Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Join countless traders worldwide who use
the Hawkeye algorithms day in and day out to gain a powerful edge

Crude Corner: Oil Industry Insights, Market Analysis and Price Outlook

Crude Corner Swing Trade Position Update

On Sunday evening May 10, 2020 at 1800 EST, we entered a swing trade position.

Position Size: 10 Contracts

Trade Directions: Long

Contract: CLN20

Purchase Price: $26.04

Position Stopped Out at $31.57

Total trade profit: $55,800 inside of two weeks!

This particular trading strategy is the flagship of this system. We recommend only the highest probability of successful passive trades for massive income. These trades occur on average less than twice a month, but when they pay… they pay BIG!

Crude Corner Weekly Trade Recap … 5/18 – 5/22

Our bullish breakout confirmed a long entry at $30.75. We entered the trade with 3 targets: one contract to be executed at each target.

Once the first target contract was filled, we moved our stop to break even as there was no reason to risk our profit on the table for the remainder of the week.

Targets 2 and 3 later in the week were successfully filled.

So the total take for last week executing this strategy paid us $5,600.

Not too shabby for just having to set up the trade, move your stop to break even, step aside and let it ride!

Have you taken advantage of any of these crude oil moves?

If so, hit leave a comment and tell us what trade you took and how you did!

Oil prices rose to the highest level since March on Thursday, supported by lower United States crude inventories, OPEC-led supply cuts and recovering demand as governments ease restrictions imposed on people’s movements due to the coronavirus crisis.

In the latest sign the supply glut is easing, United States crude inventories fell approximately million barrels last week. Meanwhile, analysts had been expecting an increase.

The rally in the crude futures is beginning to approach levels in which United States shale production declines will begin to slow and possibly reverse as low cost producers attempt to generate revenue.

At the same time, there is evidence of recovering in fuel consumption.

Top United States airlines and Air Canada on Tuesday reported slower ticket cancellations and an improvement in bookings on some routes, though executives said overall demand remained relatively weak.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut supply by a record 9.7 million barrels per day from May 1.

So far in May, OPEC+ has cut oil exports by about 6 million BPD, according to companies that track the flows, suggesting a strong start in complying with the deal. OPEC says the market has responded well.

Unemployment Remains a Concern

With now nearly 39 million American workers on unemployment and countless Americans who are either ineligible to collect or are still waiting for their unemployment to be processed – growing recession / depression concerns linger.

YEARLY Crude Oil Cycles

  • The 10 year cycle makes a high on May 3 and then sells off sharply into May 25 after which it rallies from a major low.
  • The 20 year cycle rallies sharply into May 19 then trades sideways into month end.
  • The 30 year cycle rallies into May 14 then sells off into the end of the month.
  • The 10 and 30 year cycles both head down from the 14th May.

Key turning point dates:

  • May 4
  • May 18
  • May 29

MONTHLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLN20 )

The mid $12.00 price area can absorb annual selling pressures. Above which the mid $39.00 price area remains a several week target. Potentially the mid $55.00 price area is in reach over the next several months.

Bullish Outlook:

The $28.00 price area can likely absorb selling pressure throughout the balance of May. Above which the mid $39.00 price area is the next near term several week target.

A daily settlement above the mid $39.00 price area indicates a good annual low has been made. Then the mid $55.00 price area would be attainable within several more weeks, likely making the high for the remainder of the year.

Bearish Outlook:

A weekly settlement below the $28.00 price area would most likely yield a $12.00 price area retest within several weeks, which would likely bottom out selling pressure for the remainder of the year.

WEEKLY Crude Oil Outlook ( JULY – CLM20 )

The main trend remains bearish according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom from the week-ending May 1.

The main trend will change to bullish on a trade through the nearest swing top at $54.86. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

A trade through $17.27 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and will signal a resumption of the downward trend.

The minor trend is also bearish. A trade through $35.18 will change the minor trend to bullish. This will confirm the shift in near-term momentum. The minor range is $37.64 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $27.46 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $54.86 to $17.27. It’s 50% level at $36.07 is the primary upside target. The weekly gap at $37.64 to $41.88 is another potential resistance zone. The main range is $62.95 to $17.27. It’s retracement zone at $40.11 to $45.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

Weekly Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the July WTI crude oil market for the week-ending May 22 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $27.46.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $27.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the downtrending Gann angle at $28.86. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of $28.86, however, overtaking it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with near-term targets the minor top at $35.18 and the 50% level at $36.07.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $27.46 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a downtrending Gann angle at $24.95. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the market in a bearish position with the first target a minor 50% level at $23.14, followed by the main bottom at $17.27.

Want to learn more about how Hawkeye can help you spot opportunities in the oil market? Tap here to view a no-cost presentation right now!

[sg_popup id=13743]