelated markets, you can expect choppy, range-bound price action.

On the other hand, when you see a strong correlation between certain markets or instruments, you’ll typically see nice corresponding trends.

Now, here’s what’s great about the Fatboy: It doesn’t only show correlation and non-correlation.

See, those horizontal red and green bars represent areas of overbuying and overselling, so you can see where the instruments that you’re tracking are in relation to being overbought or oversold.

In essence, the Fatboy tells you three things in one easy indicator: whether an instrument is gaining or losing energy…

Whether the instrument is overbought or oversold…

And how correlated that instrument is with other instruments that you’re tracking.

Now, in the next edition, we’ll talk more about the pros and cons of trading correlated and non-correlated instruments.

In the meantime, you can learn more about the basis of the Hawkeye methodology and our flagship indicator by watching a comprehensive training video — just click here to view it now!

How To Manage Trades For More Profits

Yesterday, I showed you how Hawkeye Roadkill helps us identify prime trade setups and entries. 

But here’s the thing… 

Getting into a trade is the easy part. 

Managing that trade and knowing when to get out is what will determine whether you take home a healthy profit… 

Or whether you get stopped out for a loss. 

Today, I want to show you another one of my favorite Hawkeye tools that helps me manage my trades and take the most profit I possibly can. 

Check out the video for the details… 

And if you haven’t yet watched our in-depth training video that walks you through Hawkeye’s proprietary indicators and profitable methodology, then click right here to watch it now!

The Only Kind Of Roadkill You Don’t Want To Pass Up

Hey Traders, 

In today’s video blog, I’m showing you the best kind of Roadkill you’ll ever come across… 

The kind that can lead you to profitable trade entries with ease. 

I’m also really excited… and yes, even a tad nervous… because today is my first ever LIVE event. 

It’s happening at 1 p.m. Eastern, and if you haven’t registered yet, you can get all the details in the video:

And if you haven’t yet watched our in-depth training video that walks you through Hawkeye’s proprietary indicators and profitable methodology, then click right here to watch it now!

This Hawkeye Trader Has Something Very Special To Share…

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again…

The best part of my job is seeing the success of fellow Hawkeye traders.

Nothing makes me happier than watching a trader come into our community…

Embrace our methodology…

And ultimately break through and achieve the success they’d only previously dreamed about.

Because the truth is, that success is 100% attainable.

It just takes a disciplined approach…

A strong mindset…

The right tools…

And a proven strategy.

Now, we’ve had plenty of incredible success stories over the years.

But when this trader that I’m about to introduce you to told me the kind of success he was seeing with his trading thanks to Hawkeye…

I knew he had something really special.

And now that he’s achieved the security, freedom, and lifestyle of his dreams for himself and his family…

He wants to pay it forward to the Hawkeye community.

Now, some of you are already familiar with Anthony from his newsletter, Big Energy Profits…

And many of you have interacted with him directly in our Hawkeye Inner Circle Skype group.

But for those of you who aren’t familiar with Anthony or his inspiring story, let me tell you a little bit about him.

See, 10 years ago, Anthony’s life looked much, much different than it does today.

He was doing all he could to keep his family’s automotive repair business above ground…

While balancing four mortgages… car payments… credit card debt… and massive overhead associated with the business.

More than once, bankruptcy looked like a viable option for Anthony and his family’s business…

The business they’d built from the ground up, from its modest start in Anthony’s grandparent’s garage.

Anthony knew that if he didn’t find a solution, his family stood to lose everything.

Well, as so many folks do, Anthony decided to try his hand at the markets…

And he credits Hawkeye with giving him the tools he needed to blaze a path from where he was…

To where he is now.

100% debt free…

Enough money in the bank to send his kids to the top universities multiple times over…

And the freedom of time to live a life on his own terms.

See, using Hawkeye, Anthony has developed a rather genius trade strategy that he has mastered over the course of a decade.

He spends less than an hour at his trading station every week…

And last year, he cleared nearly $400,000 in profits.

This year, he’s on track to break the one-million mark.

What’s most intriguing is that he does it trading just one single instrument.

Now, as I said, Anthony has refined, fine-tuned and tweaked this strategy over years and years of diligent, patient and grueling back-testing and development.

And now, it runs like a well-oiled machine.

This Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern, he’s going to hold a live training event to share all the details of how it works…

And offer you a very special chance to join his brand new trade service which will allow you to take the exact same trades he’s taking…

And to profit right alongside him.

You can learn more about Anthony, his story, and this potentially life-changing opportunity by clicking right here.

This is an event you will not want to miss!

Different Timeframes for Different Strategies

In today’s video blog I’m breaking down how different timeframes accommodate different trade strategies and styles… 

And showing you the timeframes that I personally use in my various approaches to trading. 

The beauty of it, of course, is that Hawkeye is effective on ANY timeframe… 

ANY trade style… 

And ANY strategy. 

Check out the video to see more… 

And if you’re ready for a more in-depth look at the Hawkeye methodology and to see how you can get started with Hawkeye today, click here to watch a comprehensive training video!

2 Breakthroughs This Weekend and a Look at the Charts

Today I want to talk to you about breakthroughs. 

Breakthroughs can happen across many different aspects of our lives… 

And it was really cool to witness two breakthroughs in my personal life over the weekend. 

But here’s the thing… 

Breakthroughs don’t come without effort, patience, and resiliency. 

Check out the video to get my take on achieving breakthroughs plus a look at the charts for the week ahead…  

AND get a sneak peek at something very special that’s coming your way soon:

And if you’re ready to see exactly how Hawkeye can help you if you’re seeking a breakthrough in your trading, click here to watch a comprehensive training video!

Your Trade Plan Is Worthless Without This…

Over the past several issues we’ve been talking about the 3 keys to a winning trading plan.

We’ve covered key No. 1, which is to have your trading plan in writing…

And we’ve also talked extensively about key No. 2, which is to backtest and forward test your plan.

Now, we’re ready to tackle the third… and most important… key to a winning trade plan.

Ready?

The third key is to TRADE YOUR PLAN!

Here’s the reality…

Even the best trade plan in the world will FAIL if you don’t stick to it or are unable to trade it in a live market.

I mean, the whole point of developing a trade plan…

Putting it in writing…

And taking the time to backtest and forward test it is to ensure that you have the best chance of success in the live markets.

But all that hard work will be for nothing if you stray from the plan once you actually go live.

Now, I’ve been coaching traders for a long time.

And you’d be surprised at some of the things I’ve heard when trades didn’t go their way.

“It was a fat-finger trade…”

“The dog hit my trade button…”

“I fell asleep…”

I mean, I’ve heard every excuse in the world.

And you know what they say about excuses.

At the end of the day, only YOU can ensure that you actually stick to your trading plan.

Now, another thing to keep in mind is that there are aspects of live trading that no trade plan, no matter how well-researched or thought out, can account for.

I’m talking about things like order fills and slippage issues.

Trades that were good in testing might not have actually filled in a live market due to low volume or limited transactions at that price.

So, you should always account for slippage in your trades, because it will make your results much more realistic.

Other unforeseen factors that can lead to unexpected losses include your server going down…

Your internet connection failing…

Natural disasters…

And unexpected news events.

Look, even the best trader with the best plan can’t predict things like these.

So it’s important to keep them in mind when assessing your plan…

And it’s important to have a backup plan just in case disaster strikes.

So, there you have it…

The 3 keys to a winning trading plan.

Remember: it’s easy to get into trading.

The true challenge is in becoming a SUCCESSFUL trader.The true challenge is in becoming a SUCCESSFUL trader.

And I can promise you one thing…

Every trader who achieves success has put in countless hours of behind-the-scenes work…

Most likely over the course of years and years.

Remember, you only get out what you put in…

So if you’re serious about making it as a trader, you’re going to have to commit yourself to it.

Of course, having the right tools and techniques on your side is a major part of the process…

So if you’d like to learn more about how Hawkeye’s suite of trading tools and our 3-Step Method for managing trades can help you, then then click right here to view a comprehensive training video!

Testing Your Trade Plan for Maximum Impact

I hope you’re well after a long Labor Day weekend!

In our last issue, we began breaking down the second key to a winning trade plan…

Which is to backtest and forward test your strategy.

Now, we mainly focused on backtesting last time…

And before we move on to the third and final key to a winning trade plan, we need to talk more about forward testing and cover some words of caution regarding both forward and backtesting.

Now, you may be more familiar with forward testing than you are with backtesting, even if you’ve never heard it referred to as “forward testing” before.

Forward testing is where you actually trade your plan following all the rules in a live market…

Except that the trades are executed in a simulated (sim) account.

See, backtesting helps you dial in your strategy…

But forward testing is where you get to prove whether the work you did in backtesting paid off or not.

Simulated trading — a.k.a. forward testing — is a great way to build confidence in your strategy and your ability to execute it under live market conditions.

Now, one of the keys to successful forward testing is keeping detailed records.

You need to log everything that happens during each trading session, so that you can remember later as you’re tweaking and refining your strategy.

Another major key to forward testing is that you are not putting any real money into the markets!

This is what makes sim trading so beneficial.

It allows you to trade in real time under real market conditions… without putting any real money on the line.

Now, some folks will tell you that this is precisely what makes sim trading not beneficial.

They say that there’s no way to replicate the emotions that come with putting actual money on the line during a real trade.

However… I disagree.

You see, the mind is an extremely powerful tool.

And the reality is that if you approach your forward testing with the same mindset that you would approach a live trade with, you’d be surprised at how realistic it really can feel.

Now, there are some things you need to watch out for as you backtest and forward test your plan.

First, don’t backtest over extremely long periods of time relative to your timeframe.

For example, if you trade on the 5 minute timeframe, don’t backtest two years of data.

It’s simply not going to help you.

Second, be careful of over-optimizing your plan while backtesting.

If you recall, last time we said that when you select a period of historical data to backtest, you should divide it into thirds.

Two-thirds of the data will be your “in-sample data,” which you’ll use to run your trade plan and tweak, alter and optimize the strategy…

While the final third will be your “out-of-sample data” which you’ll simply use to verify the results of your strategy.

However, it is completely possible to over-optimize your plan based on the in-sample data to try and maximize your profits based solely on that data…

Which will only hurt you in the long run.

So, remember to generalize your in-sample testing and tweaking and avoid “curve fitting” your strategy.

Otherwise, you could end up with a plan that produces incredible profits on one specific historical data set…

But performs poorly in live markets.

OK, that wraps up Key 2 to a winning trading plan…

And next time, we’ll cover the third and final key.

But in the meantime, if you want a much more in-depth look at how Hawkeye helps traders understand and visualize markets in a whole new way, just click right here to watch a comprehensive training video!

Analyzing My Favorite Sector

I hope you had a fun and restful Labor Day!

Today I want to talk about something that’s near and dear to my heart… 

And if you’ve been following me for a while, it will come as no surprise. 

I’m talking about crude oil. 

Most of you know that the crude market is where I personally do the bulk of my trading… 

So today I’m giving a thorough technical analysis and chart breakdown to show you exactly how Hawkeye helps me spot trading opportunities on black gold. 

Ready to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you level up your trading with a clear 3-Step Method for executing trades? Click right here to view our full training video!

Happy Labor Day from Hawkeye Traders

Happy Labor Day!

I hope you’re enjoying some well deserved time off today. 

Since the markets are closed, I decided to do a little reflecting on the holiday and what it means to me… 

And how we as traders can find parallels between our day-to-day lives, our hobbies, and our trading.

I’m also telling you about a very special Labor Day sale event… 

So check out the video to get all the details… 

Here is the embed code for the video:

And if you’re ready to learn more about the tools I personally use to clear six figures a year through trading alone, click right here to view a full training video!

Friday Breakdown: Dissecting the Dollar

It’s Friday, and today I’m taking a look at the U.S. dollar for all you forex traders out there. 

In the video, I’m breaking down the dollar’s seasonality… 

The long-term macro view… 

As well as the short-term outlook. 

I’m also giving you a look at key dates and turning points to be on the lookout for, and of course we’re taking a look at the charts with our Hawkeye tools to see precisely where our potential opportunities may arise. 

Check out today’s vlog for all the details… 

And if you’re ready to learn more about the tools I personally use to clear six figures a year through trading alone, click right here to view a full training video!

The One Thing You Must Do Before Trading Live

Recently, we’ve started talking about the 3 keys to a winning trading plan.

Last week, we looked at the first key…

Which is to have your plan in writing.

Today, it’s time to dive into Key No. 2…

And this one is something you absolutely MUST do before ever taking a live trade.

I’m talking about backtesting and forward testing your trading plan.

Now, backtesting means using your plan on historical market data to see how it would have performed historically.

Many platforms support automated backtesting…

But if you don’t have that function available to you, you can simply go through your entry and exit rules manually using the historical data.

Forward testing, on the other hand, refers to testing your plan on the live edge of the market.

Forward testing is often referred to as paper trading… and it’s typically done in a simulated account, or sim account for short.

Sim trading is great because it allows you a chance to learn the particular platform you’re using…

While simultaneously practicing entering, managing and exiting trades according to your plan.

Not only does this build up your experience with using the platform and following your trading plan, but it also builds up your confidence as you begin to see that your plan will actually work.

Of course, if it’s not working, the sim account gives you the opportunity to tweak, rearrange and reorder your plan as necessary without risking real money as you work out the kinks.

Now, there are a few things you should keep in mind when backtesting and forward testing that will help ensure you get the most out of your testing.

The first thing is, whenever you’re backtesting, you want to select historical data that represents the current trading climate as much as possible.

That means that if the market you plan to trade is currently in a period of congestion or range-bound trading, you want to choose a period of historical data that looks roughly the same as the current period.

It’s also critical that you look at the same timeframes that you’ll be trading live when you’re backtesting historical data.

Now, the second important thing to keep in mind when backtesting is that you want to use both in-sample data and out-of-sample data.

Here’s the key to testing with in-sample and out-of-sample data…

You will only actually backtest your plan on the in-sample data.

As you’re backtesting the in-sample data, you will use the results to optimize your settings and strategy…

Then, you’ll run the out-of-sample data and analyze the outcome without influencing any of the optimization of your plan.

So, how do you determine in-sample and out-of-sample data?

It’s pretty simple, really.

Once you’ve identified a period of historical data that you want to use for your backtesting, you will divide that dataset into thirds.

Then, you simply define two-thirds of the period as your in-sample data…

And the leftover third will serve as your out-of-sample data.

For instance, if you chose a time period of 3 weeks as your backtesting data period, you could use the first two weeks as your in-sample data…

Then use the last week of the period as your out-of-sample data.

Now, what happens if you backtest with your in-sample data, optimize your results, then run the out-of-sample data and see low correlation?

(In other words, the out-of-sample data test did not perform as well as the in-sample testing that you optimized.)

Well, it often means that your system is over-optimized…

And it might not perform well in a live market.

In that instance, you’d want to go back to backtesting…

So that you can continue to iron out the details, settings and specifics of your plan.

Once you see a strong correlation between your in-sample results and out-of-sample results, you are in a good position to take your trading plan to the live market.

In a future issue, we’ll discuss more about forward testing your trading plan, as well as the third key to developing a winning trade plan…

But for now, you can learn more about Hawkeye’s proprietary 3-Step Method and how it helps you trade with more consistency by clicking here to watch a full training video!

Trading Lessons I Learned on the Archery Range

It’s Wednesday, and I hope your week is going well so far. 

Today I want to switch things up a little bit and talk about one of my favorite hobbies… 

Archery. 

See, I’ve been shooting a bow since I was a kid, and I’ve found that the ability to accurately sink an arrow into a target has a lot in common with successful trading. 

Both skills require patience… discipline… a whole lot of practice… 

As well as a plan and a consistent setup for each and every shot or trade. 

But what’s more, the same fundamentals that apply to good shooting and trading can also be applied to other aspects of your life that you want to improve. 

So check out the video to see why consistent action creates consistent results… 

And if you’re ready to learn more about how Hawkeye’s 3-Step Method for trading can help you achieve consistency in the markets, click here to watch a full training video!

Energy Market Update: Is It Time to Trade This Sector?

Sometimes, knowing when NOT to trade is more important than knowing when to trade.

And in today’s video breakdown, Anthony is analyzing the energy sector and demonstrating how Hawkeye gives traders a clear picture of the market…  

As well as a simple set of rules for getting into trades and knowing when to wait for more opportunistic conditions. 

Check out the video to get Anthony’s take on crude, gasoline, home heating oil, and natural gas… 

As well as some insights on trading mindset that can help you achieve new levels. 

You can learn even more about the Hawkeye suite of indicators and how they can help you achieve consistent profitability in your trading by clicking right here for a full training video!

Key No. 1 to a Winning Trade Plan

On Monday, we started talking about the single most important thing that every trader needs if they want to succeed…

A trading plan.

We discussed exactly what a trade plan is, as well as some of the key characteristics that define a solid trading plan.

I also told you that there are 3 keys to a winning trade plan…

And today, we’re going to look at the first key.

Key number one to a winning trading plan is to have your plan in writing!

Now, this may seem a bit arbitrary on its face…

But in a moment you’ll realize just how crucial it really is.

You see, when your plan lives only in your head, it’s too easy for it to change based on whim or emotion.

On the other hand, when your plan is fully thought out and documented in writing, it’s much more concrete.

Your written trading plan should be right beside you every time you actively trade.

That way, you can refer to it when you need to…

And it will be there to guide you no matter what situation you find yourself in.

What’s more, thinking through and physically writing out a comprehensive trade plan will give you time to really think about all the elements involved in trading and how they will impact your life.

Now, I told you before that one of the key characteristics of a good trading plan is that it’s personal.

That means not simply replicating someone else’s trade plan…

Because we all have our own unique personalities, perspectives, and goals.

As such, we need to develop a plan that is tailored to our own situation.

So… how do you ensure that your trade plan is personalized?

You start by asking yourself the following questions (and writing down the answers):

  1. How much time can I commit to trading?
  2. What skills do I currently have?
  3. What skills/knowledge do I lack?
  4. How much risk can I tolerate?
  5. How will trading affect my relationships? (Remember that relationships affect emotions, which can greatly affect your trading.)
  6. Do I have all the necessary tools for trading? (These include an up-to-date computer… a reliable internet connection… an active account with a trading platform… and any trading software or indicators that you will use.)
  7. What are my personality traits? (Am I greedy? Self-disciplined or compulsive? Patient or impatient? Overly confident or lacking in confidence? Decisive? Emotionally stable? A gambler who is willing to risk money I can’t afford to lose?)

As you can see, these questions will require some real self-reflection and honesty.

But the more honestly you answer these questions, the better positioned you’ll be to create a trading plan that you actually stick with.

Now, we also need to talk about the elements that every written trading plan should include.

First, your trade plan needs to clearly state your goals and objectives.

For example, will you trade for a living, or as a way to supplement your income on the side?

What instruments will you trade?

What timeframes will you trade? For instance, will you be a day trader, a swing trader, a position trader, or a combination of those?

How much will your initial investment be?

More importantly, can you afford to lose that entire initial investment and still provide for your family?

Now, your trading plan also should include your daily trade routine.

Remember, the more structure you have in place for yourself, the more productive your trade sessions will be, since you won’t have to waste time wondering where you should start or what you should do next.

Your daily routine should consider things like time for research…

Time for continuing education…

Being sufficiently rested so you have an alert mind…

A trading environment that’s free from distractions…

And ideal times of day that you will trade and when you will sit out of the market.

Of course, your trading plan must also address the specifics of the strategies you’ll use for the markets you’ll be trading.

That means clear entry rules to determine under what circumstances you’ll enter a trade…

Risk rules that regulate how much you’ll risk on any given trade…

And exit rules that tell you when to close a trade.

Finally, a part of your plan should be to keep detailed records of your daily trading activities.

That means journaling not just your profit and loss numbers, but the specifics of the trades…

The whys and hows of what you did.

Documenting the process will help you learn what works… and what doesn’t… so that you don’t repeat costly mistakes.

In our next installment, we’ll look at key number 2 of a winning trading plan…

But if you’d like to learn more about how Hawkeye can fit into your trade plan to help you optimize your results, then click here to watch a free training video!

The Single Most Important Element of Successful Trading

Lately, we’ve been looking at the fundamentals of the Hawkeye trading methodology and breaking down the core tools that drive the Hawkeye system.

Today, I want to continue our discussion of trading fundamentals…

And talk about perhaps the single most important element that EVERY trader needs if they want to be successful.

I’m talking about a trading plan.

Now, if you’ve been a Hawkeye trader for a while, you’ve likely seen our training on the 3 keys to a winning trade plan.

If you haven’t seen that training, don’t worry, because I’m going to be detailing the 3 keys for you in upcoming issues.

First, though, it’s important to understand precisely what we mean when we talk about a trading plan…

See, a trading plan is a written set of rules that defines how and when you will place trades.

A trading plan includes the markets that will be traded…

The timeframes you’ll use to make your trade decisions…

The indicators and settings that are applied to the charts that you trade from…

All the rules about how much you’ll risk on any one trade, a.k.a. position sizing…

And, of course, your rules for entering, managing, and exiting each trade.

Now, a trading plan also has some very specific characteristics.

See, it’s not enough to simply duplicate someone else’s trade plan, because every trader has their own unique quirks, preferences and peculiarities.

That’s why the first characteristic of a trade plan is that it’s PERSONAL.

A good trade plan is tailor-made to fit YOU, the individual trader.

But here’s the thing…

As you gain more experience and knowledge from trading over time, you’ll learn things and make discoveries about your own trading that will require you to update your trade plan.

Which means the second characteristic of a trade plan is that it’s a “living document.”

Yes, your trading plan will… and should… evolve over time.

The catch here is that you must only make updates to your trading plan AFTER the market is closed for the day…

And NEVER in the middle of an active trading session.

Now, before we dive into the 3 keys to a winning trade plan, let’s briefly talk about why having a documented plan is so crucial to successful trading.

I like to think about preparing a trade plan like a mountain climber approaches preparing for a major expedition.

I mean, think about it…

Any serious climber looking to scale a challenging mountain has several things in place before their journey ever begins.

Of course, the climber will undergo intense physical training…

They’ll have a map that they’ll study for hours on end, learning the lay of the land and examining all the possible routes to the top…

They’ll research the weather… the terrain… what kind of wildlife they may run into…

They’ll make an exhaustive list of everything they need to pack to make sure they’re equipped for any scenario…

They’ll have an idea of where along the route they’ll be able to stop and rest so they can complete the entire journey…

And they’ll have a journal or a camera they can use to document the journey and recount mistakes they made so that they don’t repeat those same mistakes later.

Well… it’s the same with trading.

See, the mountain climber who fails to carefully plan his expedition will likely encounter disaster.

And the same is true for traders venturing out into volatile markets without a trading plan.

Your trade plan keeps you on course… and helps you avoid traps and hidden dangers along the way.

Now, in the next issue we’ll start breaking down the 3 absolutely critical keys to a winning trading plan…

But in the meantime, if you’d like to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you make better, more informed trade decisions and keep you in line with your trade plan, just click here to view a free training video now!

Volume Trading Essentials For The Everyday Trader

I hope you’re having a great week so far!

Last week, we started looking at the fundamentals of volume trading with Hawkeye.

I showed you how the Hawkeye Volume, Radar, and Paintbar indicators work to give you a foundational view of the interaction between volume and price…

And how you can begin using them to make better informed decisions no matter what instrument you’re trading.

Well, today I want to dive a little bit deeper into the next layer of indicators that work synergistically with the Volume, Radar and Paintbar…

And when combined, give you everything needed to use Hawkeye’s proprietary 3-Step Method for entering and exiting trades with precision.

Now, last time I told you that the Hawkeye Starter Package includes the Hawkeye Volume, Radar, and Paintbar indicators — the three most critical, foundational tools in the Hawkeye stable.

But the Starter Package also includes two other important tools that help keep you safe from fluctuations in the market and choppy price action.

I’m talking about the Hawkeye Pivots and Hawkeye WideBar.

Take a look:

Now, you’ll recall that the larger yellow dots you see along the top of the Volume indicator at the bottom of the screen are the Hawkeye Volume Radar.

But if you look closely, you’ll see smaller yellow dots at the tops and bottoms of certain price bars.

Those are the Hawkeye Pivots.

The Pivots identify isolated highs and isolated lows in the market.

An isolated high would be a price bar with a higher high AND a higher low than both the previous and the next bar, while an isolated low is a bar with a lower low and a lower high than the previous bar and the next bar.

Now, the Pivots are a lagging indicator, meaning the software doesn’t paint the Pivot dots in real time.

However, when you see a Pivot form, you can expect to see three to five bars of price retracement follow.

Now, let’s quickly talk about the Hawkeye WideBar before we move into the Trend + Stops.

See that big, purple price bar right in the center of the chart image above?

That’s a Hawkeye WideBar.

Now, the WideBar signifies a price bar that has twice the average true range (ATR) of any of the preceding 14 price bars.

Whenever you get a price bar that has two times the ATR of the preceding 14 bars, Hawkeye paints that bar purple…

And when you see this, you can expect one of two things to happen next:

  1. Price will return to trade within the range of the purple bar for the short term
  2. Price will make a true breakout in one direction or the other

In other words, the WideBar alerts you to a coming breakout…

Or a fakeout.

Now, with those 5 indicators, you’re able to begin leveraging the predictive power of volume in your trading.

But by adding the Trend + Stops Module, you have all the necessary components to follow the Hawkeye 3-Step Method for entering and exiting trades with laser-like precision.

Let me break down the Trend + Stops Module for you.

Looking at this chart from left to right, you see a series of white dots at the base of the price candles that turn green as price is rising…

Then, as price starts moving sideways, you see those dots turn white again.

Those dots are the Hawkeye Trend tool, and they let you know when price is in a trend.

Green dots mean price is trending upward, or long…

Red dots signify a down trend, or short…

And white dots represent a neutral trend, meaning price is in congestion, consolidation, accumulation or distribution.

Now you may have heard the phrase, “The trend is your friend.”

That’s true, but I’d add one caveat:

The trend is your friend… until it’s not.

A consolidation period, or sideways, choppy movement that would be signified by white trend dots, absolutely decimates a trend trading strategy.

That’s why it’s just as critical to know when NOT to be in a trend as it is to know when to jump into one.

Now, the last piece of the puzzle is the Hawkeye Stops.

See the little crosses below the price bars and the trend dots that are connected with a green line?

That is the Stops indicator, which as the name implies, shows you where your stops should be at any point along the trend.

Now if the trend is long, you’ll see green stops below the price bars…

And if the trend is short, the stops will be colored red above the price bars.

These stops are also a very good indication of support and resistance, and you’ll often see price treat those levels as such.

Now, as I mentioned, these tools combined — the Hawkeye Volume and Trend + Stops indicators — give us the foundation for following the 3-Step Method…

Which gives us a standard, step-by-step approach for making definitive decisions on entering and exiting trades.

That means no more guesswork…

And no more emotional decisions.

Instead, you simply follow the simple rules to manage your trades.

Now, we’ve put together a special training video that shows you how you can get started trading using these tools today… along with a very special offer on the Hawkeye Volume and Trend + Stops package.

You can view it for free right now by clicking here!

Simple Risk Management Strategies To Prevent Devastating Losses

It’s been another wild week in the markets, with the S&P coming within a hair of an all-time closing high on Tuesday and Wednesday.

What’s more, Tesla stock moved even higher after the automaker announced a five-for-one stock split to take effect at the end of the month.

Now, if you recall just about a week ago we talked about Apple’s four-for-one stock split and what that meant for investors…

But today I want to continue our conversation from Monday about trading fundamentals.

In that issue, I walked you through the very basics of volume trading with Hawkeye, including a look at our primary set of indicators.

This time, though, I want to talk about something that many new traders overlook…

Most often to their own detriment.

I’m talking about risk management.

Now, if you follow trading news, you know that 2020 has seen the largest influx of retail traders in history.

The trouble is that oftentimes, new traders are attracted to the markets because they see it as a quick way to make some easy money…

And they don’t give enough consideration to the RISK that is inherent in trading.

Modern broker platforms like the popular Robinhood app don’t make it any easier, with their flashy marketing and gamified approach to trading.

But here’s a truth that I have said before and that I will continue to stand behind:

If you don’t have a documented trade plan that dictates every single trade you make — INCLUDING profit target and stop loss levels — then you are not trading…

You are simply GAMBLING.

Now, one of the first steps in developing your trade plan is determining your risk level.

Your risk level, as you may have guessed, is the amount of capital you are willing to lose on any given trade…

And it’s enforced by what we call a stop loss.

Stop losses are one of the most fundamental tools when it comes to risk management.

A stop loss is a predetermined price at which you will sell the instrument you’re trading and take a loss.

For instance, say you want to go long on a stock that’s currently trading at $20.

You manage to get in at $19.95…

So you set your stop loss at $19.90.

That means that if the stock price dips down to $19.90 or below, the stop loss order will kick in and your broker will sell the stock for you.

As you can see, this prevents you from losing too much on any one trade if it turns and goes against you.

Now, that’s all well and good…

But how do you determine where you should set your stop loss on any given trade?

Well, many traders use the one percent rule.

This rule states that you should never put more than one percent of your account balance at risk on any single trade.

So, if you’re starting out with a $5,000 account, the one-percent rule means that you would only risk $50 on any trade.

Now, depending on what instrument you’re trying to trade, a $50 risk may be somewhat limiting…

But, as your account value grows, you can start looking at position sizing, which essentially means increasing the number of contracts per trade while keeping your risk level the same.

We’ll talk more about position sizing… as well as take profit levels, which is the other side of stop losses, in a future issue…

But for now, if you want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you get started with trading using a tried-and-true, methodical method that ensures you’re TRADING and not GAMBLING…

Then click right here to view a free training video that will walk you through the fundamentals of the Hawkeye system!.

Welcome to Summertime Trading

Welcome to summertime trading. In today’s market update, I talk about summertime trading characteristics, and give my unique perspective on what to expect going into vacation season.

From the charts

Most of the major markets are currently in consolidation. This is where price trades sideways for a certain period of time, and the price action is characterized by choppy, range-bound prices. Volume is usually lower, and the volatility flat.

The S&P, Dow, and Russell markets all show neutral trend dots, and the Nasdaq, while still in an uptrend, is nevertheless in congestion. The Bond markets are showing signs of accumulation as funds are rotating more out of stocks. This can be seen by a rising US dollar index as well.

Gold is the only market that shows building energy (Fatboy chart), but even the charts show a hesitation of precious metals as it attempts to break into new highs. Last but not least is Oil, which has gone flat in a tight range between $42 and $37. While the daily trend for $CL is bullish, the weekly trend is congested bearish, and the monthly trend is bearish.

The Hawkeye Perspective

Summertime trading is characterized by chaotic prices, and choppy, range-bound trading. Many traders have left their desks and gone on vacation, leaving the markets to the autobots. So trade with more caution than usual, pulling in your profit points and stops to account for the choppiness. Look for other strategies to trade these markets, and trend/momentum based strategies typically get hammered in choppy markets. Stay abreast of the market by getting a copy of your own Hawkeye indicators of tools. Learn what volume and price are telling you by learning to trade the Hawkeye way.

Soybeans are Strong.

In today’s update, I follow-up on a previous video where I showed a potential bullish build in soybeans, corn, and copper. As one Hawkeye client put it, “Randy, it looks like your Soybeans are all systems go”. Yes, soybeans are strong, and I show you my analysis in today’s video.

From the charts

The daily soybean (@S) chart shows a nice “double-dot” Hawkeye Roadkill signal, confirming alignment of the longer term and shorter term charts. This alignment usually provides a high probability entry point. For soybeans, that was right around $865. Volume and momentum are supporting this bullish break, so it looks good for a move up to the $898 area, if we can get a confirmed close above $877.5.

Corn (@C) continues to show bullishness as well, with a confirmed “double-dot” entry around $329. This continues to build strength and is currently in consolidation. But a break above $335 will confirm the strength, with an initial upside target around the $344 area.

Finally don’t forget about Copper (@HG), which is a good indicator of our economy. It continues a very nice bullish trend, with nice volume and momentum support. Keep an eye on the Agricultural ETF DBA. It is in a longterm downtrend, but is just showing signs of bottoming, and potential reversal (volume).

The Hawkeye Perspective

Knowing how to read charts is one thing… but knowing how to profit from them is another. Hawkeye provides a suite of tools that show you definitive entry and exit points in any market and any timeframe. Follow this bullish build in commodities with your own copy of Hawkeye by clicking the link below. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Analysis

July – CLN20 Contract

Crude Corner Outlook:

The mid $35.00 – $36.00 price area will likely contain selling pressure into July trading activity. Above which, the $44.00 price area is likely and able to be obtained within several weeks.

Near-Term Bullish Scenario:

The $38.00 price area can contain initial strength, beyond which the mid $40.00 price area is likely and able to contain session strength. Closing above the $40.00 price area indicates the $44.00 price area in several days which sets the stage for the $49.00 price area to follow.

Near-Term Bearish Scenario:

Breaking below the mid $35.00 price area indicates a test of the mid $34.00 price area intraday. Closing below the mid $35.00 price area indicates a June high has already been placed. The mid $31.00 price area then expected by the end of the week and the mid $23.00 price area within several weeks.

Check out our Crude Corner charts for our long-term market analysis outlook AND our Crude Corner weekly / daily breakout charts with KEY Active Support & Resistance price areas.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

A Lot of People Got Hit by This Correction

A lot of people got hit by this correction in the markets last week. In today’s update, I show from a Hawkeye perspective how to see and know when the markets are changing.

A sore subject

I know it’s a sore subject, but it always good to go back over and learn from the charts. Since I love the daily charts, it is my goto for reading the markets. However, the daily S&P e-mini (ES) didn’t show me any clear indication of a market correction. I had to dig down into the hourly chart to really see what was going on.

From the charts

From the hourly chart, I could see a real change in the character of the volume. Beginning Jun 2nd, and going until the correction started, selling volume spikes were predominant over buying spikes. When price finally failed to produce new highs on Jun 10, that was the sign of potential correction.

Then the majority of the correction occurred overnight, with extremely low volume. This is significant, in that, markets USUALLY don’t go down on low volume. This is not normal price action. We didn’t see it on the daily, but it was clear to see on the hourly.

The Hawkeye Perspective

The markets are fickle… they do what they want without the common courtesy of letting us know ahead of time. However, with the right tools (i.e. volume) you can find and prepare for these market changes, and even profit from them. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Analysis

July – CLN20 Contract

For Today:

The $36.00 price area will likely contain selling pressure. The mid $37.00 price area is likely and able to contain buying throughout the balance of June.

Near-Term Bullish Scenario:

Breaking above the mid $37.00 price area allows for upward momentum towards the mid $39.00 price area. A daily settlement above the mid $37.00 price area signifies near-term target at the mid $42.00 price area within a week or so. Long-term upside target at the mid $55.00 price area is then likely over several weeks.

Near-Term Bearish Scenario:

Breaking below the $36.00 price area allows for a retest of the $35.00 price area. Closing below the mid $35.00 price area would allow for a retest of the mid $33.00 price area which will likely contain near term selling.

Check out today’s pre-market multiple timeframe charts for areas of confluence AND this week’s Crude Corner breakout chart displaying key support & resistance areas.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Commodities are Showing Signs of Reversal

The commodities are showing signs of reversal. In today’s update, I show two that I particularly like: Soybeans and Corn. Both are giving me indications that they are breaking out of consolidation with volume strength.

From the charts

The daily Soybean futures contract @S (SN20) has broken it’s consolidation range, giving us a confirmed trend, volume, and momentum bullish indication. Buying pressure is strong as shown by the rising Hawkeye Volume green bars. In addition, this breakout is supported by longerterm volume on our 2nd timeframe. All we need is for this week to close out with a weekly volume bar green, and we have a full buy signal.

You can look at the Corn futures contract @C (CN20) the same way. Hawkeye shows a green trend, volume and momentum, along with green buying on the longerterm volume. All we need is a weekly green volume bar for final buy confirmation.

The Hawkeye Perspective

All of these signals are clearly shown on our charts by the Hawkeye indicators. But the BEST part of this was that we saw it coming on April 21st… over a month ago! Volume leads price, and understanding how to trade with volume and price is the EDGE. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

To call this ride crude oil has been on “wild” is clearly an understatement. From prices trading at nearly NEGATIVE $40.00 a barrel when approaching expiration of the May contract, to the Saudi & Russian price war, pared with the global economic shutdowns generating over supply and completely depleting demand – to a historic comeback of prices rallying nearly 90% during the calendar month of May. This year thus far has undoubtedly been the wildest ride of my trading career!

The craziest part of all of this is the insane opportunities the market continues to present. To think looking back that I’ve made less money in calmer seas than these rough unpredictable times makes this all that more exciting. Adversity often presents opportunity, and that’s exactly what is happening throughout all of this craziness.

I suspect the crude oil market is most likely coming due for a short-term correction. A base of support is much needed to be formed which the market is currently lacking. The July contract has been rallying on average approximately $4.00 per week to the upside for the past 4 straight weeks in a row.

I believe the market will have a greater chance of following through with it’s current rally trajectory if along the way there are bottoms placed and solidified. The $36.00 – the mid $37.00 price area will likely determine if this rally has a pullback or if it continues on its current upward path.

If buying strength weakens we could see a healthy correction to as deep as the $26.00 price area. This formation of a secondary, higher bottom would confirm buyer’s interest in driving this current rally onward and upward.

If the $31.00 price area is broken through, the $26.00 price area will most likely be able to contain remaining selling. The next 2 bullish target’s I’m looking at are at the mid $37.00 price area and further to the upside between the $39.00 – $40.00 price area.

There is a confluence of intraday upside resistance / supply that would need to be successfully broken through on multiple timeframe Hawkeye Zones at $37.33 – this break would be key to see the next suspected upside target at the $39.00 price area.

Check out this week’s Crude Corner Passive Breakout Trade Idea(s) offering both bullish and bearish scenarios. This strategy suggests 3 contracts for each trade. 1 Stop with 3 Targets. If there are open position(s) at 1400 EST on Friday or on the last day of the trading week, I would recommend closing them out before the weekend.

PLEASE NOTE: I would strongly recommend the use of confirmation tools and the implementation of your unique trade management plan before entering any trade.

“Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.” ~ Albert Einstein

Wishing you a blessed and profitable week!

Anthony
Crude Corner

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil futures moved lower on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise increase in United States crude stocks, which offset hopes for a demand recovery as coronavirus lockdowns ease.

For the week ending May 22 United States stockpiles rose by 7.9 million barrels, the United States Energy Information Administration said. Analysts had been expecting a draw of 1.3 million barrels.

Data from industry group API showed United States crude stocks rose 8.7 million barrels in the week to May 22, against analyst expectations for a 1.9 million-barrel draw.

Also weighing on prices was uncertainty about Russia’s commitment to continuing deep output cuts ahead of a June 9 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a grouping dubbed OPEC+.

Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC oil producers are considering extending record high output cuts until the end of 2020 but have yet to win support from Russia, according to OPEC+ and Russian sources.

Reportedly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed during a telephone call on further “close coordination” on output restrictions on Wednesday.

With United States WTI holding above $30 a barrel, OPEC+ will be watching to see whether United States shale oil producers, who have breakeven prices in the high $20 to low $30 range, step up production.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the $39.00 price area remains a several week target. If achieved, then the mid $55.00 price area would likely be in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The mid $26.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the $39.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the $39.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several weeks.

Bearish Outlook:

A daily settlement below the mid $26.00 price area would likely yield a $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending to the upside since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom the week-ending May 1.

The market has a lot more work to do before the trend changes to bullish on the weekly chart. A trade through the last main top at $54.86 will change the main trend to bullish. A move through $17.27 will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 remains it’s support. This price is actually controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 which services as the first upside bullish target.

The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target. This zone likely controls the longer-term direction of the market.

Technical Forecast

Given the price action over the last three weeks, the direction of the July WTI crude oil futures contract the week-ending May 29 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at $33.27.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $27.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at $28.86. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $28.86, however, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with near-term targets the minor top at $35.18 and the 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $33.27 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger the start of a steep break with the first target $27.46, followed by another uptrending Gann angle at $25.27.

Technical Summary

Counter-trend upside momentum has been driving up July WTI crude oil since the week-ending May 1 at a pace of $4.00 per week. If this upside momentum is to continue the week-ending May 29 then the market is going to have to hold above $33.27. A failure to hold $33.27 will indicate that momentum is weakening. This could trigger a near-term correction towards $25.27.

May Crude Corner Weekly Passive Breakout Trade Recap

5 Trades Utilizing ONLY 3 Contracts Per Trade
Paid $17,340.00 of PASSIVE PROFIT in May

Crude Corner CLOSED Swing Trade … $55,800.00 in 11 DAYS!!!

Sunday evening May 10, 2020 @ 1800 EST we entered a swing trade position.

Position Size: 10 Contracts

Trade Directions: LONG

Contract: CLN20

Entry Price: $26.04

Target Price: $36.04

Stopped Out @ $31.62

Trade Duration: 11 Days

This HAWKEYE powered trading strategy is the flagship of our service, we take only the highest probability of successful passive trades for massive income. These trades occur on average approximately 1 once a month, but when they do, they pay BIG!!!

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Getting Back to Work!

In today’s market update, I show how excited the markets are about all of us getting back to work. The bullish moves are continuing across the board as all the markets, even the poor Russell 2000 are breaking out to the long side. But there is a caution to warn you about, and I’ll show you in today video.

From the charts

The daily chart is my favorite chart for looking at trends. The S&P e-mini (ES) is coming right up to the 3039.50 price we identified last week, falling just short at 3035 overnight, on good bullish volume. The Dow e-mini (YM) also broke out with bullishness, headed for 25842 on the upside. The Russell e-mini (RTY) also broke out long and is tagging it’s overhead resistance target of 1440, again pointed out last week. All of these are with good buying pressure.

However, the biggest bull of them all is starting to show signs of a potential reversal/correction… and that’s the Nasdaq e-mini (NQ). Yesterday closed with a big old volume reversal signal just as it entered overhead resistance (supply zone). As the other market reached for the stars, NQ tried and failed, with a huge amount of selling pressure. If this continues, the downside potential of NQ is around 9144, and if so, the rest of the market might be following.

The Hawkeye Perspective

Understanding and using supply and demand theory with price action is important, if you want to know where price is going. Using volume to know where price is going is the key. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

In the last two months, oil has hit two very different milestones.

In April, West Texas Intermediate, the United States oil benchmark, plunged below zero and into negative territory for the first time ever on record.

Meanwhile, May is shaping up to be WTI’s best month ever, going back to the contract’s inception in 1983.

This has been a never before seen, astonishing turnaround.

Improvements on both the demand and supply side of the equation have pushed prices higher.

Data shows that people in the United States and China are starting to hit the road again, while producers around the globe have cut output at record rates in an effort to prop up prices.

The latest figures from EIA show that United States production has dropped 1.6M BPD below the March high of 13.1M BPD.

Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have scaled back operations.

The contract has jumped more than 70% in May and posted four straight weeks of gains, but some traders warn that the near-term outlook for oil remains uncertain, and that prices could head back into the $20’s after settling around $33 last Friday.

Additionally, part of WTI’s blistering rally this month is due to the historic low from which it bounced.

Prices are still about 50% below January’s high of $65.65, significantly cutting into profits for energy companies, which are often saddled with debt.

A number of United States energy companies have already filed for bankruptcy protection, including Whiting Petroleum, which was once a large player in the Bakken region.

If prices stay at depressed levels, there could be more financial casualties.

Still, the market has shown signs of rebalancing itself, and analysts say that if demand continues to improve and producers keep wells shut-in, the worst of what we’ve seen in recent months could be over for oil.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the mid $39.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area would then be in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

he mid $27.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the mid $39.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the mid $39.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several more weeks, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A daily settlement below the mid $27.00 price area would likely yield a $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

he main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending to the upside since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom the week-ending May 1.

The market has a lot more work to do before the trend changes to bullish on the weekly chart. A trade through the last main top at $54.86 will change the main trend to bullish. A move through $17.27 will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 remains it’s support. This price is actually controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 which services as the first upside bullish target.

The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target. This zone likely controls the longer-term direction of the market.

Technical Forecast

Given the price action over the last three weeks, the direction of the July WTI crude oil futures contract the week-ending May 29 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at $33.27.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $33.27 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into $36.07. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $40.11 to $40.86.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $33.27 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger the start of a steep break with the first target $27.46, followed by another uptrending Gann angle at $25.27.

Technical Summary

Counter-trend upside momentum has been driving up July WTI crude oil since the week-ending May 1 at a pace of $4.00 per week. If this upside momentum is to continue the week-ending May 29 then the market is going to have to hold above $33.27. A failure to hold $33.27 will indicate that momentum is weakening. This could trigger a near-term correction towards $25.27.

May Crude Corner Weekly Passive Breakout Trade Recap

$18,140 of PASSIVE PROFIT over the past 3 WEEKS:

5/4/20 – 5/8/20 Weekly Trade Strategy Paid $6,460:

5/11/20 – 5/15/20 Weekly Trade Strategy Paid $6,080:

5/18/20 – 5/22/20 Weekly Trade Strategy Paid $5,600:

Crude Corner CLOSED Swing Trade … $55,800.00 in 11 DAYS!!!

On Sunday evening May 10, 2020 @ 1800 EST we entered a swing trade position.

Position Size: 10 Contracts

Trade Directions: LONG

Contract: CLN20

Entry Price: $26.04

Target Price: $36.04

Stopped Out @ $31.62

Trade Duration: 11 Days

This HAWKEYE powered trading strategy is our flagship, we take only the highest probability of successful passive trades for massive income.

These trades occur on average less than 20 times annually, but when they do, they pay us very well.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Crude Corner Swing Trade Position Update

On Sunday evening May 10, 2020 at 1800 EST, we entered a swing trade position.

Position Size: 10 Contracts

Trade Directions: Long

Contract: CLN20

Purchase Price: $26.04

Position Stopped Out at $31.57

Total trade profit: $55,800 inside of two weeks!

This particular trading strategy is the flagship of this system. We recommend only the highest probability of successful passive trades for massive income. These trades occur on average less than twice a month, but when they pay… they pay BIG!

Crude Corner Weekly Trade Recap … 5/18 – 5/22

Our bullish breakout confirmed a long entry at $30.75. We entered the trade with 3 targets: one contract to be executed at each target.

Once the first target contract was filled, we moved our stop to break even as there was no reason to risk our profit on the table for the remainder of the week.

Targets 2 and 3 later in the week were successfully filled.

So the total take for last week executing this strategy paid us $5,600.

Not too shabby for just having to set up the trade, move your stop to break even, step aside and let it ride!

Have you taken advantage of any of these crude oil moves?

If so, hit leave a comment and tell us what trade you took and how you did!

Oil prices rose to the highest level since March on Thursday, supported by lower United States crude inventories, OPEC-led supply cuts and recovering demand as governments ease restrictions imposed on people’s movements due to the coronavirus crisis.

In the latest sign the supply glut is easing, United States crude inventories fell approximately million barrels last week. Meanwhile, analysts had been expecting an increase.

The rally in the crude futures is beginning to approach levels in which United States shale production declines will begin to slow and possibly reverse as low cost producers attempt to generate revenue.

At the same time, there is evidence of recovering in fuel consumption.

Top United States airlines and Air Canada on Tuesday reported slower ticket cancellations and an improvement in bookings on some routes, though executives said overall demand remained relatively weak.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut supply by a record 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1.

So far in May, OPEC+ has cut oil exports by about 6 million BPD, according to companies that track the flows, suggesting a strong start in complying with the deal. OPEC says the market has responded well.

Unemployment Remains a Concern

With now nearly 39 million American workers on unemployment and countless Americans who are either ineligible to collect or are still waiting for their unemployment to be processed – growing recession / depression concerns linger.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the mid $39.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $28.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the mid $39.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the mid $39.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several more weeks, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the $28.00 price area would most likely yield a $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom from the week-ending May 1.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the nearest swing top at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in near-term momentum. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 is the primary upside target. The weekly gap at $37.64 to $41.88 is another potential resistance zone. The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market for the week-ending May 22 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $27.46.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $27.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at $28.86. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $28.86, however, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with near-term targets the minor top at $35.18 and the 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $27.46 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a downtrending Gann angle at $24.95. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the first target a minor 50% level at $23.14, followed by the main bottom at $17.27.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Gold Setup Trade Opportunity Using Volume

In today’s update, I look at the Gold market, specifically the GC gold June futures instrument. I see a gold setup trade opportunity using volume that is really exciting! Check it out:

When you use volume, and understand price action, you have a better feel for where price will be and where it is heading. That’s what I saw today with gold.

From the charts

From the 60min chart, I see GC coming up into a supply zone around 1740, where it has been rejected several times before with large selling pressure. This same zone was hit today, rejected, and is now setting up for a great trade opportunity.

From the 3min chart (my personal favorite), I see a bullish run up to the 1740 area, right where volume signaled this range as a potential reversal area. This was confirmed with the 6min and 12min charts. So taking a low risk short entry in this area, with stops just outside the 1742 peak would provide a high reward opportunity of 5:1 or even 10:1.

The Hawkeye Perspective

When you trade with volume and price, you can better identify these types of low risk, high probability trade setups. You know ahead of time the potential for the setup, and you are prepared to take the trade know that probabilities are on your side. So learn this and other strategies when you become a member of team Hawkeye. Get your very own copy of our amazing tools using the links provided below, and Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Crude Corner Weekly Trade Recap: 5/11 – 5/15

Our bullish breakout confirmed a long entry at $27.15. We entered the trade with 3 targets — one contract to be executed at each target. Our first target was acquired at $28.35, locking in $1,200.

Once that target contract was filled, we moved our stop to break even as there was no reason to risk our profit on the table for the remainder of the week. Targets 2 and 3 were never successfully filled.

This being a passive, weekly trade strategy we closed out our 2 remaining contracts at the closing price of the 1400 EST candle on Friday afternoon at $29.59 paying us a generous $4,880.

That puts the total take for last week at just over $6,000 using this strategy!

Not too shabby for just having to set up the trade, move your stop to break even and close out the open contracts Friday afternoon.

The First Signs Of Real Oil Demand Recovery Are Here

United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are breaking out to the upside of a seven-session trading range, solidifying its third consecutive weekly higher close. The catalyst behind last week’s strength is a report that showed China’s daily crude oil throughput rebounded in April from a 15-month low in March as refiners cranked up operations to meet renewed fuel demand after lockdowns imposed to prevent the spread of the coronavirus outbreak were eased. Friday’s move was impressive, but upside momentum had been building most of the week with the market underpinned by a friendly government inventories report, the announcement of government crude oil purchases for its strategic reserve and a dampening of concerns over rising supply by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

China’s Daily Crude Oil Throughput Rebounds

China processed a total of 53.85 million tonnes of crude oil last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Friday, equivalent to about 13.1 million barrels per day (BPD). That was some 11% higher than 11.78 million BPD in March. The agency said on Friday it had adjusted the database of industrial enterprises it uses to help compile a range of production numbers. On that basis, April’s crude oil throughput was 0.8% above the year-ago level, it said; a Reuters calculation using NBS data from last year put the rise at 3.4%. Additionally, state-backed refiners have pushed up crude oil processing rates to around 79% in May, according to estimates from consultancy Longzhong Information Group, close to January’s 82% level before extensive movement restrictions were imposed to prevent the coronavirus spreading.

US to Buy Up to 1 Million Barrels of Oil for Emergency Reserve

The U.S. Energy Department said on Wednesday it will buy up to 1 million barrels of sweet crude for the government’s emergency petroleum reserve as part an effort to help producers struggling as the coronavirus strangles oil demand. The purchase of up to 1 million barrels “will serve as a test of the current conditions of physical crude oil available to the SPR as opposed to the financial market trading WTI NYMEX futures contracts,” the department said in a release. The department will purchase the oil from small to midsize domestic producers, it said.

Upbeat Supply/Demand Estimates

Oil prices are also being underpinned after a drop in U.S. crude stocks and an IEA forecast for lower global stockpiles in the second half. On Wednesday, the U.S. government reported that crude inventories fell for the first time in 15 weeks. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday again forecast a record drop in demand in 2020 though it trimmed its estimate of the fall citing easing lockdown measures.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the mid $40.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The mid $28.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the mid $40.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the mid $40.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several months, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the mid $28.00 price area would likely yield a mid $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom from the week-ending May 1.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the nearest swing top at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in near-term momentum. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 is the primary upside target. The weekly gap at $37.64 to $41.88 is another potential resistance zone. The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market for the week-ending May 22 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $27.46.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $27.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at $28.86. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $28.86, however, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with near-term targets the minor top at $35.18 and the 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $27.46 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a downtrending Gann angle at $24.95. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the first target a minor 50% level at $23.14, followed by the main bottom at $17.27.

Crude Corner Swing Trade Position

We acquired a LONG position at the open of the globex session on 5/10/20 @ 1800 EST. We purchased (10) CLN20 July WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures Contracts @ $26.04. Our position is currently +/- $6.00 in the profit heading strong towards our $36.04 profit target. Our stop is already in the money and we are looking forward to closing out another passive trading for massive income crude oil trade for 2020!!!

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

A Potential Breakout is Forming

In today’s market update, I show how the S&P 500 emini futures contract is showing us that a potential breakout is forming. From the Daily chart, we saw bullishness forming last week (May 14th) from a reversal bar, and we expected higher prices this week. However, we didn’t expect it to happen in 2 days!

From the charts

The daily ES chart (up 3.7%) will confirm a break from consolidation if we can close today, May 18th, above 2947. This bullish breakout is inline with the bullish volume reversal signal we identified on May 14th. This also agrees with the ES weekly chart, where we saw a bullish reversal signal identified on Mar 27th, right at the low of the correction.

The S&P isn’t the only instrument looking to breakout today. The Nasdaq (NQ) is confirming a return to a bull trend with today’s 2.7% rise. Today’s breakout will put NQ a stone’s throw away from pre-corona virus price levels… what a beast!

But today’s real monster is the Russell 2000 Index future, RTY. Today, it’s up 6.7% and also has the potential for a bullish breakout from consolidation. All of these instruments, ES, NQ, YM, and RTY signals this bullish intent last week on May 14, and now today are making good their intentions. If you own a copy of Hawkeye, you can see this for yourself. However, if you don’t, you need to get your own copy so you too can see the market’s intent, and be ready to profit from these breakouts.

The Hawkeye Perspective

When we see confirmed volume reversal signals, we are trained to know what to do. We know how to respond and see the markets from a different perspective… the Hawkeye Volume perspective. Don’t let another day go by without getting on board. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil prices have rebounded from their recent lows and hopefully the worst is now over. The oil market appears like it may have already turned the corner. Perhaps we are in the inflection right now as we speak.

Prices recovered faster than many were forecasting due to lower-than-expected supply coupled with better-than-expected demand.

Data from the United States Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that the United States production is now 1.5 million barrels per day below its March all-time high level of 13.1 million BPD.

Beginning May 1, OPEC and its oil-producing allies took 9.7 million BPD offline, and on this past Monday Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, said it would scale back production further in an effort to boost prices. The EIA’s data also showed that gasoline demand is beginning to recover as states start to ease shelter-in-place restrictions.

In April, May’s expiring West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract plunged below zero and into negative territory for the first time on record, but prices have since recovered and on Thursday the contract for June delivery traded around $26. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $30.

By the end of 2021, WTI could be trading as high as $60, and Brent as high as $65, but there is some caution warranted. In order for the market to rebalance there needs to be a continued drawdown in inventories, and the production that has already come offline needs to stay offline for at least a sustainable period of time.

As we emerged from lockdown we got an immediate pop exhibited in this week’s trading.

Despite WTI’s rebound, prices are still about 60% below the January high level of the mid $65.00 price area, which has pressured producers as companies struggle to break even. Once demand catches up and producers look to adding supply again, access to capital markets will likely be limited.

Most investors have had enough of the energy sector. They already had enough going into this, and if they hadn’t had enough before they’re unlikely to be interested this time around. What that tells you, when they need to grow production they’re going to have to grow it out of cash flow, which means we’re going to see higher prices in the pipeline.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the $29.00 price area remains a near term target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $29.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the mid $12.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the $29.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. A daily settlement above the $41.00 price area would then be expected within several weeks and then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several months, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the mid $12.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JUNE – CLM20 )

The main trend is bearish according to the weekly swing chart, but the closing price reversal bottom from the week ending May 1 and its subsequent confirmation, helped shift momentum to the upside.

The actual main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main bottom at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, however, there is room to the upside for the market to complete a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the bearish trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in momentum to bullish. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $27.46 is providing resistance. This price level is also controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $36.07 is the next potential upside target. The main range at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target.

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market the week-ending May 15 is likely to be determined by a downtrending Gann angle at $26.95.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $26.95 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with targets including a 50% level at $27.46, followed by another downtrending Gann angle at $30.86. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target a 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $26.95 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a minor pivot at $22.93, followed by the reversal bottom at $17.27.

Technical Outlook

In order to generate the momentum needed to drive this market away from the late April bottom, the buying is going to have to be strong enough to overcome the pair of downtrending Gann angles at $26.95 and $30.86.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

The markets have been rallying for two weeks as investors have keyed in on signs of a slowdown in production and the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions across the globe. Back-to-back smaller than expected crude oil inventory builds have been supportive, but the rise in distillate stockpiles offset that news.

Positive geopolitical developments could be the bullish wildcard next week. On Friday, the markets garnered a little support after United States and Chinese officials discussed a trade deal agreed before the coronavirus outbreak, with both sides agreeing to implement the agreement.

We’re seeing a lot of short-covering, but traders have been reluctant to go long given the bearish fundamentals. This may change if prices pullback into a value area. Furthermore, traders are not going to gain confidence in playing the long side until they start to see that the attempts to reopen the economy are proving to be successful.

Despite the recent strength, traders should continue to look for heightened volatility and the possibility of a wicked two-sided trade as some momentum traders get bullish on the easing of restrictions and some turn bearish again as inventories continue to build.

The assumptions on the supply side that are driving prices higher right now are certainly supported by data. There has already been a massive decline in the rig count, taking the number of active rigs in America to new lows. That has a big impact on where we will be in the future, but unless there is enough demand to eat into the existing glut, that won’t make much difference to the short-term storage issue.

On the demand side, things aren’t as clear-cut. I hope and pray that things go smoothly as some states begin to reopen, but there is a chance that it is just too soon. If so and coronavirus cases spike, that anticipation of big increases in demand disappears and oil will likely collapse again. Even if the worst-case scenario doesn’t unfold though, reopening is a gradual process and it is hard to imagine that gasoline demand will be robust enough initially to allow for a further jump in crude over the next several weeks. Retail gasoline sales while better than they were, remain weak.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The $13.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the mid $29.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The mid $29.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the $13.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the mid $29.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $41.00 price area would be expected within several weeks and the mid $55.00 price area then attainable within several months, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the $13.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend is bearish according to the weekly swing chart, but the closing price reversal bottom from the week ending May 1 and its subsequent confirmation, helped shift momentum to the upside.

The actual main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main bottom at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, however, there is room to the upside for the market to complete a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the bearish trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in momentum to bullish. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $27.46 is providing resistance. This price level is also controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. Its 50% level at $36.07 is the next potential upside target. The main range at $40.11 to $45.50 is the major upside target.

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market the week-ending May 15 is likely to be determined by a downtrending Gann angle at $26.95.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $26.95 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with targets including a 50% level at $27.46, followed by another downtrending Gann angle at $30.86. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target a 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $26.95 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a minor pivot at $22.93, followed by the reversal bottom at $17.27.

Technical Outlook

In order to generate the momentum needed to drive this market away from the late April bottom, the buying is going to have to be strong enough to overcome the pair of downtrending Gann angles at $26.95 and $30.86.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

How I transitioned to trading full time… and how you can, too

Recently, we’ve welcomed several new members into the Hawkeye Traders community.

I’m thrilled each day to see the growth and engagement in our Inner Circle, where traders of all styles and experience levels come together to talk shop and share strategies.

Now, anyone who knows me knows I’m not one to talk about myself too much.

But because we’ve had so many new members come aboard over the past several weeks, today I thought I’d do something a little different…

And tell you a little bit about my backstory and trading journey.

You see, I wasn’t always a professional trader.

In fact, my first career was as a research engineer.

For 14 years I worked with the U.S. Air Force, putting my dual Electrical/Electronic Engineering degree to use on many exciting projects.

(I suppose you could say it was “rocket science”… =))

I ended up going back to school to earn my master’s degree in Electro-Optic Engineering…

And as part of my master’s thesis, I developed a recurrent neural network that we used to solve many of the problems the USAF was facing at the time.

But what I didn’t know then was that same neural network would later help me understand… and even predict… the movement of the stock market.

Anyway, I’d gotten my first taste of trading in the late ‘80s when I dabbled in stocks…

But it wasn’t until the ‘90s when I was working full-time as an engineer that I really began immersing myself in the markets.

I spent every night and weekend studying trade positions in stocks, options and commodities…

And after a while, I got to be pretty decent at it… or so I thought.

Now, if you were around and trading in the mid to late ‘90s, you probably did pretty well.

Most of us did.

… That is, until the crash of 2000 came along and wiped out half of my account in the blink of an eye.

I quickly realized that I hadn’t been properly prepared for such an event…

So I began learning different ways to diversify my trading.

That’s when I entered the world of forex for the first time.

Now, here’s where my story really begins to mirror that of so many other traders…

You see, I spent a solid 2 to 3 years trying to figure out forex trading on my own…

And ended up blowing through 2 separate trade accounts in the process.

At that point, I decided I should follow a “guru” to learn the ins and outs of the market…

But after putting my faith in a few different so-called experts who got me no further than I’d been on my own, I went back to what I knew best:

Trading stocks and options and holding those positions for longer time frames.

Now, at this point I was still working full-time as an engineer.

After my work with the Air Force, I continued to do research and engineering for various government defense contractors…

But that itch to really master trading just never went away.

I kept my head down, kept working hard and trading as I had been…

And in 2005, I stumbled across the Hawkeye Traders website.

After analyzing the tools and educational resources on the site, I decided to give it a shot…

And I actually ended up attending a Hawkeye live seminar.

Well, needless to say I was impressed with what I saw.

For some reason, the Hawkeye system just clicked with me.

I bought the entire suite of indicators right then and there…

And spent the next few years developing my trade plan and learning to make consistent profits using the Hawkeye tools.

As my confidence grew, I decided to branch out and try my hand at the index futures market…

And from there, I began experimenting with all different markets and timeframes.

What I found was that by using the Hawkeye tools and the strategies I’d developed around them, I could be consistently profitable trading any instrument, in any timeframe.

It was at that point that I was able to quit my six-figure engineering career to take up trading full time.

Now, eventually, Nigel Hawkes — founder of Hawkeye Traders — noticed my success and asked if I’d like to come aboard.

Clearly, I said yes… and, well the rest is history.

Now, I’m not telling you all this to set myself up as some kind of “guru.”

I don’t run a stock selection service, and I don’t get paid to tell you where… or when… or how to trade.

No, I’m telling you my story for two reasons…

One, to show you that I wasn’t always the professional trader I am today.

Like so many other successful traders, I had to stumble my way to where I am now…

And I experienced plenty of failures and setbacks along the way.

But the second… and most important… reason I’m telling you this story is this:

So that you can see that it’s possible to become YOUR OWN trading guru.

That’s what’s so beautiful about the Hawkeye system.

With Hawkeye, you don’t need to rely on someone else to tell you what to trade… or when to trade… or how to trade.

Rather, Hawkeye enables you to become the best possible trader YOU can be, no matter what instrument, timeframe, style or strategy you prefer to use.

Of course, I can and will help you learn how to use the Hawkeye tools to their maximum potential…

But at the end of the day, it’s YOU who will put those tools to work…

And with time and persistence, you can become the master of YOUR trading.

That’s my goal for every single Hawkeye Trader.

Now if you’re not yet a member and would like to get a look at the Hawkeye tools in action…

Then click right here to attend a no-cost course and see exactly what they can do for your trading.

To your success,

Randy Lindsey

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil prices traded in positive territory on Thursday, but retreated from session highs during afternoon trading.

Several bullish factors supported prices, including United States companies cutting production, Saudi Arabia raising their official oil selling price and gasoline demand improving as economies around the world begin to start the reopening process.

WTI – CLM20, the United States benchmark, gained 1.5%, or 36 cents, to trade at $24.26 per barrel.

Earlier in Thursday’s session WTI had been up more than 11%, hitting a session high of $26.74.

This week, WTI has gained more than 27%, putting it on pace for one of its best weeks on record going back to the contract’s inception in 1983.

Of course, given the more than 50% decline this year a smaller move now accounts for a significantly larger percentage change.

Data from the Energy Information Administration showed that for the week ending May 1 production declined by 200,000 barrels per day to 11.9M BPD, which is more than 1M BPD below March’s record high.

Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips are among the companies that have cut production in the face of depressed prices.

While inventory in the United States is still rising, it’s now at a slower pace.

Last week, stockpiles grew by 4.6M Barrels, which was smaller than the 8.67M Barrels build analysts had been expecting.

While the demand for gasoline is still well below its highs, government data showed that it is starting to turn a corner as states start to open up their economies.

All eyes were on yesterday morning’s Unemployment Claims Report.

With now 33.5+ Million Americans put on unemployment within the last 7 weeks, and countless people who have been unable to successfully file, things to come remain rather grim looking.

So the question is … Is this rally overdone?

Given WTI’s nearly 40% gain this month, some say the rally is overdone, especially as storage around the world continues to fill.

Looking forward to June’s contract expiration may likely cause some anxiety in the market after what transpired last month when May’s contract expiration traded negative.

Time will tell as it always does!

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $13.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the $30.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the 57.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $30.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the mid $13.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the $30.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the $42.00 price area would be expected within several weeks and the $57.00 price area then attainable within several months, then likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below mid $13.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JUNE – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart. The market isn’t close to turning the main trend to bullish, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.80% retracement. A trade through $6.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market for this week-ending May 8 is likely to be determined by trader’s reaction to the pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at the $20.00 price area all week. Trader’s reaction to this level will set the tone. The market could get bullish over the $20.00 price area and bearish under the $11.00 price area

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $20.00 price area will indicate the bulls are getting stronger. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at the $30.00 price area.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $20.00 price area will signal the presence of bears. The first downside target is a steep downtrending angle at the $11.00 price area. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the next target the $6.50 price area.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

United States West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures were up for a third straight session when closing out last week’s trading activity as major producers began output cuts to offset a slump in fuel demand triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, while reported data showed United States Crude Inventories grew less than expected.

Futures prices are now within striking distance of the close on April 20 which is the day before the steep drop that saw nearby May futures plunging into negative territory for the first time in history. This move would diminish the impact of the historic break in crude oil just two weeks ago.

OPEC+ Production Cuts Began

Reflecting the output cuts agreed between OPEC and other major producers like Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, the imbalance between oil supply and demand is set to be halved to 13.6 million barrels per day (BPD) in May, and drop further to 6.1 million BPD in June.

U.S. Firms Cutting Production

Traders are saying production cuts of almost 10 million bpd by OPEC and it’s allies or about 10% of global production, which is due to take effect from May 1, are not going to have that much of an impact on prices without the United States curbing its own output.

While storage is rapidly filling up, production cuts by U.S. shale producers, are estimated at 300,000 BPD for May and June, should help slow the flow of excessive inventory into the reserve tanks.

Additionally, regulators in the U.S. state of Texas, the country’s biggest oil producer, will hold a vote on May 5 on whether to enact output curtailments. Officials in the states of North Dakota and Oklahoma are also examining ways to legally allow output cuts.

Oversupply Concerns Dampened

Storage concerns continue to weigh on markets with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that global capacity could reach its maximum by mid-June and that energy demand could slump by a record 6% in 2020 due to lockdowns. Nevertheless, WTI and Brent crude oil are rallying because of an easing of worries over rising United States stockpiles.

It started late Tuesday last week with the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly inventories report that showed a smaller than expected build, and continued on Wednesday when the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported numbers below forecasts.

According to the EIA, United States crude inventories grew by 9 million barrels last week to 527.6 million barrels, well below the 10.4 million-barrel rise analysts had expected.

United States gasoline stockpiles fell by 3.7 million barrels from record highs the previous week, with a slight rise in fuel demand offsetting a rebound in refinery output.

Demand Destruction Will Continue to Weigh on Prices

Prices are likely to fall further this year even as countries begin to ease restrictions imposed to counter the viral outbreak and the output cuts by big producers will not fix the supply glut.

The estimated shortfall this year is expected to be about 30 million BPD of demand. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic has obliterated demand with much of the world’s population still under some form of economic and/or social lockdown.

Short-Term Outlook

Gains are likely to be capped and selling pressure may resume over the short-run since the 30 million BPD plunge in demand is three times the size of the OPEC+ output cuts.

Prices could remain underpinned over the near-term, however, because of signs of a tightening of United States supply. Bullish traders and domestic oil companies are hoping this develops into a worthy trend. Nonetheless, industry professionals would like to see more aggressive cuts in production by United States producers.

What we’re seeing in the futures market is most likely profit-taking and light short-covering. Storage capacity is getting close to overflowing, but at a slower speed so short-sellers are merely making adjustments.

The smaller inventory builds should be noted but we’re going to need to see a continuation of this trend in the coming weeks to suggest the worst might be behind us. However, the reality is the already-stretched storage capacity is getting fuller and fuller every week, a rise in prices cannot be sustainable for long as the problem is still far from being resolved.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $14.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above the $31.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the 57.00 price area is in reach over the next 3-5 months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $31.00 price area can likely absorb buying pressure throughout the balance of May. Once tested, the market is susceptible to falling back to key support at the mid $14.00 price area within several weeks.

On the other hand, a daily settlement above the $31.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the $43.00 price area would be expected within several weeks and the $57.00 price area then attainable within several months, likely the high for the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below mid $14.00 price area would likely yield a $5.00 price area retest within several weeks, the lowest price support presently found on any chart without revisiting negative price territories.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JUNE – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart. The market isn’t close to turning the main trend to bullish, but there is room for a normal 50% to 60% retracement. A trade through $6.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market for this week-ending May 8 is likely to be determined by trader’s reaction to the pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at the $20.00 price area all week. Trader’s reaction to this level will set the tone. The market could get bullish over the $20.00 price area and bearish under the $11.00 price area.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $20.00 price area will indicate the bulls are getting stronger. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the resistance cluster at the $30.00 price area.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $20.00 price area will signal the presence of bears. The first downside target is a steep downtrending angle at the $11.00 price area. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the next target the $6.50 price area.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Oil and gas exploration and production companies are slated to lose a staggering $1 trillion in revenues in 2020. The industry, which includes oil majors, made $2.47 trillion in revenues globally last year. But this year it’s projected to bring in $1.47 trillion, reflecting a 40% decline year-on-year.

This comes as the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing lockdowns cripple demand and force companies to slash spending and cancel projects. Before the virus began to hit economies, revenues for 2020 were expected to reach $2.35 trillion. Returns for 2021 are now also projected lower, at $1.79 trillion compared to a forecast of $2.52 trillion before the pandemic.

Crude Oil Inventories reported on Wednesday rose LESS THAN forecasted. A 9M Barrel build as opposed to a predicted 11.2M Barrel build. This, in conjunction with the talks of a soft reopenings for economies around the world and the OPEC+ deal cuts going into effect May 1, prices have started to rally

Jobless claims continue to rise. New claims reached 3.84 million last week, bringing the total to 30.3 million for the last six weeks. The number of total claims makes this the worst unemployment crisis in United States history. The greatest consumers in the world are jobless and confined. To see these weekly jobless claims begin to reverse would give crude oil a great boost!

CLM20 has been Blacklisted, I spoke with TradeStation to try to get some clarification as to when client’s will be able to trade the front month CL contract again – the June CLM20 Contract has been blacklisted due to last week’s little adventure into the negatives. The July contract CLN20 is able to be traded today and as long as the market remains stable moving forward it will be able to be traded as the “front month” after the June contract expires.

Long-Term MONTHLY Price Outlook

The $12.00 price area can potentially absorb annual selling pressure, above which the mid $29.00 price area remains a several week target, the $57.00 price area is potentially in reach over the next several months.

Upside, the mid $29.00 price area can absorb buying pressure through the remaining May trading sessions, with a daily settlement above the mid $29.00 price area indicating a good annual low has been placed.

The $57.00 price area then becomes a several month target where the broader market can potentially place this calendar year’s high.

Downside, a daily settlement below the $12.00 price area will most likely yield a single digit or even a potentially negative price area retest within several days to follow.

Mid – Term WEEKLY Price Outlook … 4 / 27 – 5 / 1

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart.

A trade through the $6.00 price area will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main top at the $55.00 price area. However, this is extremely unlikely.

The minor trade range is between the $34.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level or pivot point is at the $20.00 price area.

The short-term trade range is between the $55.00 price area to the $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level comes in at the $31.00 price area.

The main trade range is the $64.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% to 60% retracement zone which is between the $35.00 price area and the $42.00 price area serves as a major price resistance.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract for the week-ending May 1 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending angle at the $15.00 price area.

Weekly Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $15.00 price area will indicate the presence of buyers.

If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Since the main trend remains bearish, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this level.

In attempts of the bears trying to overtake it, could potentially trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next major target coming in at the $31.00 price area.

Weekly Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $15.00 price area will signal the strong return of sellers.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with the next downtrending target angle coming in at negative price areas.

Short – Term DAILY Price Outlook … May 1, 2020

For Friday, the $12.00 price area remains a long-term support level that can absorb not only daily selling, but also selling pressure throughout the balance of May’s trading activity as long as the market continues placing weekly and monthly settlements above the $12.00 price area.

The next several weeks are likely to yield an upside potential of testing the $30.00 price area.

Upside today, the $19.00 price area most likely contains initial strength, beyond which the $24.00 price area is able to contain the balance of the session’s strength.

A settlement today above the $24.00 price area indicates potentially reaching the $30.00 price area within several days.

Downside today, a weekly settlement below the $12.00 price area allows a further fall to the single digit price area within days.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Leveraging the “Money Bounce” strategy…

As you may know, every Wednesday I run a free live training session for Hawkeye members and non-members alike.

It’s a great opportunity to ask questions and see exactly how I use the Hawkeye tools on the live edge of the market…

And I love the format because I’m able to demonstrate setups, strategies and techniques as they present themselves in real time.

This past Wednesday, I got to show one of my favorite strategies for finding profitable trades.

I call this one the “Money Bounce.”

Here, let me show you what it looks like:

Money Bounce

What you’re looking at here is the Russell index futures (ticker RTY).

The top left corner of the screen is the 3 minute chart…

Then you’ve got the 6 minute chart on the bottom left, and the 12 minute on the top right.

Now, the bottom right corner is the 60 minute chart with the Hawkeye Zones overlaid.

Those aqua and blue-colored horizontal bars you see are the Zones (more on that in just a second).

Now take a look at the 3 minute chart on the top left…

You can see that price was moving up until it hit resistance and reversed.

But when you look at the 60 minute chart overlaid with the Zones, you get a much better understanding of why price responded the way it did.

See, the color of each Zone bar tells you how many times price has interacted with that particular level.

So when we see price action moving toward an aqua bar, we know that it’s the first time price has reached that zone…

And because price typically interacts with a new zone 3 or more times before breaking through, the aqua zone represents the highest probability of a reversal.

In essence, the Money Bounce strategy is a reversal trade strategy.

When we see price moving toward an aqua Zone, the strategy is to take the opposite direction of the trade, risking to just outside the zone…

With the potential reward being the next zone in the opposite direction.

Now the great thing about Hawkeye Zones is that they can be applied to any type of chart, with or without any other software loaded…

Whether time chart (minute, hourly, daily, weekly) or specialty chart (tick, renko, share, range).

But the truth is that you’ll get the most from the Zones when using them in harmony with Hawkeye’s proprietary suite of volume-based indicators and tools.

Now if you’ve been on the fence about joining the worldwide community of Hawkeye traders…

Then I’d like to invite you to give our Professional Package a try for two weeks…

For just $1.

All you have to do is click right here to find out the details.

Of course, if you have any questions about becoming a Hawkeye Trader you can always call our VIP Client Services at (888) 233-8598!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

The late-week rally we experienced last week was likely being fueled by short-covering rather than speculative buying.

Nothing has changed in the fundamentals to turn the energy complex bullish in the last several days.

Oil remains under pressure and will continue to be for a little while, as world economies are attempting to reopen very slowly in the United States and Western Europe, although resumption in China still remains further down the line.

With May 1 approaching fast, the big question is how will the supply side deliver?

Prices could continue to firm up for this week if more OPEC+ members announce early production cuts.

An escalation of military activity in the Middle East would also be a driving factor for high prices.

However, the wildcard will be the announcement of oil output cuts made by the United States oil producers.

This news could potentially trigger a steep short-covering rally.

The demand destruction is expected to continue, but may slow down a bit if the COVID-19 curve continues to flatten.

Once the coronavirus is under control, output should rebound as well as prices, but don’t expect output or prices to return to pre-virus levels for quite some time.

Rising Tensions In The Middle East Threaten Supplies

After June futures hit $6.50 per barrel and the nearby futures contract went off the board, prices rose in reaction to an announcement from President Donald Trump in which he instructed the United States Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that harass them in the Gulf, although he added later he was not changing the military’s rules of engagement.

This ratchets up tensions once again between the United States and Iran.

However, given the glut we have in the oil market, it is difficult to see this offering lasting support to the market, unless the situation does escalate further.

From A Purely Technical Perspective…

Look out for a strong bullish upside bias to develop on a sustained move above the $20.00 price area…

And look out for a strong bearish downside bias to continue on a sustained move below the $15.00 price area.

April Crude Oil YEARLY Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on April 15, then pulls back into April 19 then makes a major top on May 2.
  • The 20 year cycle makes a major low on April 11 then rallies into the April 25.
  • The 30 year cycle continues its sell off into April 18 then rallies into the end of the month.

April is the second most bullish month of the year for crude oil.

With that said, there’s really no clear correlation to support that statement.

But, there is a seasonal tendency for oil prices to rally during the latter part of this month.

Key turning point dates:

  • April 3
  • April 16 to 17 – close to 10 and 30 year cycles
  • April 23 to 24 – close to 20 year cycle

Long-Term MONTHLY Price Outlook

The $12.00 price area can potentially absorb annual selling pressure, above which the $30.00 price area remains a several week target, the $57.00 price area is potentially in reach over the next several months.

Upside, the $30.00 price area can absorb buying pressure through May trading sessions, a daily settlement above the $30.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been placed.

Then the $57.00 price area becomes a several month target where the broader market can potentially place this calendar year’s high.

Downside, a daily settlement below the $12.00 price area will most likely yield a $1.00 price area test within several days to follow, the lowest price support presently found on any chart.

Further downside action would likely result in another negative price retest like we saw during the last week on the CLK20 expiring contract.

Mid – Term WEEKLY Price Outlook … 4 / 27 – 5 / 1

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart.

A trade through the $6.00 price area will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the last main top at the $55.00 price area.

However, this is extremely unlikely.

The minor trade range is between the $34.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level or pivot point is at the $20.00 price area.

The short-term trade range is between the $55.00 price area to the $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% level comes in at the $31.00 price area.

The main trade range is the $64.00 price area to $6.00 price area.

It’s 50% to 60% retracement zone which is between the $35.00 price area and the $42.00 price area serves as a major price resistance.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract for the week-ending May 1 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending angle at the $15.00 price area.

Weekly Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over the $15.00 price area will indicate the presence of buyers.

If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor pivot at the $20.00 price area.

Since the main trend remains bearish, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this level.

In attempts of the bears trying to overtake it, could potentially trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next major target coming in at the $31.00 price area.

Weekly Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the $15.00 price area will signal the strong return of sellers.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with the next downtrending target angle coming in at negative price areas.

Short – Term DAILY Price Outlook … April 28, 2020

For Tuesday, the $12.00 price area remains a long-term support level that can absorb not only daily selling, but also selling pressure throughout the balance of May’s trading activity as long as the market continues placing weekly and monthly settlements above the $12.00 price area.

Upside today, the $17.00 price area would most likely contain initial strength, beyond which the $19.00 price area is able to contain the balance of the session’s strength.

A settlement today above the $19.00 price area indicates potentially reaching the $22.00 price area within several days and a next $30.00 price area target could then potentially be within reach by the end of next week.

Downside today, opening / breaking below the $12.00 price area allows a further fall to the $11.00 price area intraday.

A weekly settlement today below the $12.00 price area critical support will likely allow for further bearish downside back into the single digit prices again, potentially as low as the $1.00 price area by the week’s end.

Let’s reflect on Monday’s charts above.

The price action on the 240 minute chart(s) exited congestion during the pre-market hours on Monday morning on the currently traded and 2 future expiring contracts.

A successful retest of the $12.00 price area held prices from falling further.

Today’s closing price on the closest expiring contract CLM20 was $12.93.

Fresh Hawkeye Demand Zone(s) on the 240 / 480 / 960 Minute and Daily Charts all held selling pressure from falling further during Monday’s trading session.

Confluence among Hawkeye Supply and Demand Zones stacks the odds in our favor of predicting price action and are key for establishing price targets.

The Zones on the 240, 480 & 960 Minute charts all presented clear target(s) to have taken a short position when price exited congestion on the 240 chart.

While there is clearly a bearish sediment in the market, the $12.00 price area remains a key area to hold and resume closing above in order to avoid retesting single digit prices again.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

Do you know how to read this critical market metric?

One of our members posted a great question this week inside the Hawkeye Traders Inner Circle.

Let me just say, I love interacting with our members there day to day…

But I also love seeing our members interacting with and helping each other.

The camaraderie is really something special…

And with so many traders of all different experience levels in the group, it’s an incredible resource for newer traders to learn and develop their skills.

OK, enough with the warm and fuzzies… back to the question.

Gregory asked, “What does tick speed tell you?”

This really is an important question, because tick speed is one of the most critical elements you need to understand as a trader.

See, tick speed is a measure of the actual number of trades taken per price bar.

Many traders don’t realize it, but tick speed is the most accurate way of measuring market momentum because it represents each change in price, irrespective of the time taken.

When you know the tick speed at which the markets are operating, it allows you to set your chart speeds in harmony with the changes in the markets.

That, of course, can lead to more accurate… and profitable… trading.

Now, that’s all great in theory…

But how do you actually measure and select the right tick speed in your day-to-day trading?

That’s where the Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger come into play.

Here, let me show you an example from an E-mini futures chart:

Hawkeye Gears Example

On this chart, you can see 4 tick speeds that Hawkeye GearBox calculated on this particular day.

The three speeds annotated by the top three arrows show the optimal speeds you’d use to trade the E-mini in this situation.

Now, at the bottom of the chart you’ll see the Hawkeye GearChanger.

The GearChanger shows you the correct market speed at any given point during the day (where the bottom red arrow is pointing).

Because the tick speeds are color coded, you can quickly glance at the GearChanger to know exactly which tick speed you should be trading at.

So, when the GearChanger changes color — say, to orange — you know to trade off the appropriate orange tick speed, indicated by the GearBox value for orange (6,160 ticks in this case).

And there you have it…

A quick and dirty breakdown of tick speed, and how Hawkeye helps you trade at the optimal tick speed at all times.

Of course, the GearBox and GearChanger are included as part of the Hawkeye Professional Package…

But you can also get them as a stand-alone module to add to your Hawkeye Starter or Standard setup.

Just click here to learn more and grab your copy of the GearCombo Module at a special members-only rate!

“Crude Corner”: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

On Wednesday, the United States Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories rose another 15 million barrels for the week ended April 17 to 518.6 million barrels.

That marked a 13-week climb and followed a record weekly increase of 19.2 million barrels a week earlier.

Another large oil build propels us closer to a record oil inventory level, which is now less than 17 million barrels away.

As refining activity dips to a new 12-year low, the crude build has actually been kept in check by lower oil imports – dropping below 5 million barrels per day for the first time in the weekly data since 1992.

Rising Unemployment, Rising Oil Inventory

The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits totaled 4.427 million last week.

Combined with the prior four jobless claims reports, the number of Americans who have filed for unemployment over the last five weeks is 26.45 million.

That number far exceeds the 22.442 million jobs added to payrolls since November 2009, when the U.S. economy began to add jobs back after the recession.

The bottom line is that 26.45M people are NOT consuming products produced by crude oil.

They aren’t commuting, going to the gym, going out to dinner or leisurely traveling.

April Crude Oil YEARLY Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on April 15, the pulls back into April 19 then makes a major top on May 2.
  • The 20 year cycle makes a major low on the April 11 then rallies into the April 25.
  • The 30 year cycle continues its sell off into April 18 then rallies into the end of the month.

Historically, April is the second most bullish month of the year for crude oil.

With that said, there’s really no clear correlation to support that statement right now.

But, there is a seasonal tendency for oil prices to rally during the latter part of this month.

Key turning point dates:

  • April 3
  • April 16 to 17 – close to 10 and 30 year cycles
  • April 23 to 24 – close to 20 year cycle

Long-Term MONTHLY Price Outlook

The $12.00 price area can potentially absorb annual selling pressure, above which the $28.00 price area remains a several week target, the $57.00 price area is potentially in reach over the next several months.

Upside, the $28.00 price area can absorb buying pressure through the remaining May trading sessions, with a daily settlement above the $28.00 price area indicating a good annual low has been placed.

The $57.00 price area then becomes a several month target where the broader market can potentially place this calendar year’s high.

Downside, a daily settlement below the $12.00 price area will most likely yield a $3.00 price area test within several days to follow, the lowest price support presently found on any chart.

Further downside would result in another negative price retest like we saw earlier in the week on the May CLK20 expiring contract.

WEEKLY Price Outlook … April 20 – 24, 2020

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart.

The market is in no position to change the main trend to bullish, but holding the mid-March bottom at $21.00 price area which could help June WTI crude oil build a solid enough base to support a strong short-covering rally…

While the short-term trend also remains bearish.

Taking out the short-term top at the $34.00 price area won’t change the main trend to bullish, but it will shift momentum to the upside.

Taking out $21.00 price area will reaffirm the downward bearish trend.

The short-term range is between the $21.00 to $34.00 price range.

Its 50% level or pivot at the $28.00 price area is controlling the weekly direction of the market.

On the upside, the nearest 50% level resistance comes in at the $38.00 price area.

Based on the past week’s price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market for the week ending April 24 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at the $28.00 price area.

Downside, a sustained move under the $28.00 price area will indicate the strong presence of sellers.

The first target is the main bottom at the $21.00 price area.

Penetrating this bottom will indicate the selling pressure is gaining traction.

Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at $19.00 price area will put the June WTI futures contract in an extremely bearish position, most likely creating a further downside move.

Upside, a sustained move over the $28.00 price area will signal the presence of optimistic buyers.

If this move is able to create enough upside momentum then look for a potential spike into the $34.00 price area.

Short – Term DAILY Price Outlook … April 24, 2020

For Friday, the $12.00 price area remains a long-term support level that can absorb not only daily selling, but also selling pressure throughout the balance of May’s trading activity as long as the market continues placing weekly and monthly settlements above $12.00 price area.

The next several weeks are likely to yield an upside potential of testing the $30.00 price area.

Upside today, the $19.00 price area most would likely contain initial strength, beyond which the $22.00 price area is likely and able to contain the balance of the session’s strength.

A settlement today above the $22.00 price area indicates potentially reaching the $27.00 price area within several days.

Downside today, breaking below the $12.00 price area allows a further fall to the $11.00 price area intraday.

A weekly settlement today below the $12.00 price area will likely allow further downside to the $3.00 price area next week.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

“Crude Corner”: What In The History Of Crude Happened Yesterday?

While the markets were spiking last week thanks to some optimism on the COVID-19 vaccine and promising plans to begin a slow reopening of the United States economy, oil is once again marching to the beat of a different drum. 

Having suffered the most precipitous collapse ever with prices never seen before and even trading into the negative, something more positive is apparent. This is not reflected in the immediate trading price. Rather, this is being reflected in future expiring contract trading prices attempting to recover.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye’s volume-based suite of indicators can help you spot opportunities on oil?

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“Crude Corner”: This Week’s Crude Oil Roundup

Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report

Oil dropped to its lowest level in more than 18 years during Wednesday’s trading session amid reports suggesting persistent oversupply and collapsing demand due to COVID-19 outbreak related economic lockdowns.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, United States crude inventories increased by a larger than expected amount of 13.1 million barrels. According to data from the United States Energy Information Administration, for the week ending April 10 inventory increased by 19.2 million barrels.

Analysts had been expecting a rise of 12.02 million barrels. There is no feasible agreement that could possibly cut supply by enough to offset such near-term demand losses.

Headlines Suppressing Demand

Consumer and manufacturing reports for March showed a significant hit to the economy from the COVID-19 outbreak was even swifter and deeper in the early weeks of the shutdown than anticipated.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever recorded in government history. The New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all-time low, declining a shocking 78.2%. Industrial production slipped 5.4%, the largest decline since 1946, and manufacturing was down 6.3%, a record reflecting in part the 28% decline in auto production as plants shut down.

The economic reports showed the double whammy of state shutdowns in mid-March on two pillars of the economy – the consumer and business. The reports were even more dire than expected, and foreshadow even worse declines in April’s activity, with state shutdowns affecting areas responsible for more than 90% of the economy.

Unemployment Suppressing Demand

The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits totaled 5.245 million last week.

Combined with the prior three jobless claims reports, the number of Americans who’ve filed for unemployment over the last four weeks is 22.025 million.

That number is just below the 22.442 million jobs added to payrolls since November 2009, when the U.S. economy began to add jobs back after the recession.

Nearly an Entire Decade of Progress Set Back in Only 4 Weeks Time

In 4 weeks time we have nearly given back all of our employment progress made in the past decade. That’s 22 million cars that don’t get started and driven to work everyday, along with 22 million incomes that have been impacted causing no travel demand, creating limited forms of consumption. In conjunction with heavy over supply and forced suppressed demand due to shutdown orders, the foreseeable future for energy prices look very grim.

On The Charts

Upside Scenario: 38.21 can contain buying through May, once tested the market is susceptible to falling back to 21.83 within 2-3 weeks. On the other hand, a daily settlement above 38.21 would indicate a good low into summer activity, 57.50 then expected within 2-3 months.

Downside Scenario: A weekly settlement below 21.83 (and below the recent 21.51 low weekly- settlement) would indicate 12.17 within 3-5 weeks, the next long-term support threshold able to absorb selling through the year, and regarding 12.17, quite possibly the balance of the decade.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye’s volume-based suite of indicators can help you spot opportunities on oil?

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The Bull Trend Continues

In today’s update, I discuss how the bull trend continues in the index markets. I don’t mention it in the video, but Gold almost made it to $1800/oz today, breaking through resistance like a hot knife in butter.

The Bull Trend Continues

From the daily ES chart (S&P 500), it’s clear to see the Hawkeye trend is in a strong bullish breakout. Last week, we alerted you to this potential, and it is being realizes even today. While the daily tend is clearly bullish, the weekly still has a way to go to confirm the break, as volume is still declining and is still showing bearish pressure. 2873.50 is the break point to the high side if we are going to see the up-trend continue. The upside target will be in the 3040 area. If 2873.50 holds, then we could see prices back down to the low-side support at 2634ish. At the moment, volume is still lower than expected, and volatility is continuing to drop, which are all signs of a continued upward price move.

Although I didn’t discuss it in the video, Gold has been remarkable in it’s bullish rise through price. Today, the GC (gold futures) almost hit $1800, a price level not seen since early 2013. GC cut through resistance at 1674 like a hot knife in butter, and looks to firmly have broken into the new supply zone area. Expect price to pull back to validate the 1674 break before it starts to consolidate in the 1800 area.

The Hawkeye Perspective

If you follow volume and price, it’s clear to know where the important breaks in price are, and where price is heading. Don’t miss the opportunities presented to you in these markets, and make sure to listen to what the markets are saying. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Watching The Signals Align On a Potential Windfall

In today’s video update, Randy is breaking down a potential entry setting up right now on the S&P.

Randy first identified this setup on Monday, when Hawkeye signaled a break from consolidation following the market close…

And if it ends up as a true long entry signal, traders stand to see a potential windfall.

Check out the video to learn the confirmation signals he’s watching for before the long weekend…

And how the Hawkeye method can tip you off to major opportunities just like this one!

Want to learn more about becoming a Hawkeye Trader? Call (888) 233-8598 and ask our VIP Client Services representative about a very special discounted offer!

Bullish Breakout to the Upside

In today’s market update, I’m watching the potential bullish breakout to the upside in the S&P 500 emini (ES). If today’s close is greater than 2634.50, we confirm a bullish break of congestion, and expect the market to advance higher, up to the next resistance zone.

From the charts

The daily charts show a strong bullish bar that is breaking out, but it needs to confirm by closing above 2634.50, our key breakout level. Notice the declining volume bars going into the low of the daily charts – this is hidden bullishness. Hawkeye volume also shows a great bullish reversal bar on the weekly chart. The monthly chart also confirmed a bounce off the lower trendline with increasing volume.

The Hawkeye Perspective

From our Six Ways a Market Moves teaching, we know that a break from consolidation leads directly into a trend run phase. So expect a bullish break from the S&P if today’s close is confirmed above 2634.50. Know where the markets are expected to go with your very own Hawkeye license.

$2000 in Two Hours Following the Rules

In today’s update, I show how the basic Hawkeye tools identified just over $2000 in two hours following the rules. Using only the Hawkeye Standard Package tools, I show the setup, entry, and exit of a short emini S&P (ES) idea.

From the charts

Using a 3min chart as my trade chart, I use 6min and 12min charts for confirmation. The trade setup came at 0618am with a break of consolidation, and confirmation of volume and momentum on the 6min and volume on the 12min. This served as the setup to confirm the entry criteria. That was my trigger bar, so I enter on the following bar. By applying my Hawkeye Levels ATR, I know exactly my risk in the trade, and I see the reward targets laid out before me.

With only one contract traded, my goal was to maximize the reward and get at least a Level 5 or Level 7. Level 5 was hit after two hours, and exhaustion bars identified, so the trade was ended. The result was 40.5 ES points, or just over $2000/contract traded.

The Hawkeye Perspective

Using just the Hawkeye Standard Package, I was able to show how to identify a high probability setup, how to enter the trade with confidence, and how to exit the trade at a point that maximized my rewards. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Can you say Volatility?

In today’s market update, I want to ask you a question: Can you say Volatility? Of course you can, but wow, the markets are shouting it from the roof tops! I review the current charts on volatility, including updates on index futures, gold, and coffee.

From the charts

The daily chart of the volatility index (VIX) gives us a great picture of the current market change. In only four weeks, the VIX has surged from 12 to over 85, just short of the 2008-2009 housing bubble fiasco, where VIX shot up to 89.53. As you know, when VIX goes up, the market usually goes down. Also, as VIX increases, so does the ATR of the markets. And this has a HUGE impact on retail traders, and their ability to trade these markets.

With increasing volatility, the brokerages are also enacting FULL margin requirements on all positions, and are liquidating positions that don’t have stop orders attached. And the margin requirements for many of the futures markets have gone ballistic. For example, the Nasdaq (NQ) has an initial margin requirement of $16,500. Many retail traders only have accounts in the $5000 – $10,000 range, so this effectively keeps them from trading this market.

However, with the injection of new money into the markets from the government, via buying debt, there is a brief relaxing in the VIX, and corresponding rallies in the equity markets. Hopefully, this will be enough to create a consolidation area and enough time for the markets to pause and regroup.

Gold is going ballistic again. Overnight, gold rose over $130, getting back into striking range of $1700/oz. Watch for the recent strength of the USD to begin to weaken.

Last but not least is coffee. Last week, I highlighted coffee in the $108 range. I showed the technical reasons to start to accumulate coffee and to watch for reasons to go long. Today, coffee has hit over $125, up over $17 since last week.

The Hawkeye Perspective

If you know how to read the charts, volume and price are telling you a story. Are you listening, and can you understand what the markets are telling you? We teach you every week how to interpret volume and price together. Get started today with your very own copy of Hawkeye, by clicking the link below. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Is Coffee Ready for a Turnaround?

Is coffee ready for a turnaround? In today’s update, I provide a brief update on the current state of the markets from a Hawkeye perspective, and I highlight a potential build in a coffee turnaround. Is the downtrend in coffee over? I’ll show you my analysis in today’s video.

From the charts

In today’s analysis, I quickly go over the major markets using the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Using the Hawkeye Professional tools and the Zones make it easy to analyze and see where price can potentially go, based on volume. I looked at the S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, Russell, Coffee, and Bitcoin. It was very interesting to see how much media influenced hysteria has affected the markets, as the route in prices continue.

The S&P has broken support as 2319 and looks to have sights on the psych support at 2100, or even 2000. =O The Dow and Russell show very similar charts, with corresponding low side targets at 17687 (Dow) and 950 (Russell). The Nasdaq has not taken the hit as much as the other markets, and is showing support at 6680. If this breaks, then the downside target would be below 6000. =O

Finally, there were two markets we saw some possible light at the end of the tunnel. Coffee and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has lost over 50% of it’s value in one month. =O But we see it has entered into a strong support demand zone just below 4300. It is there we saw buying pressure begin, and now the build for a potential v-shaped rebound. The upside targets would be back to 7000, 8000, or maybe even 9000.

Coffee has found support just under 100, and is showing good volume accumulation/distribution patterns. In addition, price has failed to create new lows, thus setting up a great base for a spring upwards, or upthrust. The targets for the potential reversal would be back to 120, 135, 144, or even back above 200.

The Hawkeye Perspective

Is Coffee ready for a turnaround? It very well could be, but the timing might be early… make sure Hawkeye confirms any entry by following the rules. And the best way to do that is with your very own Hawkeye Professional Package Lifetime license.

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