Know Pivots. Nail the Market.

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Know Pivots. Nail the Market.

I want to show you how to use Hawkeye Pivots to manage congestion. The power of Hawkeye pivots and phantom pivots are shown here on the Emini.

Chart - Emini Daily

emini 040914

The cyan arrow is where I sent out a danger call on the Emini as there is no demand volume (white volume bar). This also came in with the market as per "6 Ways a Market Moves" going into congestion. So what do we do?

Correct! We look for the last Hawkeye pivot or phantom pivot high. This occurred on the first red down arrow, from where we draw the yellow dotted line. Now let's move forward. Look at the volume profile - its choppy, which is consistent with a market in distribution after an uptrend.

Understanding congestion exit is so important, as we teach in our seminars. Support and resistance lines are not rods of steel but elastic bands. See the second red down arrow, there is a close above the dotted line but the bar and subsequent bars all straddle the dotted line. So no breakout.

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Learn to manage congestion using Hawkeye Pivots. When trading longer time frames always make sure that no part of the bar is straddling the support or resistance line. As I write, a pivot low could be forming on the daily, confirming more sideways congestion.

Start nailing Forex trading now!

I keep telling you, trading is just like hunting - patience is required for the perfect shot. Lets take a look at what this means on the AUDUSD. Ready, aim, trade!

Chart - AUDUSD

fx

The unique Hawkeye GearBox has given tick speeds of 640, 320, and 160 for today (Tuesday). GearBox is yellow telling us to trade in harmony the 320 and 640 charts.

Look where the red arrow is on the 320 chart. All is in place to short. The red arrow on the 640 chart shows dark red Volume and HeatMap (the indicator at the bottom of the chart). Little risk here to take the trade.

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Patience pays off. Wait for everything to line up for a low risk entry. Pull the trigger. BANG! 40+ pips.

Intraday Traders – this is a world first!

Traders, I must try and enthuse you to use Hawkeye's GearBox and GearChanger, part of the Hawkeye Gear Module. It's a pivotal moment in your trading career that will change how you perceive charts for ever. It produces an optimized tick speed based on current volatility and the expansion of volume.

Introduction

Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger work on ALL markets but in this example let's use the S&P E-mini. Each day Hawkeye GearBox gives us a number of optimum tick speeds to trade for that day. As seen at the bottom of Chart 3, Hawkeye GearChanger is yellow all day telling us that the market is trading at normal speed. So in this example for normal speeds GearBox is telling us to trade the 3752 tick and 7504 tick charts. These are the charts I have set up in Charts 1 and 2 below.

Charts 1 & 2 - S&P E-mini

emini gear

 The red arrows in the charts above indicate where both time frames are in harmony, showing a low risk short entry producing a plus 9 full point move. The cyan up arrows show long entry holding to end of day producing a 3 plus full point move.

Chart 3 - Hawkeye KISS

kiss emini

This chart shows the Hawkeye KISS set to 3 minutes. The red arrow shows that the market momentum of advance/declining stock issues is slowing and the market enters congestion. The cyan arrow shows that stocks are advancing. Look at the rising green line in KISS. This prepares us for the entry on Charts 1 and 2.

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Understanding the power of the Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger seriously will change your trading forever. For more information, look up the Hawkeye Gear Module on our website.

Hawkeye teaches you to Swing!

Apple, the most highly held stock in the USA, is great to swing trade. Let Hawkeye teach you how to swing trade the $AAPL.

Chart 1 - Apple 60-Minute Chart

appl 60 mins

This 60 minute chart shows that the market has entered congestion and the unique Hawkeye Volume indicator is showing accumulation volume (as indicated by the cyan arrow).

Chart 2 - Apple 30-Minute Chart

appl 30

Although the 30-minute trend has been up there is no volume support and the 60-minute trend is flat (as indicated by the cyan arrow). So although the bias was to the long side, volume was not pushing up prices but showing accumulation.

Note: the cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective - Swing Trade

Market bias is to the long side, as shown by the 30 and 60 minute charts, where both are showing accumulation. Even the 120 minute chart (not shown) is showing accumulation. But patience is required - a break above the last pivot high on the 30-minute chart (indicated by the yellow dot) at 530 will show the commencement of the swing trade. So, did we show you how to swing trade with Apple?

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

The US Dollar at critical turning point.

To trade the US Dollar, you need to know this. Last week Hawkeye showed no-demand volume, the first sign of distribution in an uptrend. Since then the market price profile has confirmed this setup with a trend pause and no-demand volume. This is a classic set up working through. Today let's looks at how low volume can prefigure an accumulation phase.

Daily US Dollar Index (DX) Chart

us dollar

The US Dollar Index has been in downtrend for some weeks but we are at a pivotal point on the daily chart. Look at where the great short came in on 14 February (indicated by the red arrow) and is showing 80+ pips. However, look at the low volume under the cyan arrow. Remember this is the first sign in your forensic analysis that the market should be commencing its accumulation phase prior to uptrend. So, if you are short pull your stops in.

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

If the close by the end of week is under the dotted line on increasing volume all bets are off and the downtrend will continue. Learn to trade the US Dollar using Hawkeye indicators.

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Be Very, Very Careful!

Last week, we showed how Hawkeye GearBox identified the optimal tick speed to use on Emini futures. Today, let's look at how Hawkeye signals that danger is in the air. Be very, very careful!

Chart 1 - Weekly Emini

This weekly Emini chart illustrates just how Hawkeye called the market beautifully off the weekly volume Roadkill indicator with the large cyan dot (indicated by the cyan arrow). There is a weekly trend run from November 1 2013 with an entry price of 1431 closing today +441 full points on just one contract or +1764 points by using the profit accelerator (Hawkeye) that would multiply profits by a factor of 4!

emini weekly

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chart 2 - Daily Emini

With the weekly in uptrend you could only take long trades on the daily chart. If you were aggressive you could take shorts but with a profit target only disregarding trend runs. BUT WHERE ARE WE NOW? DANGER, YES DANGER. Hawkeye went long on February 14 2014 (indicated by the cyan arrow) and even with yesterday's sell off due to Ukraine the market has gapped up into new highs on declining volume. The unique Hawkeye volume algorithm has shown (as I write on  March 3 2014) it's a no demand bar, so we have a gap up into new highs on no demand. DANGER - tighten up stops and see if distributing volume now comes in.

emini daily

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Wait and tighten up stops and see if distributing volume now comes in. The party may be over, so be very, very careful!

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

How to pick the right tick speed to optimize your chance of emini profit.

Last week, we showed how Hawkeye Volume identifies volume accumulation prior to the explosive breakouts in sugar and coffee. Today, let's look at how Hawkeye GearBox and gives you the correct tick speed to trade with every day. We will show you how using the Emini futures market as an example.

From Chart 1 below, we see the values that the Hawkeye GearBox calculates everyday, showing you the correct tick speed to trade the Emini. There are 4 speeds calculated, and 3 optimal speeds we use to trade in harmony with the markets, as per the Hawkeye Methodology. (see red arrows)

gear box and gear changer

Chart 1 - GearBox and GearChanger on the ES emini.

At the bottom of Chart 1 is the Hawkeye GearChanger. The GearChanger shows you the correct market speed at any point during the day. It shows you which tick speed based on color, is your leading chart to trade from (red arrow). So, when the GearChanger changes color, say to blue, you know to trade off the appropriate Blue tick speed indicated by the GearBox value for Blue.

From the ES 1540 tick Chart 2 below, the Hawkeye GearChanger shows that the optimal speed to trade is the blue (fast) timeframe. The first red arrow shows where Hawkeye identified a short setup condition. The cyan arrow shows where Hawkeye identified a long setup. As you can see, price went up 5 ATR Levels (averate true range - shown by the Hawkeye Levels ATR indicator), and put in a Pivot High (yellow dot).

emini tick

Chart 2 - ES Emini Futures Contract

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

The Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger give you the daily tick speeds optimized for the current market activity. This is a HUGE advantage! This indicator works on all instruments: Forex, stocks, commodoties, ETFs, and index futures. Trade in harmony with the markets with the Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger.

Hawkeye Identifies Two Explosive Commodities

Over the previous weeks, Hawkeye has identified great trading opportunities in Stocks, Forex, Futures and Commodities. Today, we want to look specifically at the Coffee and Sugar futures markets, with a particular focus on how Hawkeye Volume shows identifies volume accumulation prior to the explosive breakouts in both of these markets.

From Chart 1 below, just look at the power of accumulating volume and the price breakout. The first two cyan arrows (drawn for illustration only) are showing accumulating volume. The third cyan arrow shows volume absorption, and the explosive breakout to the upside.

Coffee Daily

Chart 1 - Coffee Daily

From the Sugar Daily Chart 2 below, we see the same phase of the market as coffee showed prior to its price move. Both cyan arrows show volume accumulation. Wait for the Sugar Weekly chart to confirm a price move with green (buying) volume and the heatmap turning dark or bright green.

Sugar Daily

Chart 2 - Sugar Daily

Note: the cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

Accumulation volume is a great sign of future price action. The Hawkeye Volume indicator shows this with great accuracy. See how Hawkeye Volume indicates a break-out to the upside. As we stated here last week, this market is providing a great trading opportunity. Patience has it's reward.

Learn How Hawkeye Volume and Trend Show End of Trend Run (Not a New Entry)

Over the previous weeks, we have produced information that identifies great trading opportunities in Stocks, Forex, Futures and Commodities. Today, we want to look specifically at the Sugar (SB) futures market, with a particular focus on how Hawkeye Volume and Trend shows the end of a trend run, but not necessarily a new entry.

Chart 1 - Daily

This Sugar daily chart shows an extended daily trend down. Then we get stopping Volume coming in (indicated by 2 red dots on the Volume under the cyan arrow), pushing the market up.

sugar daily

Chart 2 - Weekly/Monthly

Both these Sugar charts (weekly and monthly) are in down trends (indicated by the red arrows). This prevents a long entry on the daily chart. However "6 Ways a Market Moves" shows a weekly congestion entry.

sugar  weekly monthly

Note: the red and cyan arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

The market looks like its moving into volume accumulation mode as it bottoms on the weekly chart. This could lead to a congestion entry. Wait and see how Hawkeye Volume indicates either a break-out to the upside or a reversal into the monthly downtrend. This market will provide a great trading opportunity soon. Have patience.

Hawkeye Shows One Great Stock.

The markets are correcting and the Dow is in daily and weekly downtrends. The ES is also in a daily downtrend but the weekly charts show congestion. Weak stocks are tumbling. This is the time for stocks that are strong, as they will probably get stronger when the market returns to an uptrend.

Lets look at Facebook as an example.

Chart 1 - Daily

This daily NASDAQ chart shows a new volume buy entry with accumulating volume (indicated by the red arrow).

facebook daily

Chart 2 - Weekly

This weekly NASDAQ chart shows a wide magenta bar indicating twice average true range (indicated by the red arrow). Normally the price will consolidate here and then push up through the high of the wide bar.

facebook weekly

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software.

Hawkeye Perspective

When prices close higher than the wide bar on the weekly this will indicate strength and an entry to the long side. Warning: if the indices are still falling wait until they turn.  You are trading risk so you need to wait for a low risk entry. NASDAQ rising and Facebook rising – a potentially great trade!

Hawkeye Volume Told You 10 Days Before the Market Sold Off

The Dow (YM) is a classic example of selling distribution volume.

Chart 1 Daily

This shows 10 days of selling volume occurring at the top of the uptrend (indicated by the red arrows), with the Hawkeye trend going white indicating no momentum.

 

dow daily

Chart 2 Weekly

This shows three weeks of neutral volume (indicated by the red arrow) with a Hawkeye pivot (red arrows) to the left so we expect a 3,5,7 bar reversal.

dow  weekly

Note: the red arrows are placed for illustration only, and are not part of the software

Hawkeye Perspective

Until 15,640 is broken on close this is just a pull back in uptrend. If that price level is broken a new weekly downtrend will be in place.

 

 

Hawkeye Knows Where the Dollar Should Go

The dollar index is showing volume accumulation and prices should start to rise testing 81.72 again.

Chart 1: Daily

The cyan arrows show attendant volume coming into the market. All Hawkeye indicators are in up trend mode.

dolaar index daily

Chart 2 Weekly 

Weekly volume gone from neutral to positive after low volume, again confirming accumulation (cyan arrow).

dollar index weekly

Hawkeye Perspective 

Accumulation is now taking place biased to the upside and prices should start to reflect the commencement of trends on both weekly and daily in the coming weeks.

 

See Stopping Volume in Action

The silver market has fallen over 30 dollars since the high of 50 dollars and has been making lower highs and lower lows since May of 2011. However the weekly ranges have been getting smaller and smaller. There is now attendant volume i.e. accumulation volume on the daily chart (see cyan arrow) and also on the weekly chart (see cyan arrow).

silver daily

 

silver weekly

Hawkeye perspective
This is showing classic stopping volume in the down trend and is the precursor of an up move.

 

In FOREX, the Fatman is Boss! It Makes Money.

I really want you to look closely at this 5 minute $USDJPY chart.

$USDJPY 5 Minute Chart
USDJPY 5 Minute Chart

Looking at the Hawkeye Fatman, the colored spaghetti on the left-hand side of the chart, each colored line represents a single currency… the first cyan arrow is showing that the cyan line (USD) has started to rise. The magenta line (JPY) just to the left is bending down showing weakness. So the Hawkeye Fatman has identified the USDJPY as the pair to trade.

Now let’s look at the chart on the right-hand side, the USDJPY 5 minute. The first cyan arrow shows where there is a Hawkeye Roadkill dot, the small cyan dot at the commencement of the London session. This confirms exactly what the Fatman is telling you… USD strength, and JPY weakness. This is the point to enter long the USDJPY.

Now, let’s move back to the Fatman and look at the first red arrow down, that also coincides with the red arrow down on the price chart, telling you that the US dollar is starting to get weak. However, the Hawkeye Trend indicator shows the trend is still in tact as price rides through this congestion, and as shown with the final cyan arrow, both on the Fatman and on the price chart, the Trend has taken you through congestion and taken you up and further 40 pips than if you had exited too early.

The Hawkeye Perspective

This is a classic example of the power of Hawkeye Trend and Hawkeye Fatman. Let us teach you how to use these indicators to enhance your wealth.

Look at this Consolidation Volume!

Sugar (SB) is starting to show signs of strength. Last Friday’s volume was the highest volume since June of this year.

When you get this strong volume on large up-moves, it is a very positive sign of strength, and could well be the commencement of an uptrend. But, you have to be patient. Looking the the chart below, you can see that there is resistance at $17.50, where the yellow dotted line is.

Daily Chart

Potential breakout of SB shown by strength of volume and price action.
Potential breakout of SB shown by strength of volume and price action.

The first cyan arrow up is showing you that there was very high volume. The yellow Hawkeye Volume Radar dot placed on the Hawkeye Volume indicates this high volume event, and the Hawkeye Trend dot changes to green, indicating that at this point an uptrend has begun. The second cyan arrow is displayed on a three-day Hawkeye Roadkill setting. You can see that the white dots (an indication of consolidation in the three-day trend) shows the three-day chart is in consolidation, and the green three-day volume bars show that buying volume has begun.

The Hawkeye Perspective

Everything is now virtually in place for a the commencement of a long trend run, but it would have to close above $17.50 to show conviction (the strength needed for continuation beyond the resistance level).

Great Tip to Get the best out of scalping Forex with Hawkeye

Here is a great tip for those scalping Forex: Trading dual timeframes is the key to ensuring low risk entries.
In this chart Roadkill is set to ´aggressive´ and is calculating both 5-minute and 10-minute timeframes.
aud jpy
At Point 1 on this chart you can see that the Hawkeye Trend, represented by the cyan dot on the Roadkill indicator, is positive to the upside. An entry at this point results in a 40 pip profit. Not too bad for scalping Forex. Roadkill is showing an uptrend for Volume and Trend on both 5 and 10 minute bars.
At Point 2 you can see that the Hawkeye Trend on the Roadkill indicator has gone neutral. The volume is showing professional selling as is Heat Map (indicated by the bright red bars). This is yet another low-risk entry resulting in a further 50 pip profit.
Chart 2  shows the inputs that I used for Roadkill in the above trades.
audjpy roadkill settings
Hawkeye perspective
Using dual timeframes when scalping Forex is a winner. By patiently waiting for both timeframes to set up, you are substantially lowering your risk of entry.

Hawkeye Volume shows the low interest rate party is over

The party is unwinding on low interest rates so get ready for inflation. Who knows when, but it’s in the pipeline — it’s just a matter of time, so lock in these low rates asap.

On the daily chart

The cyan arrow shows a double bottom (yellow Hawkeye pivot dots on the price) which indicates the market is oversold, so a rally here offers a great opportunity to get short.

bonds daily

On the weekly chart

Downtrend on declining volume again showing a small rally will occur here.

Markets don’t go down on low volume, they either go into congestion or it is the start of accumulation for an up-move.

US Treasury Bonds

On the monthly chart

This is telling the story, after a rally lasting from 2008 the party is over. Look at the red down arrow. All Hawkeye indicators are short:  red monthly selling volume, red trend dot down and solid red Heatmap showing all trends are to the short side.

US Treasury Bonds

The Hawkeye Perspective

Brace yourself; low interest rates are over. It will take some months to come to an end. Any rally to the upside is a great opportunity to get short. But protect you and your family; this could be a huge trade so immerse yourself and study Hawkeye Volume — the only non-lagged indicator.

Learn why Hawkeye Pivots are so powerful

I often get questions on how to interpret Hawkeye Pivots (the yellow dots on the price bar).

As a general rule, when you see a pivot, it suggests the market has reached a temporary peak/low, which means that for the next three, five or seven bars it is likely to go against its trend or to indicate an exhaustion or turning point of the existing trend.

Lets look at the charts:

The chart on the left (daily) shows where the entry to the short side was triggered (Red down arrow) confirmed also by the weekly chart on the right (Red arrow down). A short trend is identified by the Hawkeye Trend’s red trend dots.

Now lets look at the Pivots:

On the daily chart (left) prior to the red arrow, there was classic congestion with the market moving between pivot high and pivot low and then BAM! a breakdown (shown by magenta Hawkeye Widebar), which was triggered by the pivot on the weekly chart (right) that is just before the trend turns red. All volumes agreed so it was a very low risk entry. But as I write there is a new pivot being set up on the daily and also on the weekly which could terminate this down move. Watching the Hawkeye Volume will give you the information to support this possible trend termination.

Aug 10 pivots

The Hawkeye Perspective

The Reserve Bank of Australia has just dropped rates to their lowest, 2 1/2 percent, which could be the fundamental news the markets required to terminate this move, so if short, look for Hawkeye Volume to show you congestion and exhaustion, and look to the pivots for the market direction.

Crude Oil Goes Bullish – Don’t Miss Out

The crude oil market ($CL_F) has been rather volatile lately, with the past few weeks showing signs of strength in the overall economy. The stock indices have pushed into higher price areas pulling crude right along with them. It’s nice to see some of the commodities coming out of the “dog house”, after having been beaten up for most of the year.

However, at Hawkeye we like to take a step back and look at the bigger picture because sometimes you can be so close to the action (the trees) that you can’t recognize where you are (the forest). And looking at volume is the EDGE that brings clarity back into the picture. Let’s look at the Monthly Crude Oil chart, highlighted by Hawkeye Indicators.

Crude Oil ($CL_F) Monthly chart showing an initial green trend dot change.
Crude Oil ($CL_F) Monthly chart showing an initial green trend dot change.

Take a look at the CL Monthly chart above… it is the first time we have a green trend signal in almost two years. Notice the trend of buying volume coming into the end of this rather lengthy consolidation area (white trend dots). The level of volume on the last four months has consistently been higher than the volume in any other month during 2013… a good indication that buying volume is building and accumulation is taking place. Now, let’s take a look at the Weekly CL chart.

Weekly Crude Oil ($CL_F) chart.
Weekly Crude Oil ($CL_F) chart.

Again, we see a nice bullish trend building (green trend dots), supported by buying volume (green volume bars). The Heatmap (bright green area below volume) is bright green too, indicating momentum has become strong. And finally, let’s look at the daily chart.

Crude Oil ($CL_F) daily chart.
Crude Oil ($CL_F) daily chart.

The bullish trend that started early July 2013 (shown by the green trend dots) on the daily has slightly corrected, but is showing signs of renewal. The Trend dot will change from white to green, indicating a resumption of the long trend shown in both the Monthly and Weekly charts. This will generate a Roadkill signal and should be enough to turn both the longer-term (weekly) volume green and the daily Heatmap from dark green to bright green.

The Hawkeye Perspective

With the overall commodity markets in “major correction” mode, it’s important to keep watch on the ones that show us that strength is coming back into play. By looking at the Hawkeye Volume, the only leading indicator of price action and market sentiment, we clearly see bullish sentiment returning to the crude oil market. Taking advantage of harmony in the charts when all three timeframes agree is very rewarding.

Learn these typical end-of-trend volume patterns to become a proficient trader

This week’s example is the coffee commodity which has has been in a downtrend since October of last year.

In the weekly Chart 1, there was a wide bar shown in magenta and four weeks of tight ranging bars (cyan arrow) unable to break under the dotted line of support.

In the daily Chart 2, it reversed to the upside and then tested the market with a push down (red arrow) on average volume. This does not show a new entry but rather a termination of the dominant weekly downtrend. The last bar is a test down on average volume. Classic end of trend pattern.

trend run pattern

The Hawkeye Perspective

The market should now consolidate at these levels and when you see green volume on the weekly chart (providing the daily chart keeps in uptrend) this will be the commencement of a new trend run to the upside. In other words, the market at the moment is in its accumulation phase.

Learn this perfect low-risk volume setup

A key factor in successful trades is finding those with the lowest risk entry. In the Japanese yen example below, I have shortened the timeframe, as I understand a lot of users use these timeframes particularly for Forex and intraday trading.

The cyan arrow on all three charts shows that the volume has changed to green indicating where the professionals are buying. The Hawkeye trend has gone long (green on all timeframes) and the Hawkeye Heatmap positive on all timeframes.

Low-risk Volume trade setup.
Low-risk Volume trade setup.

Hunt for these perfect setups—they apply to all markets and all timeframes.

Good hunting,

Nigel

Volume is King When Trading Gold.

Some weeks ago, Hawkeye alerted you to the fact that although all the pundits were talking gold up, the Hawkeye Volume algorithm was showing weakness. Let’s look at the charts.

Weekly Gold Chart
Weekly Gold ($GC) trend.

Chart 1 Weekly Gold

Hawkeye has been short since last November at $1,684 (see red arrow above).

Daily Gold ($GC) chart showing possible entries using Hawkeye.
Daily Gold ($GC) chart showing possible entries using Hawkeye.

Chart 2 Daily Gold

The three red arrows show where you could have entered fabulous trades using the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator. With gold in a strong downtrend, the Hawkeye Roadkill identified three possible entries on April 13, May 17 and June 18 that would’ve generated substantial profits!

The Hawkeye Perspective

The market is in a major downtrend. The next major resistance price level is $1,020. Expect to see a major price move to the downside on high volume followed by a narrow bar with light volume.

Remember: markets don’t continue down on light volume so we must wait to see the above profile then expect an explosive up move form this heavily oversold position.


Hawkeye Education

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Special 2 1/2-day Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA on September 21-23, 2013.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

There’s money in trading soybean futures.

Just as you can extract oil from soybeans, you can extract money from the market trading soybean futures.

Soybean futures have had a large price move to the upside over the past two weeks. The price is currently just below strong resistance at 1350 and is displaying classic congestion. (See the yellow dotted lines).

There is a Hawkeye pivot (yellow dot) pushing the market down and both daily and weekly Hawkeye Volume algorithms are showing selling (red arrow).

Daily soybean chart.
Daily soybean chart. Congestion is shown by the dotted yellow lines.

The Hawkeye Perspective

If you are long, lighten up your position. If you are in no trade, wait for the congestion zones (yellow dotted lines) to be broken… but if they are broken, it must be with red selling volume on the daily and the weekly charts, showing that the bias is to the downside.

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Hawkeye Education

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Special 3-day Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA in September.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

 

Get Ready for a Major Yen Trade

The volume on the Japanese Yen futures contract (JY) last week was the highest weekly volume in over six years. The last time the market had volume anywhere near this size, a significant rally that lasted over five years resulted. This could be a sign of major institutional involvement, with major hedge funds making moves in this market. Be patient and wait for a bullish setup to take advantage of — this could be a major move.

Lets look at the charts:

Chart 1 (daily)

Japanese Yen (JY) futures contract daily chart showing a potential reversal.
Japanese Yen (JY) futures contract daily chart showing a potential reversal.

From Chart 1, we see very high stopping volume (blue highlights) and evidence that the market is now being accumulated (green volume bars.) What should happen next? Expect a test to the downside narrow range down bar with high volume and the close in the top 50 percent of the bar’s range.

Chart 2 (weekly)

JY weekly chart ... notice the huge buying volume.
JY weekly chart … notice the huge buying volume.

From this weekly chart, we see buying volume is coming in (see the cyan arrow). The price bar is moving up and if there is a close above the weekly Hawkeye stop (the red cross), a new uptrend will develop.

Chart 3 (monthly)

JY monthly chart showing potential pivot bottom. Expect to see 3, 5, or 7 bars of reversal as a potential move.
JY monthly chart showing potential pivot bottom. Expect to see 3, 5, or 7 bars of reversal as a potential move.

The monthly chart shows high selling volume, but we now have a potential Hawkeye pivot (at the cyan arrow). If an isolated low or pivot does form, we expect it will push the market to the upside for a minimum of 3, 5, or 7 bars.

The Hawkeye Perspective
In conclusion, all three timeframes are manifesting stopping volume from the downtrend that has been in place on the monthly charts since the 29th of February 2012. This market is highly oversold and the Hawkeye Volume algorithm will lead the way, showing the commencement of a new uptrend. However, if the low that occurred on the 13th of May 2013 at 06:52 is taken out, it will revert back into downtrend.

Now YOU can get this Hawkeye edge at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA, 21-23 September 2013.

How to Get Emini Trend Runs

Trade of the Week

In this week’s example I have turned the stops off and made the trend dots white. I am using the tick values generated by the Hawkeye GearBox, a unique tool that gives you the correct tick speeds to trade every day.

I can now see how the market is trading using Hawkeye’s “Six ways a Market Moves.” It is vital that you have this knowledge when you trade. No other educator gives this amazing edge!

Now YOU can get this Hawkeye edge at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix, AZ  in October.

In the chart below,

  1. At the red arrow you can see the trend dot is lower than the previous trend dot and the close of the bar is less than the open.
  2. At the white arrow, you can see a small magenta dot under the white arrow. This is generated by the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator showing an entrance to the downside.
  3. At the cyan arrow, you can see the trend dot is flat and the close is above the trend dot, and green buying volume has come in… exit for a potential 12.5 point move.

emini-060713

The Hawkeye Perspective 

In conclusion, avoid trading any market without knowing the “Six Ways the market Moves!”

It’s the key to being a great trader, and now you can get in on the action at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix in October.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

Hawkeye Live Training Room

Advance your trading skills and see how the Hawkeye indicators handle all the market conditions like the one shown above:

  • breakouts
  • chop
  • trends
  • consolidation

Live training every Thursday from 8:00 – 11:00 am EST.

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This new series of training webinars continues until the last Thursday in June 2013.

Click here to register for our Live Training Room now — it’s FREE.

Want even more valuable education? Browse archived Hawkeye Training Room Videos here.

Good trading!

Nigel Hawkes

Where will the dollar index go next?

Trade of the Week

Although the monthly and weekly are just showing trend entry to the upside, the daily chart below shows a trend congestion entrance. Why? Because the live trend dot has gone flat (red arrow) and the close was under the current bars open and the trend dot.

So what do we do look to the left of the chart for the last pivot or phantom high (yellow dot) and draw a dotted line representing the congestion high. We are now waiting within five bars for an isolated low or phantom low to give us the bottom of the congestion range.

dollar index chart trading

The Hawkeye Perspective

In conclusion, until this has taken place there is too much risk to trade the dollar index long, but when the congestion parameters are broken then a trade setup will occur either to the up or down side.

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix in September.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

 

How to trade Google stock with little risk.

Less than three months after it hit $800, Google ($GOOG) topped $900, and is now on the brink of becoming the first tech stock to hit $1,000 a share. And with a slew of product launches in the works, the company’s reputation is getting a boost as well. Though we’re not ready for the risk of getting behind the wheel of their driverless car, we’ve got some low risk trades to reveal.

Trade of the Week
Google stock was extremely profitable when trading the shorter (daily) timeframe, only in the direction of the long term (monthly/weekly) – and with little downside risk.

Hawkeye has been long since October 2010! As you can see by the cyan arrow on the monthly chart.

The Hawkeye tools have shown a low risk long on GOOG since October 2010!
The Hawkeye tools have shown a low risk long on GOOG since October 2010!

The Hawkeye Perspective
Only take longs on your chosen faster timeframe (daily or weekly) when the price goes against the monthly then returns in the same price direction.

The cyan arrows on both the weekly and daily charts indicate when to enter with a minimum amount of risk.

Want to learn more while you watch Hawkeye live in action? Sign up for our FREE Live Training Room. What have you got to lose?

Don’t fall for the Apple hype… yet.

If you’re fueled by high expectations of Apple stock, Hawkeye is here to deflate the Apple-hype balloon.

While the iPhone maker has seldom reported negative figures in a decade, this week, Apple revealed typical congestion and a pause in downtrend.

For there to be a new weekly uptrend, the stock would have to break above $466. Refer to the following chart for the continued discussion:

$AAPL monthy chart shows narrow bars on low volume - an indication of accumulation.
$AAPL monthy chart shows narrow bars on low volume – an indication of accumulation.

Point 1
On this particular day, the daily shows declining volume which translates to stopping volume in the existing weekly and monthly downtrend.

Also, the daily trend dot is rolling over showing lack of momentum.

Point 2
The weekly trend does not show advancing volume, therefore negating a probable uptrend.

Point 3
The monthly chart shows narrow bars on low volume; this normally indicates accumulation which will manifest on the faster timeframes as it develops.

In conclusion, there is too much risk to take a new long till increased buying volume occurs on the weekly chart.

Wait for a low risk entry when the daily and weekly indicate a new uptrend or short when the daily resumes in the direction of the weekly and monthly trend, both low-risk entries.

Three smart ways to exit a trade.

Do you stay with your profitable trades as long as possible hoping for the trend to continue to make your profits even larger? Do you tense up when you have to exit a profitable trade?

Here are three exit strategies to help you exit your trades with ease:

  1. Stops (waiting till the Hawkeye stop is touched or crash barrier breached)
  2. Levels ATR (average true range)
  3. Grabba (for fixed profit targets)

Where to exit is more important than where to enter, but the majority of traders in my experience don’t pay enough attention to exits as they should. Hawkeye Traders has not only developed precise entry methods, but also unique and well defined exit strategies.

AAPL weekly Chart with ATR Levels
Chart 1: $AAPL weekly chart showing ATR Levels management rules.

Using the Hawkeye Levels ATR on weekly stocks are phenomenal. Here are the indicator settings used for Chart 1: set the look back period to 14 and the ATR profit and stop factor to 1.5. The rules are that once the bar has closed above (if long) or below (if short) any level, the exit is a close, NOT TOUCH, of the previous level, or a touch of 2 levels back. This covers sudden reversals, so as Chart 1 illustrates, there was no time following a close below any level where there was a corresponding close above the previous level or a touch of 2 levels back. But now at the point labeled “1”, we have price trying to close above level 5, after closing below level 6… if at the end of this week it does close above level 5, the exit would have taken 5 ATR out of the market.

$AAPL weekly chart 2
Chart 2: $AAPL weekly chart showing Levels ATR management rules.

In Chart 2, I show a “losing” trade… but it demonstrates 2 methods to exit.  The first exit method you can see at the point labeled “1”, where there is a close under the zero line (the entry point) after previously closing above level 1. The second exit method is the Hawkeye stop… you could have exited the trade when price closed below the “+” mark 2 bars back from point 1. But please note it was nearly a scratch trade… the Hawkeye methodology protected you at either exit point you could have selected.

Intraday $ES tick chart
Chart 3: Intraday $ES tick chart showing Hawkeye Levels ATR management.

For intraday $ES trading (Chart 3), I set my Levels ATR to a period of 14 and a profit/stop factor of 1.25. See how this enabled you to take 3 ATRs from this move, as it closed above level 4, then closed below level 3, as shown at the point labeled “1” Chart 3.

$ES intraday tick chart with Hawkeye Grabba
Chart 4: $ES intraday tick chart using the Hawkeye Grabba trade management rules.

Using the Hawkeye Grabba allows you to set the levels at fixed price points. For example, say you want levels at every 1 point on the $ES (Chart 4)… so the Grabba settings are 4 ticks ($ES moves in .25 so 4 = 1 full point), and I set the stop multiplier to 1.25 (exactly the same rules as Levels ATR). To exit, follow the same exit rules described for the Levels ATR, or exit at predetermined profit levels as your trading plan dictates. Like the Levels ATR, the Grabba graphically shows you profit targets and exit levels for your specific exit strategy.

While there is no perfect exit strategy, the Hawkeye Method enables you to exit in strength and reduce the risk that the trade will turn against you if you are in a winning position.

Catch the bigger part of the trend with the Hawkeye Levels ATR, or the Hawkeye Grabba!