Apple: A Screaming Buy or an Overripe Fruit Ready To Fall?

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Apple: A Screaming Buy or an Overripe Fruit Ready To Fall?

Last week, Apple reported its cash reserves had grown to $178 billion, due to phenomenal sales (74.5 million) of the latest iPhone 6. This massive cash reserve is larger than the total market value of Pepsi, Disney, or Amazon. They also reported the biggest quarterly profit ever for a public company – $18 billion in net income in the last quarter of 2014.

Because of this, the financial news analysts are virtually tripping over themselves with predictions of Apple’s stock price soaring to $140 and above. Activist investor Carl Icahn, who owned 45 million shares of Apple as of last August, claims that the stock could be worth over $203 per share!

Knowing, as we do, that Volume is the only leading indicator, let’s take a look at what the Hawkeye indicators are telling us about the future of Apple’s stock price.

Let’s begin with the monthly chart below. As you can see, I’ve put two arrows on the chart, one at the top, and the other at the bottom. The arrow at the top is pointing at the Hawkeye High Pivot. And you’ll also notice I’ve draw drawn a line across that point, showing you where the price must close above, by the month, to show it is still in this up trend.

Apple Monthly Chart

At the moment, we see it’s stalling out at that level, which is showing resistance. Now, let’s focus on the second red arrow down below. This is showing there’s declining volume in this up move. So, the Hawkeye indicators are telling us not to expect the explosive move to the upside all the pundits on the TV are talking about. However, if there is a close above the line I’ve drawn at the Hawkeye Pivot point (which is at 120), then all bets are off, and Apple could be off to the races.

Now, let’s look at the weekly chart below. I have drawn a line, to show you where that weekly pivot is holding. You’ll also notice the pivot was just hit (where I’ve placed the cyan arrow). See how this occurred on high volume and that the Hawkeye Volume Radar indicator marked the event with a yellow dot?

Apple Weekly Chart

However, if we look at the range of the bar, there should have been a lot more volume to go into that to push it up through that line resistance. So, yes, there was a lot of good news about their cash reserves , but you can see that the price went up and hit its resistance level and retreated from that line.

Now, let’s look at the daily chart below. Again, you can see the resistance I’ve marked with the line. But, if we look at the volume on the daily chart, you can see that we have a typical topping volume profile, where we have red volume, no demand volume, a little bit of buying volume, and then selling volume. So, all of this is showing that it’s going to be a defining week coming up to get Apple through 120.

Apple Daily Chart

We teach this and many other methods in our live training room held every Wednesday. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

Until next time . .

Good Trading!

Nigel Hawkes

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Trading The British Pound The Hawkeye Way

In today’s issue of our newsletter, I’ll show how the Hawkeye indicators can be used for trading the British pound against the US dollar.

Let’s begin by looking at the monthly chart. As you can see, the monthly trend dots have gone red, as illustrated by the red arrow I’ve placed on the chart. You’ll also note that the volume indicators and the heatmap are all red.

GBPUSD Monthly Chart

Now, let’s look at the last pivot low. That’s indicated by the yellow dot and horizontal line. If prices break below that, it indicates we will be in a serious down trend.

Looking back to May of 2010, we see the previous low was at 14229. So, if this current trend were to close down through the current pivot low, we very well may be headed down towards 14229.

Now, let’s move on to the weekly chart.

GBPUSD Weekly Chart

As you can see, the weekly chart has broken down from where I’ve placed the red arrow. You can see that prices have closed down below the pivot low point.

Also, notice the evenness between the trend dots in this down trend. This indicates there is substantial momentum to the down side.

Finally, on the daily chart, you can see we’ve just now broken down below the Hawkeye pivot low (the yellow dot with the horizontal lines extending out).

GBPUSD Daily Chart

We see that the GBP held prices within the pivot area for a few days. However, on Thursday, the 22nd of January, we saw the price close down under the pivot, and so we’re now in commencement of a re-entry to the downside (You’ll also note that the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator put in an aggressive entry to the downside).

So, the Hawkeye indicators are telling us that it looks like serious weakness for the GPB. I would expect it to continue on down now, and certainly, given all the evidence we see from the Hawkeye indicators, it’s a great shorting opportunity.

But, make sure you do not go long on this if you’re trading the faster time frames. Only trade in the direction of the slower time frames!

So, I hope you’ve enjoyed seeing how we use the Hawkeye Pivots. Understanding price action with the underlying Volume is the true advantage in trading, and the Hawkeye Pivots is a unique tool that helps us put it all together.

We teach this and many other methods in our live training room held every Wednesday. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

Until next time . .

Good Trading!

Nigel Hawkes

[The red arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

Hawkeye Pivots – Trading Crude Oil the Hawkeye Way

In today’s article, I’ll show you how we use the Hawkeye Pivots on crude oil charts to illustrate their value to enhance your trading.

Monthly Chart Analysis

Monthly Crude

If you look at the right side of the monthly chart above, you’ll see there’s a red arrow pointing down. While not part of our software, the red arrow shows the first time price closed under the pivot low extension (that’s the yellow line that’s coming off the last true isolated low).

This breakout was on the 31st of October 2014, and Hawkeye showed the new trend has commenced with red selling Volume, a bright red Heatmap, and declining red Trend dots.

Weekly Chart Analysis

Now, let’s look at the weekly chart.

Crude Weekly

Notice where the red arrow is again. That is where the breakout occurred, when price closed under the last isolated low pivot extension. From there, you can see that the prices are falling and that no pivot has formed all the way down. However, now we are getting to a potential pivot low, and you can see some green buying volume has come in on the weekly chart on the last bar. Keep that in mind as we now move on to the daily chart.

Crude Daily

Here, you can see I have placed a cyan arrow pointing upwards showing us the new pivots and the extension lines (high and low), which are the two yellow lines extending to the right. Notice that the trend dot has gone flat, that the price is going sideways, and that the volume is declining.

(By the way, ignore the current bar, because that was Martin Luther King’s birthday, and the markets were closed at that time.)

Now, notice how on the Roadkill indicator we see two bars of green buying volume coming in. That means, we are hitting a point of congestion on our crude chart. We will only know if that pivot low is taken out if it continues down, and price is at 4455.

Therefore, if we close below the pivot low at 4450, then the downtrend will resume. But, if the pivot high is taken out, which is at 5175, then we will be in a daily uptrend. The bias at the moment is still down, but we are getting congestion bottoms forming, hinting that upwards price action is a possibility.

Conclusion

So, I hope you’ve enjoyed seeing how we use the Hawkeye Pivots. Understanding price action with the underlying Volume is the true advantage in trading. The Hawkeye Pivots is a unique tool that helps us put it all together.

We teach this and many other methods in our live training room held every Wednesday. Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Please contact us at [email protected] for any questions you might have about using Hawkeye Indicators in your trading!

Good Trading!

Nigel Hawkes

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

How To Make HUGE Profits When The Scotland Voting Results Are Announced This Friday

Summary: The GBP may see huge swings this Friday after the result of the Scotland independence vote is announced. Hawkeye Traders will hold two special live trade rooms hosted by our Founder, Nigel Hawkes. We encourage you to attend these FREE live trade rooms on Friday to help you profit from this momentous event, which will certainly move the market dramatically. The first room will open for one hour starting at 0800 UK time (3:00am Eastern). The second room will open for one hour beginning at 1300 UK time 8:00am Eastern).

Click Here To Reserve Your Seat for 0800 UK (3:00am EST)
Click Here To Reserve Your Seat for 1300 UK (8:00am EST)
scotland

Later this week, on Thursday, September 18th, the Scots will vote whether to become independent from the UK. Then on Friday, the results will be announced, and as a result, we are expecting a huge trading opportunity will be available to smart traders.

If Scotland votes for independence, it will have huge ramifications, both socially and financially, to Great Britain.

That’s because Scotland accounts for 8% of the population, and thus, about 8% of the tax revenue. So, if they vote to leave the UK, it will mean a significant financial hit to the UK that will hurt their current efforts to reduce the deficit.

Various economic experts are predicting that if Scotland chooses independence from the UK, it will have an effect of about 10% on the price of the British Pound.

And even if Scotland votes to remain part of the UK, Sterling is currently significantly under-valued and should go back to the 170 mark. (It’s trading at 1.62 at the moment.)

So, either way, a huge swing may happen, and thus, there’s a HUGE opportunity for us to profit.

That’s why I will be holding a special set of FREE trade rooms on Friday, and I want you to attend.

Click Here To Reserve Your Seat for 0800 UK (3:00am EST)

Click Here To Reserve Your Seat for 1300 UK (8:00am EST)

The purpose is to look at the opportunities that are arising in trading the pound.

Now, let’s look at some of the Hawkeye charts to see how things are building up to this momentous trading opportunity.

In the monthly chart, notice where I’ve placed the cyan arrow.

After posting an isolated high (marked with the yellow pivot dot), we see a price drop of several bars. This is very typical. You’ll also notice how prices are finding support at the Hawkeye stop, which are the little green crosses.

And finally, I want you to notice how last month, red selling volume has arrived (as shown by the red bar under the cyan arrow). However, the actual price bar is not showing extreme weakness. I would have expected a wider ranging bar here, pushing down with this fundamental news.

But it has found support where the stops are on the monthly chart.

GBPUSD-Month091514

Next, let’s look at the weekly chart. Notice what happened at the end of the week on Friday. Green volume came in (green bar down below the cyan arrow), and we have 50% of an isolated low here. So, next week, if prices go up, you will have an isolated lower there, which will in turn, will tend to push this market up.

GBPUSD-Week091514

Now, let’s look at the Daily, and as you can see, we have a wonderful little doji (where the cyan arrow is) which is pushing prices up. And you can also see how the trend dots are starting to go flat, which means, we have entered congestion.

GBPUSD-Day091514

Next, let’s take a look at the 720 minute. You’ll notice how we have a wide bar. But we also have green volume coming in where my cyan arrow is (pushing this market up). So, we are in congestion.

GBPUSD-720M091514

Finally, if we look at the weekly chart of Fatman, we can see that the orange/brown line, which is the Pound, has reached its over-sold zone (as marked with the cyan arrow).
GBPUSD-Fatman091514
And you can see that the US dollar (the cyan line marked with the red arrow) has also reached its over-bought zone.

Both are indicating that this trend run has come to its congestion area, and it should start turning around and start going up.

You can also see that the other currencies, particularly the magenta line (Yen) is starting to decline as well.

So, that could be a very good pair as soon as the British Pound starts to rally . . . to look at the Pound/Yen as a pair to trade.

All in all, it’s showing us that the market move to the downside has taken place.

The market is going to sit back and congest until the news comes out this Friday.

So, please come to our FREE live trading rooms this coming Friday.

I’ll see you there!

Nigel

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

The Emini’s Recent Drop? Here’s What Hawkeye Foresees!

Recently, there was a big downward move in the Emini.

So, in today’s article, I want to examine that move using my Hawkeye Volume trading methods.

First, let’s have a look at the monthly chart.

ES monthly chat

If you look at the red arrow, you can see that it is 50% of a Hawkeye isolated high.

If this month’s bar does not make a higher high than July, we will see a yellow Hawkeye Pivot dot appear.

That means we should expect a minimum of three (and possibly up to five) months of bars back down against this uptrend.

Also, you can see that we don’t have much volume, indicating there isn’t much buying going on.

Next, let’s have a look at the weekly chart, which is showing us something quite interesting.

EMini Weekly (1)

If we have a look at the arrow at the bottom of the chart on the Hawkeye Volume, you see it shows us that last week, there was red selling that went on into the market.

Now, the two red arrows at the top of the market show a double top, along with the two yellow Hawkeye Pivot dots.

If you draw a line across the high of the first Pivot, you will see there was resistance that also stopped right on the second Pivot dot.

So, it’s clear that the market is rolling over.

This is also confirmed in that we have red Volume, and the weekly Trend dot has gone flat.

Lastly, let’s go have a look at the daily, because this really does tell us the full picture.

EMini Daily (1)

Here, on the daily chart, notice the red arrow on the bottom, which is showing us the volume.

Four days before the sell-off (the magenta wide bar), Hawkeye Volume was telling us that the professionals were getting short in this market.

Also, notice our two arrows at the top, which are showing us the yellow Hawkeye Pivot dots.

You can see that the second red arrow down is lower than the first. This is also indicating that this market is in decline and will be sold off.

Then, we have a yellow dot, which is the Hawkeye Pivot right at the bottom, and so we’re expecting a three bar reversal off of this.

However, as I write this to you, (which is on August 5th) you can see that the market is coming down.

And, if it continues coming down during the day, another yellow dot will be placed on yesterday’s bar, or it will become a phantom.

Either way we look at it, this market is showing extreme weakness at the moment, and certainly, you should not be buying any stocks at the moment. You should be tightening your stop losses, because this could be a major move coming into the summer period.

So, be aware of what is happening. Keep your eyes peeled, and make sure you follow the Hawkeye trading rules.

Good Trading!

Nigel Hawkes

[The red arrows are for illustration only and do not form part of the software]

How To “Walk Down The Stairs” In Your Trading

In today’s article, I will discuss an aspect of trading that occurs fairly regularly.

I call it “Walking Down The Stairs.”

To illustrate, please notice the three attached charts. They are the weekly, daily, and 720 minute charts for EURGBP.

Also, before we dive into this, I want to emphasize that what I’m showing you applies to any timeframe you happen to be trading.

Weekly EURGBPAs you can see on both the weekly (above) and daily (below) charts, the Hawkeye stops are indicated with a cyan arrow.

Daily EURGBP

Now, let’s consider the faster timeframe, which is the 720 minute chart below.

Notice the red arrows. I call this “Walking Down The Stairs,” because of how the stop and crash barrier indicators look like a staircase. Of course, the principle of “walking up the stairs” also applies when trading in an uptrend.

720 EURGBP

Anytime you’re trading on a triple timeframe, the fastest timeframe will exhibit this “stair-case” profile.

Also, notice how as you go from one red arrow to another, there’s a period where it all goes flat.

This is what I call the landing.

Then from there, notice how it continues stepping down to another landing, then a third, a fourth, a fifth, and a sixth, etc.

One of the biggest weaknesses I see in many traders is they can’t hold trends.

However, in order to become a consistently profitable trader, you’ll need to be able to identify this frequently occurring chart behavior and most importantly, learn to trade through it.

Being able to identify where the landings are will really help you, because by doing so, you will see how the market steps down in harmony with the two other timeframes.

So, by learning how to quickly identify this behavior and trade through it, you can reap larger profits throughout the rest of your trading career.

Good trading!

Nigel Hawkes

 [The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

 

How to AGRESSIVELY Trade Forex

In this week’s edition of our newsletter, I want to show you how to aggressively trade Forex with a 20 pip profit target. This is a very reasonable target that occurs most days, day in and day out.

The first thing I do is to go to ForexTicket.com to review which pairs are currently showing the most volatility.

One of my preferred pairs for scalping is the British Pound / Yen (GBPJPY), especially at the 7:30am London open.

By using my Hawkeye Gearbox indicator I can easily determine that currently, the best two time-frames to use are 162 ticks and 384 ticks.

So, once I have these charts up, I add two of my indicators: Hawkeye Volume and Trend.

Hawkeye Volume provides the green, red, and white bars on the price, showing me whether the market is being accumulated, distributed, or if there is no demand at all.

This is an amazing leading indicator which literally signals a price movement prior to it happening!

The Hawkeye Trend indicator are the dots which give me a clear indication of the market trend and momentum.

So, let’s start.

Fatman GBPJPYFirst of all, I take a look at my Hawkeye Fatman indicator, displaying the Pound and the Yen at the same time, 7:30am in London.

You can see they are in opposition to each other.

The Pound being brown, and the magenta being the Yen.

So, this is showing me straight-away that the Yen is showing strength against the Pound.

I then go over to my charts and have a look at the double-time volume.

Double-time volume is on the bottom of the chart below with the cyan arrow.

gbpjpy yellow

And you can see on the 384 tick chart (above), the double timeframe is showing me there’s red selling going on, and on the 162 tick chart (below), you can see that it’s neutral, which is just fine.

gbpjpy blue

It’s telling me that there is no defined direction yet on the double time frame.

However, if you look at the Hawkeye Volume on the price, you can see that it has already turned red.

But, the most important thing I’m looking at is the actual trend dot, and you can see that the trend dots, both on the 384 and the 162 chart have started to roll over and point downwards.

So, with my volumes leading the way, showing me the bias is to the downside, I enter a short based on the 162 tick chart with confirmation from the 384 tick chart.

And, as you can see, by putting the Hawkeye Grabba on (the horizontal lines), it comes down to the 173.19 area, hits 20 pips, and I take my profit.

And that’s it!

I’m done for the day with my scalp.

Now, one of the things I try to teach is that it is far better to put a larger position on and go for a shorter trend run then it is to put a smaller position on and go for a longer trend run.

And, if you can hit 20 pips, day in and day out, even on one contract, that will give you the confidence to scale up to 3, 5, 8, 10, or more.

Then, you’re starting to make real capital wealth.

One other thing I would like to emphasize is how I manage these scalps.

Once prices have moved 10 ticks, I move my stop up to break even. Also, once prices get close to 20 ticks, I move my stop to lock in 10 ticks of profit. That way, I’m always taking money out of the market.

So, I hope you have enjoyed this brief example of how to scalp aggressively.

Nigel Hawkes

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

 

Want to profit from Volume? Here’s how.

Apple is the most widely held stock in America.

If you look at the daily chart, you can see it has been in an uptrend for quite some time. There was a brief pull-back in late June, and then, it continued upwards on declining volume.

Apple Daily

However, notice throughout the pullback, it didn’t break the Stop or Crash Barrier indicators (indicated by the green crosses and the solid green line).

Now, notice the point where I’ve marked the chart with a cyan-colored arrow. You can see that when prices began to rise, volume was increasing and how it pushed the market up.

Next, see the large magenta-colored bar on July 8th? That tells us the market will most likely go into a pause (in fact, this Widebar indicator is accurate about 80% of the time).

As I write this weekly newsletter (on Monday, July 14th), you can see that the current bar is pushing out above the magenta bar.

But please remember, if you’re trading is based on daily and weekly charts, I don’t consider there to be a breakout until ALL of the current bar is above the support or resistance.

At the moment, the current bar is straddling the resistance, and you can see this if you draw a line off the top of the magenta bar.

So, I would still say that this market is currently in congestion on neutral volume.

Now, if we look at the weekly chart, you can see that Apple is in a power trend up.

Apple Weekly Chart

And, you’ll also notice, this is happening on green buying volume, with the Hawkeye trend dots moving up in a very orderly manner.

So, all of this points to a market that is being accumulated.

But of course, if you look at lower time-frames (like the daily), you’ll see the whip-lash of the vibration, but it holds firm in this trend.

It appears that this trend will continue its way up, providing the overall index goes up.

So, what is the Hawkeye perspective on Apple?

Apple is in an uptrend, it’s in congestion on the daily, working its way out of the wide bar range, which occurred on the 8th of July, but is in total harmony with the weekly chart.

Good trading!

Nigel Hawkes

 

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

 

Hawkeye Identifies HUGE Market Move!

We are looking for huge moves in grains now. Look at the following charts of the grains. Wheat is at multi-year lows, along with Corn. Do remember, the PEDv outbreak has killed millions of US hogs and they eat corn, so there is lots of supply

Chart 1 –  Wheat Daily Chart

wheat daily

Take a look at the Wheat Daily Chart above. Of course Hawkeye volume picked up the professional selling (indicated by the red arrow).

Chart 2 – Wheat Weekly Chart

wheat weekly

This selling is confirmed by the volume chart on the Weekly Wheat Chart (indicated by the red arrow). What trends!

[The red arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

Hawkeye Perspective

Have a look as well at Hawkeye on the Soy complex. This year has been a near perfect growing season – ample rains and sun.  You will see that Hawkeye Volume is very bearish –  as it is of all the grain complex.

As a note: feeder cattle and live cattle have been a belter of a trend. Be careful, it looks like tops are being put in.

Emini traders get a Kiss!

It is always so hard to know each day the market price action, and that is where Hawkeye gives you the result.

Chart 1 – Hawkeye Kiss

kiss

The Hawkeye Kiss is set to 3 minutes and is a graphical representation of ALL advancing/declining issues on the New York Stock Exchange, Russell and NASDAQ. The green and red lines are just an inverse of each other, so when the green line is rising you know the bias of the market is that there are more stocks being bought than sold. When they are tight together around the centre line (like in this example and indicated by the red and cyan arrows) you know that the market lacks direction. Hence, small trend runs are to be expected.

Chart 2 – Hawkeye Gear Box

gear box

This is the Hawkeye Gearbox and shows you day in, day out, the correct tick speeds to which to set your charts so that you are in harmony with the daily market. These are the numbers with different colors on the vertical right axis. Gearbox is the world’s only tick speed optimizer and uses a complex algorithm to calculate the optimal tick speed of the market for the day ahead. Tick data is most accurate as it represents each change in price irrespective of time. As a result tick charts represent the purest form of data and are the true heartbeat of the market, and YES the Hawkeye Volume algorithm  interprets tick volume as well as time volume. If we see the market range is tight, we have a choice of speeds to trade from. That is the beauty of the GearBox.

[The red and cyan arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

Hawkeye Perspective
So, when the Hawkeye Kiss is in a tight range, we are only expecting short trend runs, so we look at the cyan tick speed and just scalp 1-2 full points (ES).

Don’t miss the Gold trade

A few weeks ago I told you that it was looking like a critical few weeks for gold trading. I showed you how Hawkeye showed the weakness in the current downtrend, and I showed you what to look for as the first signs of a new up trend. The weekly Hawkeye stops held (support) and now Hawkeye Volume is showing that buyers are returning to the table, accumulating Gold at these low prices. Hawkeye showed you where the smart money was!

Chart 1 – Gold Daily Chart

Gold 180614

Hawkeye Gold is now going through accumulation (indicated by the red arrow). Do wait until there is break out on high volume through the high that occurred 2 days ago. This could be the commencement of a major trend, so a great deal of patience is in order here.

Chart 2 – GDX Daily Chart

GDX

GDX is an ETF of gold mining stocks, a forerunner of the gold price. Accumulation has taken place (indicated by the red line) and price move has commenced, especially when the last Hawkeye pivot (the yellow dot on the price to the left) is taken out.

[The red arrow and line are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

Hawkeye Perspective
Gold is now at a pivotal point, with the bias to the upside. Both Hawkeye pivots to the left on Gold and GDX have to be taken out to confirm the uptrend.

 

 

Sustainable trading results? – Simple…stop losing your profits!

Before we start, it is worth emphasizing that although the examples used here are options the lessons are VITAL to all trading vehicles.

After posting an ROI of 253% Hawkeye Options directional portfolio (Barracuda), my inbox was brimming with questions regard how this was possible in ONLY 8 MONTHS. For this week’s newsletter,  I was asked to share some of the key tactics that may offer this sort of return. Of course this is but one of the methods used when we trade risk but we feel it is up there as one of the more important.

What really creates a sustainable return?

The aim of using Hawkeye to enter is to increase the likelihood of a high probability trade, meaning of course that we are trying to stack the odds in our favour of a move in our desired direction. Entry is the ‘sexy’ bit, the one all new investors focus upon, and win/loss ratios seem so very important.

Would you be surprised to know that the 253% was generated with a win/loss ratio a little over 1:1!

So how is this sort of return possible? Simple, it all comes down to exit!

There are two KEY POINTS:

  1. Even if our trade goes against us the fact we have entered a high probability trade usually means that even a one or two day move up trails the stop and reduces any potential loss even more so than our initial stop.
  2. We recognise the changing risk of a trade and act accordingly retaining profits.

What this has meant is that return exists because if we total the average win of ALL the trades that went for us it shows an average profit of 65%. If we did the same to our losing trades the average is -22%.

THIS is the KEY. This ratio of 2.97:1 average winning trade versus losing trade IS the major ratio you should be viewing. To ram the point home…if this is your profile it means that your win/loss ratio can drop as low as 1:3 and you can still make money!

Let us focus on the second of these two.

So how does risk change during the life of a trade?

Often on entering a trade, particularly with leveraged vehicles such as Fx, Futures or Options, we will set a profit target. This may be based on a previously established resistance (if long) or support level (if short) often identified by pivot highs or lows. As an alternative, it is not uncommon to set an x3ATR as a potential ‘line in the sand’ to exit. So we have based our decision on something solid that Hawkeye has told us.

Of course, we have a stop to cover us to the downside, so a usual profile on entry may be ATR x3 as a potential reward and 1.5 ATR as risk.

The issue we wish to highlight is when the stock approaches this profit target which you have set using your Hawkeye indicators.

See below an F (Ford) with a long trade (bought call).

Ford (Options) 2

With a profit target of $17.09 in the last hour on the underlying based on a 3xATR and with the stop now trailed to 1xATR, 3 sessions ago we have an upside of only an additional 5c/share and a downside at our stop of 30c/share.

The reward/risk ration profile in terms of our trading idea, has totally changed from a 3 to 1.5 (based on our initial ATR levels), to approx. 1:6.

We have two choices here; we ride it out and see if our profit target is triggered and potentially accept the new and certainly not improved reward/risk profile; or we take it off the table and retain the profit in the position 55% ROI on our original investment.

What can happen if we hang out for that extra cent or two? See what happened next. We would now be in a loss situation!

Look at a GLD (gold ETF) chart with a short (Put option) entry below.

GLD (Options) 2

In this case our 3xATR was not breached and so there is every chance we would still be in this trade and would have turned a healthy options profit into a just over breakeven with our close above 1xATR. In options terms we have given away a 50%+ gain for a 10% (excluding any brokerage costs)

Perhaps there is a clue to guide action with the two charts above, that may help guide your decisions as to whether to accept the changed profile and accept the increased risk to reward, or take the money off the table.

The selling volume that came in with GLD as the profit target was approaching (there is that leading indicator again!) whereas with F the following day when the 3xATR level had been tested and failed, the following day you would have seen that pivot high and could have been your clue to exit.

Time to review your trading?

So, consider your exits, recognise the changing risk of a trade while you are in it and test potential action against your trading system at the moment.

Also to finish……

  1. If a series on the other issues surrounding risk (there are at least 8 aspects of risk which may not be part of your thinking) would be of interest to you then email to [email protected] and we will have discussions about how we can roll this out.
  2. Feel free to ask questions/comment and of course if you want to look closer at what we do at Hawkeye Options then go to www.hawkeyeoptions.com where there is the opportunity to see the all our trades in action in the trade alert/portfolio service for your continued education.

A Critical Few Weeks for Gold

The following information arrived on my desk from a well respected source:

“Gold and silver turned in another poor monthly performance with losses of 4.5% and 4% respectively.  Investors are wary of getting long the metals thanks to strong US economic data and lack of inflation.  However, it’s important to point out that both metals are trading at price levels that make it very hard for miners to stay in business.”

But let’s look at Hawkeye Gold.

Chart 1 – Gold Monthly

gold monthly

The Gold Monthly Chart is in a down trend bias but in congestion.

Chart 2 – Gold Weekly

gold weekly

On the Gold Weekly Chart we are at a critical point. The price is hitting against the weekly stops which act as a support (indicated by the red arrow). Remember what W.D.Gann said – price usually goes through support resistance at the 4th attempt, if it does not hold it will be the commencement of weekly down trend.

Chart 3 – Gold Daily

gold daily

The Gold Daily Chart is in a down trend. However, there are narrow bars on declining volume (indicated by the red arrow). This is usually the first sign of congestion and accumulation prior to a new up trend.

[Please note the red arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

Hawkeye Perspective

We are at the crossroads here. The Gold price needs to hold on the Weekly Chart, and then you will see the Hawkeye Volume indicator start showing some green volume bars as the majors start accumulating Gold at these low prices, before the trend runs up. But wait – Hawkeye will show where the smart money is.

How to Make More Out of the Market

The Hawkeye Adds is a fabulous cash machine. It tells you visually when and where to add additional contracts, once you are in a trending market.

Chart 1 – S&P Emini (3144 Ticks) Fast Chart

emini adds

There was a powerful downtrend on Tuesday 5/20/14. You can see it on both the fast chart above and the slow chart below. How? Just take a look at the trend dots pushing down. Hawkeye Adds tells us to add contracts to our position (shown by the yellow numbers above). 1 is our first entry, then Adds tells us to add 3 more contracts as the trend continues. Finally it tells us to add a further 2 contracts. BUT remember our intraday rule: only add to your position once.

Chart 2 – S&P Emini (6288 Ticks) Slow Chart

emini slow

[Please note the red arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

Hawkeye Perspective
Knowing when you are in a strong trend resulted in taking 19.5 big points from the Emini instead of 7.50 points using just one contract.

Major clue the world market is on the up

This week I want to show you how copper is demonstrating that the world is coming out of recession and how this vital component in all building, electrical and industrial production is being bought.

Chart 1 – Copper Weekly Chart

copper weekly

Since March 21, copper has been in accumulation mode. You can see 8 weeks of buying as major buyers step in and commence accumulation (indicated by the cyan arrow up and the green Hawkeye Volume bars).

Chart 2 – Copper Daily Chart

copper daily

On April 24, Hawkeye gives an entry signal (indicated by the cyan arrow). All trends and volume now in place – this market has been accumulated. The next phase is a price move up until demand is fulfilled.

[Please note the cyan arrows are for illustration only and are not part of the software]

Hawkeye Perspective
All conditions are in place for copper to work its way higher. Remember, trends rarely go straight up, but zig-zag to higher price levels. But there is little downside risk at the moment.

Don’t get sucked into this market. YET.

The overall market looks to be at a decision point lately. This can make for some large swings and potential false breakouts. Wait for clear signals from Hawkeye before making your move.

Chart 1 - S&P 500 Emini (ES) Daily

S&P emini daily(1)

The index future (ES) is still in distribution volume mode with up price moves on declining volume. The price will now test the Hawkeye stops (the red crosses below the price), but will need a large volume day to confirm. Don't get suckered into any break on light volume.

Chart 2 - S&P 500 Emini (ES) Weekly

emini weekly(1)

The dotted line drawn off the last Hawkeye pivot is also at the same level as the stops on the daily chart. So, a lot to get through, especially as the weekly chart has selling volume (indicated by the red arrow).

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Be very careful. The price will be tested as markets have to find their support and resistance levels. But if there is high volume with this test, wait first to pull back i.e. buying volume (green) followed by some selling volume (red) to say the markets have returned to uptrend.

The ‘Its easy to trade’ gang are out in force..a must see event, and one to watch

This week Mike Smith reports direct from the Hawkeye Options desk.

Here we go again – out from the woodwork they come…
Its earnings season and so out pop the latest plethora of NEW; INNOVATIVE; EASY; PROVEN etc. etc. headlines about a strategy that has been around as long as options have been in existence.

They say straddles and strangles are the way to trade a high volatility market (by definition it isn’t a volatile market by the way – just look at where the VIX is – there is a difference between choppy and volatile – a later discussion perhaps).

They will promise that this new (lol!) innovative strategy, where you buy a call and a put, an each way bet if you like…as THE ONLY way to make money in this market

(AND of course Barracuda at 191% end of day last session in less than 7 months is evidence that this is nonsense).

They will fail to mention that options prices go up pre-earnings – a little thing called implied volatility – (which is in simple terms, a forward looking measure based on how likely something could move from its current position – in an individual option position there is NO time when this is at a temporary high just before an earnings report). So you can pay over the odds for a call and pay over the odds for a put, and the underlying has got to make a massive movement for you just to break even.

Perhaps we will run a session on this, as there are ways to overcome such issues, but we have other fish to fry right now…just be aware.

A happier note…
Onto the happy stuff. As we are in week 1 of earnings season, I have put a blog post up at HawkeyeOptions.com that may be interesting. This explores the reasons why the pessimism pre-earnings (as seen in the recent market pullback) may lead to a continuation of the bull market we are still in (see the weekly trend in the SPY). You can read more here.

And after earnings..?
So, we are in a new quarter and as usual I am going to run a FREE open session, which looks into the crystal ball (which has been on the button the last 6 quarters these have been running).

Where you will hear

  • Our predictions for US and global equity markets this quarter.
  • Which strategies may work and which to avoid (as they are likely to rip away huge chunks of your capital).
  • The 5 things you MUST monitor this quarter to ensure you are at the front of the pack when things are likely to change.
  • Our predicted date for the next market correction and the catalyst that may drive it.
  • Where next for precious metals (and this may surprise you)?
  • And we will be revealing 4 stocks that are most likely to outperform the market between now and the end of June.

Although with an equities/options/ETF bias, whatever you trade this is ESSENTIAL information. You can register here.

This is simply a service we offer to all those who have expressed an interest in what we do and is a NO SELL zone session.

Feel free to share this link with others as it IS an open session.

And finally..

Watch YAHOO…yesterday’s earnings attracted some massive buying interest in after hours trading.

As always…trade safe and learn with passion.

Mike Smith

Know Pivots. Nail the Market.

I want to show you how to use Hawkeye Pivots to manage congestion. The power of Hawkeye pivots and phantom pivots are shown here on the Emini.

Chart - Emini Daily

emini 040914

The cyan arrow is where I sent out a danger call on the Emini as there is no demand volume (white volume bar). This also came in with the market as per "6 Ways a Market Moves" going into congestion. So what do we do?

Correct! We look for the last Hawkeye pivot or phantom pivot high. This occurred on the first red down arrow, from where we draw the yellow dotted line. Now let's move forward. Look at the volume profile - its choppy, which is consistent with a market in distribution after an uptrend.

Understanding congestion exit is so important, as we teach in our seminars. Support and resistance lines are not rods of steel but elastic bands. See the second red down arrow, there is a close above the dotted line but the bar and subsequent bars all straddle the dotted line. So no breakout.

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Learn to manage congestion using Hawkeye Pivots. When trading longer time frames always make sure that no part of the bar is straddling the support or resistance line. As I write, a pivot low could be forming on the daily, confirming more sideways congestion.

Start nailing Forex trading now!

I keep telling you, trading is just like hunting - patience is required for the perfect shot. Lets take a look at what this means on the AUDUSD. Ready, aim, trade!

Chart - AUDUSD

fx

The unique Hawkeye GearBox has given tick speeds of 640, 320, and 160 for today (Tuesday). GearBox is yellow telling us to trade in harmony the 320 and 640 charts.

Look where the red arrow is on the 320 chart. All is in place to short. The red arrow on the 640 chart shows dark red Volume and HeatMap (the indicator at the bottom of the chart). Little risk here to take the trade.

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Patience pays off. Wait for everything to line up for a low risk entry. Pull the trigger. BANG! 40+ pips.

Intraday Traders – this is a world first!

Traders, I must try and enthuse you to use Hawkeye's GearBox and GearChanger, part of the Hawkeye Gear Module. It's a pivotal moment in your trading career that will change how you perceive charts for ever. It produces an optimized tick speed based on current volatility and the expansion of volume.

Introduction

Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger work on ALL markets but in this example let's use the S&P E-mini. Each day Hawkeye GearBox gives us a number of optimum tick speeds to trade for that day. As seen at the bottom of Chart 3, Hawkeye GearChanger is yellow all day telling us that the market is trading at normal speed. So in this example for normal speeds GearBox is telling us to trade the 3752 tick and 7504 tick charts. These are the charts I have set up in Charts 1 and 2 below.

Charts 1 & 2 - S&P E-mini

emini gear

 The red arrows in the charts above indicate where both time frames are in harmony, showing a low risk short entry producing a plus 9 full point move. The cyan up arrows show long entry holding to end of day producing a 3 plus full point move.

Chart 3 - Hawkeye KISS

kiss emini

This chart shows the Hawkeye KISS set to 3 minutes. The red arrow shows that the market momentum of advance/declining stock issues is slowing and the market enters congestion. The cyan arrow shows that stocks are advancing. Look at the rising green line in KISS. This prepares us for the entry on Charts 1 and 2.

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Understanding the power of the Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger seriously will change your trading forever. For more information, look up the Hawkeye Gear Module on our website.

Hawkeye teaches you to Swing!

Apple, the most highly held stock in the USA, is great to swing trade. Let Hawkeye teach you how to swing trade the $AAPL.

Chart 1 - Apple 60-Minute Chart

appl 60 mins

This 60 minute chart shows that the market has entered congestion and the unique Hawkeye Volume indicator is showing accumulation volume (as indicated by the cyan arrow).

Chart 2 - Apple 30-Minute Chart

appl 30

Although the 30-minute trend has been up there is no volume support and the 60-minute trend is flat (as indicated by the cyan arrow). So although the bias was to the long side, volume was not pushing up prices but showing accumulation.

Note: the cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective - Swing Trade

Market bias is to the long side, as shown by the 30 and 60 minute charts, where both are showing accumulation. Even the 120 minute chart (not shown) is showing accumulation. But patience is required - a break above the last pivot high on the 30-minute chart (indicated by the yellow dot) at 530 will show the commencement of the swing trade. So, did we show you how to swing trade with Apple?

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

The US Dollar at critical turning point.

To trade the US Dollar, you need to know this. Last week Hawkeye showed no-demand volume, the first sign of distribution in an uptrend. Since then the market price profile has confirmed this setup with a trend pause and no-demand volume. This is a classic set up working through. Today let's looks at how low volume can prefigure an accumulation phase.

Daily US Dollar Index (DX) Chart

us dollar

The US Dollar Index has been in downtrend for some weeks but we are at a pivotal point on the daily chart. Look at where the great short came in on 14 February (indicated by the red arrow) and is showing 80+ pips. However, look at the low volume under the cyan arrow. Remember this is the first sign in your forensic analysis that the market should be commencing its accumulation phase prior to uptrend. So, if you are short pull your stops in.

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

If the close by the end of week is under the dotted line on increasing volume all bets are off and the downtrend will continue. Learn to trade the US Dollar using Hawkeye indicators.

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Be Very, Very Careful!

Last week, we showed how Hawkeye GearBox identified the optimal tick speed to use on Emini futures. Today, let's look at how Hawkeye signals that danger is in the air. Be very, very careful!

Chart 1 - Weekly Emini

This weekly Emini chart illustrates just how Hawkeye called the market beautifully off the weekly volume Roadkill indicator with the large cyan dot (indicated by the cyan arrow). There is a weekly trend run from November 1 2013 with an entry price of 1431 closing today +441 full points on just one contract or +1764 points by using the profit accelerator (Hawkeye) that would multiply profits by a factor of 4!

emini weekly

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chart 2 - Daily Emini

With the weekly in uptrend you could only take long trades on the daily chart. If you were aggressive you could take shorts but with a profit target only disregarding trend runs. BUT WHERE ARE WE NOW? DANGER, YES DANGER. Hawkeye went long on February 14 2014 (indicated by the cyan arrow) and even with yesterday's sell off due to Ukraine the market has gapped up into new highs on declining volume. The unique Hawkeye volume algorithm has shown (as I write on  March 3 2014) it's a no demand bar, so we have a gap up into new highs on no demand. DANGER - tighten up stops and see if distributing volume now comes in.

emini daily

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Wait and tighten up stops and see if distributing volume now comes in. The party may be over, so be very, very careful!

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

How to pick the right tick speed to optimize your chance of emini profit.

Last week, we showed how Hawkeye Volume identifies volume accumulation prior to the explosive breakouts in sugar and coffee. Today, let's look at how Hawkeye GearBox and gives you the correct tick speed to trade with every day. We will show you how using the Emini futures market as an example.

From Chart 1 below, we see the values that the Hawkeye GearBox calculates everyday, showing you the correct tick speed to trade the Emini. There are 4 speeds calculated, and 3 optimal speeds we use to trade in harmony with the markets, as per the Hawkeye Methodology. (see red arrows)

gear box and gear changer

Chart 1 - GearBox and GearChanger on the ES emini.

At the bottom of Chart 1 is the Hawkeye GearChanger. The GearChanger shows you the correct market speed at any point during the day. It shows you which tick speed based on color, is your leading chart to trade from (red arrow). So, when the GearChanger changes color, say to blue, you know to trade off the appropriate Blue tick speed indicated by the GearBox value for Blue.

From the ES 1540 tick Chart 2 below, the Hawkeye GearChanger shows that the optimal speed to trade is the blue (fast) timeframe. The first red arrow shows where Hawkeye identified a short setup condition. The cyan arrow shows where Hawkeye identified a long setup. As you can see, price went up 5 ATR Levels (averate true range - shown by the Hawkeye Levels ATR indicator), and put in a Pivot High (yellow dot).

emini tick

Chart 2 - ES Emini Futures Contract

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

The Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger give you the daily tick speeds optimized for the current market activity. This is a HUGE advantage! This indicator works on all instruments: Forex, stocks, commodoties, ETFs, and index futures. Trade in harmony with the markets with the Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger.

Hawkeye Identifies Two Explosive Commodities

Over the previous weeks, Hawkeye has identified great trading opportunities in Stocks, Forex, Futures and Commodities. Today, we want to look specifically at the Coffee and Sugar futures markets, with a particular focus on how Hawkeye Volume shows identifies volume accumulation prior to the explosive breakouts in both of these markets.

From Chart 1 below, just look at the power of accumulating volume and the price breakout. The first two cyan arrows (drawn for illustration only) are showing accumulating volume. The third cyan arrow shows volume absorption, and the explosive breakout to the upside.

Coffee Daily

Chart 1 - Coffee Daily

From the Sugar Daily Chart 2 below, we see the same phase of the market as coffee showed prior to its price move. Both cyan arrows show volume accumulation. Wait for the Sugar Weekly chart to confirm a price move with green (buying) volume and the heatmap turning dark or bright green.

Sugar Daily

Chart 2 - Sugar Daily

Note: the cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Accumulation volume is a great sign of future price action. The Hawkeye Volume indicator shows this with great accuracy. See how Hawkeye Volume indicates a break-out to the upside. As we stated here last week, this market is providing a great trading opportunity. Patience has it's reward.

Learn How Hawkeye Volume and Trend Show End of Trend Run (Not a New Entry)

Over the previous weeks, we have produced information that identifies great trading opportunities in Stocks, Forex, Futures and Commodities. Today, we want to look specifically at the Sugar (SB) futures market, with a particular focus on how Hawkeye Volume and Trend shows the end of a trend run, but not necessarily a new entry.

Chart 1 - Daily

This Sugar daily chart shows an extended daily trend down. Then we get stopping Volume coming in (indicated by 2 red dots on the Volume under the cyan arrow), pushing the market up.

sugar daily

Chart 2 - Weekly/Monthly

Both these Sugar charts (weekly and monthly) are in down trends (indicated by the red arrows). This prevents a long entry on the daily chart. However "6 Ways a Market Moves" shows a weekly congestion entry.

sugar  weekly monthly

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

The market looks like its moving into volume accumulation mode as it bottoms on the weekly chart. This could lead to a congestion entry. Wait and see how Hawkeye Volume indicates either a break-out to the upside or a reversal into the monthly downtrend. This market will provide a great trading opportunity soon. Have patience.

Hawkeye Shows One Great Stock.

The markets are correcting and the Dow is in daily and weekly downtrends. The ES is also in a daily downtrend but the weekly charts show congestion. Weak stocks are tumbling. This is the time for stocks that are strong, as they will probably get stronger when the market returns to an uptrend.

Lets look at Facebook as an example.

Chart 1 - Daily

This daily NASDAQ chart shows a new volume buy entry with accumulating volume (indicated by the red arrow).

facebook daily

Chart 2 - Weekly

This weekly NASDAQ chart shows a wide magenta bar indicating twice average true range (indicated by the red arrow). Normally the price will consolidate here and then push up through the high of the wide bar.

facebook weekly

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

When prices close higher than the wide bar on the weekly this will indicate strength and an entry to the long side. Warning: if the indices are still falling wait until they turn.  You are trading risk so you need to wait for a low risk entry. NASDAQ rising and Facebook rising – a potentially great trade!

Hawkeye Volume Told You 10 Days Before the Market Sold Off

The Dow (YM) is a classic example of selling distribution volume.

Chart 1 Daily

This shows 10 days of selling volume occurring at the top of the uptrend (indicated by the red arrows), with the Hawkeye trend going white indicating no momentum.

 

dow daily

Chart 2 Weekly

This shows three weeks of neutral volume (indicated by the red arrow) with a Hawkeye pivot (red arrows) to the left so we expect a 3,5,7 bar reversal.

dow  weekly

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software

Hawkeye Perspective

Until 15,640 is broken on close this is just a pull back in uptrend. If that price level is broken a new weekly downtrend will be in place.

 

 

Hawkeye Knows Where the Dollar Should Go

The dollar index is showing volume accumulation and prices should start to rise testing 81.72 again.

Chart 1: Daily

The cyan arrows show attendant volume coming into the market. All Hawkeye indicators are in up trend mode.

dolaar index daily

Chart 2 Weekly 

Weekly volume gone from neutral to positive after low volume, again confirming accumulation (cyan arrow).

dollar index weekly

Hawkeye Perspective 

Accumulation is now taking place biased to the upside and prices should start to reflect the commencement of trends on both weekly and daily in the coming weeks.

 

See Stopping Volume in Action

The silver market has fallen over 30 dollars since the high of 50 dollars and has been making lower highs and lower lows since May of 2011. However the weekly ranges have been getting smaller and smaller. There is now attendant volume i.e. accumulation volume on the daily chart (see cyan arrow) and also on the weekly chart (see cyan arrow).

silver daily

 

silver weekly

Hawkeye perspective
This is showing classic stopping volume in the down trend and is the precursor of an up move.

 

In FOREX, the Fatman is Boss! It Makes Money.

I really want you to look closely at this 5 minute $USDJPY chart.

$USDJPY 5 Minute Chart
USDJPY 5 Minute Chart

Looking at the Hawkeye Fatman, the colored spaghetti on the left-hand side of the chart, each colored line represents a single currency… the first cyan arrow is showing that the cyan line (USD) has started to rise. The magenta line (JPY) just to the left is bending down showing weakness. So the Hawkeye Fatman has identified the USDJPY as the pair to trade.

Now let’s look at the chart on the right-hand side, the USDJPY 5 minute. The first cyan arrow shows where there is a Hawkeye Roadkill dot, the small cyan dot at the commencement of the London session. This confirms exactly what the Fatman is telling you… USD strength, and JPY weakness. This is the point to enter long the USDJPY.

Now, let’s move back to the Fatman and look at the first red arrow down, that also coincides with the red arrow down on the price chart, telling you that the US dollar is starting to get weak. However, the Hawkeye Trend indicator shows the trend is still in tact as price rides through this congestion, and as shown with the final cyan arrow, both on the Fatman and on the price chart, the Trend has taken you through congestion and taken you up and further 40 pips than if you had exited too early.

The Hawkeye Perspective

This is a classic example of the power of Hawkeye Trend and Hawkeye Fatman. Let us teach you how to use these indicators to enhance your wealth.

Look at this Consolidation Volume!

Sugar (SB) is starting to show signs of strength. Last Friday’s volume was the highest volume since June of this year.

When you get this strong volume on large up-moves, it is a very positive sign of strength, and could well be the commencement of an uptrend. But, you have to be patient. Looking the the chart below, you can see that there is resistance at $17.50, where the yellow dotted line is.

Daily Chart

Potential breakout of SB shown by strength of volume and price action.
Potential breakout of SB shown by strength of volume and price action.

The first cyan arrow up is showing you that there was very high volume. The yellow Hawkeye Volume Radar dot placed on the Hawkeye Volume indicates this high volume event, and the Hawkeye Trend dot changes to green, indicating that at this point an uptrend has begun. The second cyan arrow is displayed on a three-day Hawkeye Roadkill setting. You can see that the white dots (an indication of consolidation in the three-day trend) shows the three-day chart is in consolidation, and the green three-day volume bars show that buying volume has begun.

The Hawkeye Perspective

Everything is now virtually in place for a the commencement of a long trend run, but it would have to close above $17.50 to show conviction (the strength needed for continuation beyond the resistance level).

Great Tip to Get the best out of scalping Forex with Hawkeye

Here is a great tip for those scalping Forex: Trading dual timeframes is the key to ensuring low risk entries.
In this chart Roadkill is set to ´aggressive´ and is calculating both 5-minute and 10-minute timeframes.
aud jpy
At Point 1 on this chart you can see that the Hawkeye Trend, represented by the cyan dot on the Roadkill indicator, is positive to the upside. An entry at this point results in a 40 pip profit. Not too bad for scalping Forex. Roadkill is showing an uptrend for Volume and Trend on both 5 and 10 minute bars.
At Point 2 you can see that the Hawkeye Trend on the Roadkill indicator has gone neutral. The volume is showing professional selling as is Heat Map (indicated by the bright red bars). This is yet another low-risk entry resulting in a further 50 pip profit.
Chart 2  shows the inputs that I used for Roadkill in the above trades.
audjpy roadkill settings
Hawkeye perspective
Using dual timeframes when scalping Forex is a winner. By patiently waiting for both timeframes to set up, you are substantially lowering your risk of entry.

Hawkeye Volume shows the low interest rate party is over

The party is unwinding on low interest rates so get ready for inflation. Who knows when, but it’s in the pipeline — it’s just a matter of time, so lock in these low rates asap.

On the daily chart

The cyan arrow shows a double bottom (yellow Hawkeye pivot dots on the price) which indicates the market is oversold, so a rally here offers a great opportunity to get short.

bonds daily

On the weekly chart

Downtrend on declining volume again showing a small rally will occur here.

Markets don’t go down on low volume, they either go into congestion or it is the start of accumulation for an up-move.

US Treasury Bonds

On the monthly chart

This is telling the story, after a rally lasting from 2008 the party is over. Look at the red down arrow. All Hawkeye indicators are short:  red monthly selling volume, red trend dot down and solid red Heatmap showing all trends are to the short side.

US Treasury Bonds

The Hawkeye Perspective

Brace yourself; low interest rates are over. It will take some months to come to an end. Any rally to the upside is a great opportunity to get short. But protect you and your family; this could be a huge trade so immerse yourself and study Hawkeye Volume — the only non-lagged indicator.

Learn why Hawkeye Pivots are so powerful

I often get questions on how to interpret Hawkeye Pivots (the yellow dots on the price bar).

As a general rule, when you see a pivot, it suggests the market has reached a temporary peak/low, which means that for the next three, five or seven bars it is likely to go against its trend or to indicate an exhaustion or turning point of the existing trend.

Lets look at the charts:

The chart on the left (daily) shows where the entry to the short side was triggered (Red down arrow) confirmed also by the weekly chart on the right (Red arrow down). A short trend is identified by the Hawkeye Trend’s red trend dots.

Now lets look at the Pivots:

On the daily chart (left) prior to the red arrow, there was classic congestion with the market moving between pivot high and pivot low and then BAM! a breakdown (shown by magenta Hawkeye Widebar), which was triggered by the pivot on the weekly chart (right) that is just before the trend turns red. All volumes agreed so it was a very low risk entry. But as I write there is a new pivot being set up on the daily and also on the weekly which could terminate this down move. Watching the Hawkeye Volume will give you the information to support this possible trend termination.

Aug 10 pivots

The Hawkeye Perspective

The Reserve Bank of Australia has just dropped rates to their lowest, 2 1/2 percent, which could be the fundamental news the markets required to terminate this move, so if short, look for Hawkeye Volume to show you congestion and exhaustion, and look to the pivots for the market direction.

Crude Oil Goes Bullish – Don’t Miss Out

The crude oil market ($CL_F) has been rather volatile lately, with the past few weeks showing signs of strength in the overall economy. The stock indices have pushed into higher price areas pulling crude right along with them. It’s nice to see some of the commodities coming out of the “dog house”, after having been beaten up for most of the year.

However, at Hawkeye we like to take a step back and look at the bigger picture because sometimes you can be so close to the action (the trees) that you can’t recognize where you are (the forest). And looking at volume is the EDGE that brings clarity back into the picture. Let’s look at the Monthly Crude Oil chart, highlighted by Hawkeye Indicators.

Crude Oil ($CL_F) Monthly chart showing an initial green trend dot change.
Crude Oil ($CL_F) Monthly chart showing an initial green trend dot change.

Take a look at the CL Monthly chart above… it is the first time we have a green trend signal in almost two years. Notice the trend of buying volume coming into the end of this rather lengthy consolidation area (white trend dots). The level of volume on the last four months has consistently been higher than the volume in any other month during 2013… a good indication that buying volume is building and accumulation is taking place. Now, let’s take a look at the Weekly CL chart.

Weekly Crude Oil ($CL_F) chart.
Weekly Crude Oil ($CL_F) chart.

Again, we see a nice bullish trend building (green trend dots), supported by buying volume (green volume bars). The Heatmap (bright green area below volume) is bright green too, indicating momentum has become strong. And finally, let’s look at the daily chart.

Crude Oil ($CL_F) daily chart.
Crude Oil ($CL_F) daily chart.

The bullish trend that started early July 2013 (shown by the green trend dots) on the daily has slightly corrected, but is showing signs of renewal. The Trend dot will change from white to green, indicating a resumption of the long trend shown in both the Monthly and Weekly charts. This will generate a Roadkill signal and should be enough to turn both the longer-term (weekly) volume green and the daily Heatmap from dark green to bright green.

The Hawkeye Perspective

With the overall commodity markets in “major correction” mode, it’s important to keep watch on the ones that show us that strength is coming back into play. By looking at the Hawkeye Volume, the only leading indicator of price action and market sentiment, we clearly see bullish sentiment returning to the crude oil market. Taking advantage of harmony in the charts when all three timeframes agree is very rewarding.

Learn these typical end-of-trend volume patterns to become a proficient trader

This week’s example is the coffee commodity which has has been in a downtrend since October of last year.

In the weekly Chart 1, there was a wide bar shown in magenta and four weeks of tight ranging bars (cyan arrow) unable to break under the dotted line of support.

In the daily Chart 2, it reversed to the upside and then tested the market with a push down (red arrow) on average volume. This does not show a new entry but rather a termination of the dominant weekly downtrend. The last bar is a test down on average volume. Classic end of trend pattern.

trend run pattern

The Hawkeye Perspective

The market should now consolidate at these levels and when you see green volume on the weekly chart (providing the daily chart keeps in uptrend) this will be the commencement of a new trend run to the upside. In other words, the market at the moment is in its accumulation phase.

Learn this perfect low-risk volume setup

A key factor in successful trades is finding those with the lowest risk entry. In the Japanese yen example below, I have shortened the timeframe, as I understand a lot of users use these timeframes particularly for Forex and intraday trading.

The cyan arrow on all three charts shows that the volume has changed to green indicating where the professionals are buying. The Hawkeye trend has gone long (green on all timeframes) and the Hawkeye Heatmap positive on all timeframes.

Low-risk Volume trade setup.
Low-risk Volume trade setup.

Hunt for these perfect setups—they apply to all markets and all timeframes.

Good hunting,

Nigel

Volume is King When Trading Gold.

Some weeks ago, Hawkeye alerted you to the fact that although all the pundits were talking gold up, the Hawkeye Volume algorithm was showing weakness. Let’s look at the charts.

Weekly Gold Chart
Weekly Gold ($GC) trend.

Chart 1 Weekly Gold

Hawkeye has been short since last November at $1,684 (see red arrow above).

Daily Gold ($GC) chart showing possible entries using Hawkeye.
Daily Gold ($GC) chart showing possible entries using Hawkeye.

Chart 2 Daily Gold

The three red arrows show where you could have entered fabulous trades using the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator. With gold in a strong downtrend, the Hawkeye Roadkill identified three possible entries on April 13, May 17 and June 18 that would’ve generated substantial profits!

The Hawkeye Perspective

The market is in a major downtrend. The next major resistance price level is $1,020. Expect to see a major price move to the downside on high volume followed by a narrow bar with light volume.

Remember: markets don’t continue down on light volume so we must wait to see the above profile then expect an explosive up move form this heavily oversold position.


Hawkeye Education

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Special 2 1/2-day Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA on September 21-23, 2013.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

There’s money in trading soybean futures.

Just as you can extract oil from soybeans, you can extract money from the market trading soybean futures.

Soybean futures have had a large price move to the upside over the past two weeks. The price is currently just below strong resistance at 1350 and is displaying classic congestion. (See the yellow dotted lines).

There is a Hawkeye pivot (yellow dot) pushing the market down and both daily and weekly Hawkeye Volume algorithms are showing selling (red arrow).

Daily soybean chart.
Daily soybean chart. Congestion is shown by the dotted yellow lines.

The Hawkeye Perspective

If you are long, lighten up your position. If you are in no trade, wait for the congestion zones (yellow dotted lines) to be broken… but if they are broken, it must be with red selling volume on the daily and the weekly charts, showing that the bias is to the downside.

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Hawkeye Education

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Special 3-day Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA in September.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

 

Get Ready for a Major Yen Trade

The volume on the Japanese Yen futures contract (JY) last week was the highest weekly volume in over six years. The last time the market had volume anywhere near this size, a significant rally that lasted over five years resulted. This could be a sign of major institutional involvement, with major hedge funds making moves in this market. Be patient and wait for a bullish setup to take advantage of — this could be a major move.

Lets look at the charts:

Chart 1 (daily)

Japanese Yen (JY) futures contract daily chart showing a potential reversal.
Japanese Yen (JY) futures contract daily chart showing a potential reversal.

From Chart 1, we see very high stopping volume (blue highlights) and evidence that the market is now being accumulated (green volume bars.) What should happen next? Expect a test to the downside narrow range down bar with high volume and the close in the top 50 percent of the bar’s range.

Chart 2 (weekly)

JY weekly chart ... notice the huge buying volume.
JY weekly chart … notice the huge buying volume.

From this weekly chart, we see buying volume is coming in (see the cyan arrow). The price bar is moving up and if there is a close above the weekly Hawkeye stop (the red cross), a new uptrend will develop.

Chart 3 (monthly)

JY monthly chart showing potential pivot bottom. Expect to see 3, 5, or 7 bars of reversal as a potential move.
JY monthly chart showing potential pivot bottom. Expect to see 3, 5, or 7 bars of reversal as a potential move.

The monthly chart shows high selling volume, but we now have a potential Hawkeye pivot (at the cyan arrow). If an isolated low or pivot does form, we expect it will push the market to the upside for a minimum of 3, 5, or 7 bars.

The Hawkeye Perspective
In conclusion, all three timeframes are manifesting stopping volume from the downtrend that has been in place on the monthly charts since the 29th of February 2012. This market is highly oversold and the Hawkeye Volume algorithm will lead the way, showing the commencement of a new uptrend. However, if the low that occurred on the 13th of May 2013 at 06:52 is taken out, it will revert back into downtrend.

Now YOU can get this Hawkeye edge at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA, 21-23 September 2013.

How to Get Emini Trend Runs

Trade of the Week

In this week’s example I have turned the stops off and made the trend dots white. I am using the tick values generated by the Hawkeye GearBox, a unique tool that gives you the correct tick speeds to trade every day.

I can now see how the market is trading using Hawkeye’s “Six ways a Market Moves.” It is vital that you have this knowledge when you trade. No other educator gives this amazing edge!

Now YOU can get this Hawkeye edge at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix, AZ  in October.

In the chart below,

  1. At the red arrow you can see the trend dot is lower than the previous trend dot and the close of the bar is less than the open.
  2. At the white arrow, you can see a small magenta dot under the white arrow. This is generated by the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator showing an entrance to the downside.
  3. At the cyan arrow, you can see the trend dot is flat and the close is above the trend dot, and green buying volume has come in… exit for a potential 12.5 point move.

emini-060713

The Hawkeye Perspective 

In conclusion, avoid trading any market without knowing the “Six Ways the market Moves!”

It’s the key to being a great trader, and now you can get in on the action at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix in October.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

Hawkeye Live Training Room

Advance your trading skills and see how the Hawkeye indicators handle all the market conditions like the one shown above:

  • breakouts
  • chop
  • trends
  • consolidation

Live training every Thursday from 8:00 – 11:00 am EST.

8:00 am    FOREX

9:30 am     Futures

This new series of training webinars continues until the last Thursday in June 2013.

Click here to register for our Live Training Room now — it’s FREE.

Want even more valuable education? Browse archived Hawkeye Training Room Videos here.

Good trading!

Nigel Hawkes

Where will the dollar index go next?

Trade of the Week

Although the monthly and weekly are just showing trend entry to the upside, the daily chart below shows a trend congestion entrance. Why? Because the live trend dot has gone flat (red arrow) and the close was under the current bars open and the trend dot.

So what do we do look to the left of the chart for the last pivot or phantom high (yellow dot) and draw a dotted line representing the congestion high. We are now waiting within five bars for an isolated low or phantom low to give us the bottom of the congestion range.

dollar index chart trading

The Hawkeye Perspective

In conclusion, until this has taken place there is too much risk to trade the dollar index long, but when the congestion parameters are broken then a trade setup will occur either to the up or down side.

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix in September.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

 

How to trade Google stock with little risk.

Less than three months after it hit $800, Google ($GOOG) topped $900, and is now on the brink of becoming the first tech stock to hit $1,000 a share. And with a slew of product launches in the works, the company’s reputation is getting a boost as well. Though we’re not ready for the risk of getting behind the wheel of their driverless car, we’ve got some low risk trades to reveal.

Trade of the Week
Google stock was extremely profitable when trading the shorter (daily) timeframe, only in the direction of the long term (monthly/weekly) – and with little downside risk.

Hawkeye has been long since October 2010! As you can see by the cyan arrow on the monthly chart.

The Hawkeye tools have shown a low risk long on GOOG since October 2010!
The Hawkeye tools have shown a low risk long on GOOG since October 2010!

The Hawkeye Perspective
Only take longs on your chosen faster timeframe (daily or weekly) when the price goes against the monthly then returns in the same price direction.

The cyan arrows on both the weekly and daily charts indicate when to enter with a minimum amount of risk.

Want to learn more while you watch Hawkeye live in action? Sign up for our FREE Live Training Room. What have you got to lose?

Don’t fall for the Apple hype… yet.

If you’re fueled by high expectations of Apple stock, Hawkeye is here to deflate the Apple-hype balloon.

While the iPhone maker has seldom reported negative figures in a decade, this week, Apple revealed typical congestion and a pause in downtrend.

For there to be a new weekly uptrend, the stock would have to break above $466. Refer to the following chart for the continued discussion:

$AAPL monthy chart shows narrow bars on low volume - an indication of accumulation.
$AAPL monthy chart shows narrow bars on low volume – an indication of accumulation.

Point 1
On this particular day, the daily shows declining volume which translates to stopping volume in the existing weekly and monthly downtrend.

Also, the daily trend dot is rolling over showing lack of momentum.

Point 2
The weekly trend does not show advancing volume, therefore negating a probable uptrend.

Point 3
The monthly chart shows narrow bars on low volume; this normally indicates accumulation which will manifest on the faster timeframes as it develops.

In conclusion, there is too much risk to take a new long till increased buying volume occurs on the weekly chart.

Wait for a low risk entry when the daily and weekly indicate a new uptrend or short when the daily resumes in the direction of the weekly and monthly trend, both low-risk entries.

Three smart ways to exit a trade.

Do you stay with your profitable trades as long as possible hoping for the trend to continue to make your profits even larger? Do you tense up when you have to exit a profitable trade?

Here are three exit strategies to help you exit your trades with ease:

  1. Stops (waiting till the Hawkeye stop is touched or crash barrier breached)
  2. Levels ATR (average true range)
  3. Grabba (for fixed profit targets)

Where to exit is more important than where to enter, but the majority of traders in my experience don’t pay enough attention to exits as they should. Hawkeye Traders has not only developed precise entry methods, but also unique and well defined exit strategies.

AAPL weekly Chart with ATR Levels
Chart 1: $AAPL weekly chart showing ATR Levels management rules.

Using the Hawkeye Levels ATR on weekly stocks are phenomenal. Here are the indicator settings used for Chart 1: set the look back period to 14 and the ATR profit and stop factor to 1.5. The rules are that once the bar has closed above (if long) or below (if short) any level, the exit is a close, NOT TOUCH, of the previous level, or a touch of 2 levels back. This covers sudden reversals, so as Chart 1 illustrates, there was no time following a close below any level where there was a corresponding close above the previous level or a touch of 2 levels back. But now at the point labeled “1”, we have price trying to close above level 5, after closing below level 6… if at the end of this week it does close above level 5, the exit would have taken 5 ATR out of the market.

$AAPL weekly chart 2
Chart 2: $AAPL weekly chart showing Levels ATR management rules.

In Chart 2, I show a “losing” trade… but it demonstrates 2 methods to exit.  The first exit method you can see at the point labeled “1”, where there is a close under the zero line (the entry point) after previously closing above level 1. The second exit method is the Hawkeye stop… you could have exited the trade when price closed below the “+” mark 2 bars back from point 1. But please note it was nearly a scratch trade… the Hawkeye methodology protected you at either exit point you could have selected.

Intraday $ES tick chart
Chart 3: Intraday $ES tick chart showing Hawkeye Levels ATR management.

For intraday $ES trading (Chart 3), I set my Levels ATR to a period of 14 and a profit/stop factor of 1.25. See how this enabled you to take 3 ATRs from this move, as it closed above level 4, then closed below level 3, as shown at the point labeled “1” Chart 3.

$ES intraday tick chart with Hawkeye Grabba
Chart 4: $ES intraday tick chart using the Hawkeye Grabba trade management rules.

Using the Hawkeye Grabba allows you to set the levels at fixed price points. For example, say you want levels at every 1 point on the $ES (Chart 4)… so the Grabba settings are 4 ticks ($ES moves in .25 so 4 = 1 full point), and I set the stop multiplier to 1.25 (exactly the same rules as Levels ATR). To exit, follow the same exit rules described for the Levels ATR, or exit at predetermined profit levels as your trading plan dictates. Like the Levels ATR, the Grabba graphically shows you profit targets and exit levels for your specific exit strategy.

While there is no perfect exit strategy, the Hawkeye Method enables you to exit in strength and reduce the risk that the trade will turn against you if you are in a winning position.

Catch the bigger part of the trend with the Hawkeye Levels ATR, or the Hawkeye Grabba!