False Breakouts

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False Breakouts

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi Everyone.

A Day Full of False Breakouts

I hope the week is finding your trading going well. 

Today was an interesting day in the markets. What made it so interesting you may ask… 

It turned out to be full of false breakouts. 

I did my morning trading routine starting with looking at my higher time frame charts and noticed the YM (12-19) contract was moving back and forth between two 60 minute zones.

Trade Chart 1

Determining Direction

Today was Friday and it was also contract rollover time so I was not surprised by the range. But which way was it going to break? I had no way of knowing…

As the markets opened, I watched volume and price action just like the Trade Plan says. Watching for the Hawkeye indicators to line up and give me a signal per my rules.

After some time, the market gave what some would think was an indication that it had picked a direction to the downside based on a breakout of the opening range.

Well, the Hawkeye indicators told me to hold off and wait.

Hawkeye Volume

Avoiding a False Breakout

Hawkeye showed a signal on one time frame but the volume on the second time frame indicated that this move may not advance further.  And, as you can see by the following price action, it didn’t.

It was a false breakout that did not get me!

This day ended up being a range day in the YM market with only false breakouts at both sides of the range.  Following my plan and the Hawkeye 3-Step Entry criteria, I stayed safe.

It was a slow day but I got to keep my money by following my rules.

I hope you did too.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

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Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC