A Very Crude Conversation

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A Very Crude Conversation

Today, I want to have a very crude conversation with you. Uh, crude oil that is! Crude oil inventories are out today and I want to let you know the Hawkeye perspective. Here is my video update for today:

The Hawkeye Perspective

Crude oil is continuing to fall in price in recent history. Ever since the Saudi oil field attacks, the price of crude oil has steadily dropped over $10/barrel. However, I see support has formed and I am getting indications that we might see price rising on the longer term picture.

The weekly and monthly charts show a consolidation wedge formation, with crude oil prices at the bottom of the wedge. If it holds, I expect to see price “bounce” off the lower channel back up to the middle, around the $55-$56 range. The most interesting indication is the Hawkeye Fatboy. It is showing that crude is extremely oversold and starting to build strength.

On the hourly chart, I see a change of character in buying pressure (volume). The London session was very bullish for crude oil. With inventories out today, and the expectation is for a reduction in stockpiles, I look for continued bullishness in price. The Hawkeye Zones puts the price targets at $53.80 and $54.30 to the upside. Downside targets would be back to $52.50.

Yes, it was a very crude conversation, but I trust it was informative. I hope to see you in my training room today. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Volatility is Back

Volatility is back. All the major markets have failed to produce new highs. With increased tension all over the world, there are definite signs that October will be a volatile month for sure. Here is my market update:

When volatility rises, markets fall… it’s the nature of the beast. Markets fail on uncertainty and chaos… trade wars, impeachment, regional instability, political crusades, manufacturing declines, etc… All of these create uncertainty in the markets, which increases volatility. Irrational exuberance sets in and people do things unexpectedly.

As a result, the markets usually fall during these times of uncertainty. In today’s update, I show how the major markets have failed to make new highs, and are starting to show downtrends. This may or may not be major moves, but one thing is for certain… October is showing all the signs of a turbulent month. Volatility is rising, and the markets are falling. Make sure you are on the right side. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Crude Oil is in the News Again.

Crude oil is in the news again, with Saudi Arabia agreeing to a partial cease-fire with Yemen. Crude oil ($CL_F) responded with a 1% drop in prices. How do you view and trade this opportunity? I discuss this in today’s video update.

Using technical analysis, it’s easy to see the manipulation of price in the markets. Prior to the report, Hawkeye volume identified clear buying pressure during the London open. The intent was to bring price back to a region that is attractive to sellers, namely overhead supply. And that’s exactly what happend, as price rallied back to yesterday’s close.

Then it’s very easy to see the selling pressure put at that level. Hawkeye Volume and Hawkeye Zones working together to show the true market intent, over 2 hours in advance.

Supply regions are graphically shown using the Hawkeye Zones. I like to use it on a 60min chart, which I think acts like a “price magnet”.

Once you get a market event that produces a long-range bar (Hawkeye Widebar), we know exactly how to trade the resulting trend. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Saudi Attack Brings Uncertainty in Crude Prices

The recent attack on the Saudi oil production facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais caused the price of Crude Oil (@CL) to spike. Rising up to 18%, CL prices have broken out of daily consolidation, into overhead supply. This Saudi attack brings uncertainty in crude prices, and I share my analysis in today’s update.

While the daily price has broken our consolidation range, the weekly price has also broken it’s consolidation triangle. This was the bullish move we expected from CL, but definitely not the reason behind it.

It’s difficult to trade when global economic events occur, causing volatility to spike and prices to rise. But with the right training in risk management, you minimize any risk potential and are always ready for unintended consequences.

The potential consequences to this sudden move in oil will be noticeable. Look for oil exporting nations to benefit (CAD) and for oil importing nations to suffer (EUR). Risk-off currencies like USD and JPY will benefit while AUD and NZD would suffer.

Bottom line, the price of Crude will probably stay higher, and continue to increase if the break of supply isn’t fixed soon. This Saudi attack brings uncertainty in crude prices, that’s for sure. But if you know how to manage risk, you know how to trade. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Crude Oil is Getting Ready for a Big Move

I’ve been watching crude oil for a while now. Today I see signs that crude oil is getting ready for a big move, and I wanted to point it out to you.

On a daily chart, crude oil has been in consolidation for a while. Shown by a series of descending highs and ascending lows, its forming a nice pennant flag. The energy is building as the price “coils up” inside the flag region, setting the stage for the next big move.

The Hawkeye Perspective
According to the 6 Ways teaching we give our students, I identified a bullish break of consolidation. While this technically is called a trend run, crude price still needs to break the Hawkeye stops in order for us to confirm the up trend.

Finally, volume has to be present to support the move. Right now, we see above average buying volume on the daily, and declining selling volume on the weekly. This weekly selling pressure is not producing lower lows in price, which actually is a bullish sign.

Based on this and our Zones indicator, we expect to see a potential move of crude oil back up to 60, 63 or even 74 in time. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

This CL Trade Didn’t Disappoint – CL Continuation Trade

In yesterday’s update, I showed a nice setup trade in CL and said there was more to come. Well, this CL trade didn’t disappoint. It went on to produce $1,430. But that wasn’t the end. Watch today’s update to see where it went.

Following my Hawkeye rules, the trade setup showed a clear entry and multiple exits. I showed in yesterday’s video the 1st exit: $290 in 45 minutes. It went on and produced another $480 in the next hour, and then $660 in the next 10 mins.

I could not stick with the trade, as I had to prepare for a live webinar. However, when I said it had a lot more to give, it had A LOT more to give.

I shared in the Hawkeye Chat Room this text: “CL is continuing to break long… my target is 56.40”. This target was based on the Hawkeye Zones, a dynamic supply/demand zone indicator. And the final stopping point of CL was right at that Zone!

So when I said there was more profit to come, CL delivered. It went up another $1.50, which equates to $1,500/contract. This CL trade didn’t disappoint. Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Killer Crude Oil Setup

Today I want to show you a killer crude oil setup that occurred live. Using supply and demand as targets, Hawkeye knows when to look for trades, and which direction to trade them.

In today’s video, I show the setup and trade results possible to anyone using these killer indicators.

You see, Hawkeye is designed with traders in mind. The Hawkeye Zones show active supply and demand zones and they draw automatically on any chart. Hawkeye Widebar gives us rules to trade by that help to keep us safe. Our Hawkeye Trend and Volume show us the direction of the trade and when to enter. Finally the Hawkeye Levels ATR shows us the risk we take, and the profit targets where we exit.

Hawkeye is a complete packge that helps to keep you safe in volatile markets. As a result, you can learn to trade with confidence and precision, regardless of the market you trade – futures, stocks, Forex, cryptos, options, or commodities. Learn today to trade the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Correlation Trade Setup – $1800 in One Hour

Correlation Trade Setup

Hawkeye Fatboy identified a correlation trade setup in the futures markets. This setup resulted in over $1800 in only one hour.

You see, when you identify correlated markets, you can take advantage of the price action in multiple markets at the same time. As a result, you can double or triple your what you normally trade, without being overly complicated.

You can directly measure the energy flow of a market using the Hawkeye Fatboy. It identifies overbought/oversold conditions, in addition to when markets are correlated or not. As a result, you get a very good measure of the market’s intent.

I share this strategy and results in the video update for today. This correlation trade setup is a really great tool if you can identify and act on it. Learn today to trade the Hawkeye way!

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Gold is on Fire – Hawkeye is Still Bullish on Gold

Gold is on Fire

Gold is on fire! Hawkeye identified a bullish trend in Gold (GC) on June 3rd, 2019. If taken, the trade is worth $21,270/contract today. Using the Hawkeye Profit Accelerator, that same trade would have built up to $148,890 as of today. Since the bullish trend is still in tact, we expect to see more in the future.

Obviously, the chart shown is a daily chart. So the margin and account size needed would not be suitable to a beginning trader. But consider the opportunities that each day provides to those who know what to look for. So look for these same type of setups and trades, which will occur on an intraday basis, and trade them the same way.

Personally, I prefer to use the 3 minute, 6 minute, and 12 minute charts for intraday trend trading. Look for opportunities within the bigger trends.

The idea is this: identify the trend, stick with the trend, and build your position on strength. We have a suite of indicators that help you do just that. Yes, gold is on fire. Learn to trade gold the Hawkeye way.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

There’s Always a Bull Market Somewhere – Profit on Gold and Bonds.

Bull Market Somewhere

While the S&P and Dow make serious corrections, the Bond and Gold markets are ripping higher as traders seek a safety net. See Randy’s breakdown and analysis in today’s market update. There’s always a bull market somewhere.

While the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in correction mode, it makes trading much more difficult. It’s nice to know that there is always a bull market somewhere else. We found that in the precious metals and gold market. I expect to see @ES prices back to at least the 2900 level, but gold (@GC) should break back through the key 1500 level, and the 30 year bond (@US) should get to 164.

The @US is making a double-top so I expect it to pause, forming a pivot high. I will be looking for a 3-5 bar correction once this occurs.

Click Here for the Free Book (The Lost Art of Volume Price Analysis)

Or for a Free Trial of the Hawkeye Trading Software

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Micro Futures

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi everyone.

I have been watching the Micro Futures market ever since May 5th when it was made available to trade by my broker. I thought it would be a perfect market to move from Sim to live with as a new trader to the Hawkeye System.

Why Micro Futures?

The micro markets would be a great way to get my feet wet live without investing too much capital. For the dow it is $0.50 point (I know, that’s not saying much but it is better than $0.00 that I get in Sim :)) and the dow mini is $5.00 point.

Let’s put this into the perspective of a trade.

In the e-mini market I put at risk $5 for every point I need my stop to be on the other side of my entry to safely give the trade room to breath.

If a trader is worried about risking, let’s say, $100 of their small account then a person might tend to make the stop smaller to ‘conserve capital’. This may make the trade a much riskier one since the stop is not in the best place possible.

If that same trader were to use the Micro futures, they would comfortably be able to put their stop at the appropriate place as they would only be risking $10 and not $100.

Seeing their trades work out because they are not worried about the dollar amount time after time puts a trader into a better mental frame of mind. This gives them confidence to keep making the right trading decisions and growing their account instead of being worried about losing the money and making their stops too tight.

Another benefit I see of the Micro futures market is that you can move up on your time frames for entry without risking more than you would in the Mini futures market.

Using the Hawkeye 3-Step Method for the Win

Hawkeye has the 3-Step Entry method which I have been practicing. Due to my risk tolerance, I have been trading a smaller time frame than the recommended 3 minute.

As many traders know, the smaller the time frame, the more gyrations. So, I was getting stopped out a little more than I liked.

The method still worked. But the win ratio was smaller than what I was seeing from 3 minute time frame traders. Higher win ratio translates to higher P&L and I want that. I think trading the micro futures is my way to achieving that win rate and higher P&L.

Is There Enough Volume in the Market?

Since Hawkeye is strongly volume based, I wondered if there would be enough volume to trade the system well.

For the first week the volume was low. On the second week I noticed that volume was good during the New York trading day but not good outside of that time. The daily volume after market open has grown slowly but steadily over these last couple weeks. Today however, the volume shot up (compared to the other days). The micro Dow futures has been hovering around 10-15% of the Mini’s market for the last week. But today, it was 23% by the writing of this blog.

I think it will only get better from here.

Daily Volume Micro Futures

A small caveat; the price bars can be a bit ‘gappy’ with the smaller volume. So, I have taken to using the signals from the 3 minute YM (emini) and placing the trades on the MYM (micro). Fills have been decent however there can be a bit of slippage. But at $0.50/point, I’m not worried . . .

I look forward to seeing this market grow and, maybe, see some of you join me there.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

Full disclosure: I only trade the Dow and so am not familiar with the volume on any of the other micro markets. Please check your market before trading.

 


 

 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Full Analysis on the S&P

With so much in the news regarding financial meltdown, let’s take a good Hawkeye look at the eMini.

Monthly S&P Chart
Daily S&P

Firstly look at the Hawkeye Volume – three months of no demand and one month of selling volume, giving you the heads up that the dominant uptrend was going to retrace.

Now, look where I have placed the dotted lines on the price. The higher one shows a double top with the two Hawkeye Pivot dots in yellow, the lower dotted line shows where price came to and found support right at the Hawkeye stops (indicated by the green crosses).

6 Ways a Market Moves shows congestion, and if prices rise next month a Hawkeye Pivot low will be printed. However, if the low of this monthly bar closes under the Hawkeye stops, a down trend will be established.

Weekly S&P Chart
Weekly S&P

A congestion break-out to the downside found support where I have started the blue line on price. Now look at Hawkeye Volume – although a major price move was not accompanied by ultra high volume, just high volume, and at the end of the week, Friday Hawkeye Volume shows buying volume. And if next week is up, a Hawkeye Pivot low will be established

Daily S&P Chart
Monthly S&P

Now it gets interesting. Remember what I teach at Hawkeye seminars – “The Tanker Effect”; when the markets are fast and volatile price shoots through the previous support. Look at the lowest price bar. Three days back it straddled both previous lows (shown by the blue lines on the chart), and rallied on buying volume, followed by two days of neutral volume indicating support as shown by the price action.

And now the final piece. 6 Ways a Market Moves. Look at the Trend dot crunching right up, still down so still a trend run. But if Monday is up the dot will go flat indicating congestion entrance.

We demonstrate this and many other methods in our live demonstration room held every Wednesday, and this is open to everyone. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Good Fortune,

Nigel Hawkes
Hawkeye Traders

[The cyan arrows and red lines are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Get Ready for a Potentially Great Trade

Are you ready for a potentially great trade? The dollar index is breaking out of an 8-month trading range. This is happening on some of the strongest economic numbers since 2009. The Fed was requiring stronger economic data – and that arrived on Friday.

The sentiment is that there will be a rate raise at the next Fed meeting. If this is the case the dollar rally is just starting and Hawkeye will show the way.

Dollar Index Monthly Chart

Dollar Monthly Chart
We are now approaching the high that was established 8 months ago and a Hawkeye Zone at 104.13, but we require more volume to provide the market energy to breach this overhead resistance.

Dollar Index Weekly Chart

Dollar Weekly Chart
Price is now in a Hawkeye Zone, with the top side being 101.45. However, attendant volume is not rising, which it needs to do to be able to break out to the upside.

Dollar Index Daily Chart

Dollar Daily Chart
Now this really tells us the story: Good increasing daily volume on a Hawkeye Wide Bar on Friday. As a result, price should retrace back into the Wide Bar in the early part of the week.  Then, look for volume to push price up to the Hawkeye Zones area

Hawkeye Perspective

A potentially great trade is in the making. If 101.45 is breached we should be on our way to a substantial Dollar rally, and a potentially great trade. Overhead resistance has to be taken out, so no maverick trades please. But have this on the radar as a potentially extremely profitable trade is being set up.

And remember, if the dollar goes up look to a short bond trade… yet another potentially great trade.

We demonstrate this and many other methods in our live demonstration room held every Wednesday, and this is open to everyone. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Good Fortune,

Nigel Hawkes
Hawkeye Traders

[The magenta arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]