Every Day Be a Better Version of You

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Every Day Be a Better Version of You

Be a Better Version of You

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi Everyone.

Be a Better Version of You

I was talking with my mentor a few weeks back and I was marveling at how he saw the market and how it reminded me that I have so much more to learn. I half-jokingly said to him “when I grow up I want to be just like you! :)”

He replied, “Don’t be like me, be a better version of you!”

I had one of those ‘ah ha’ moments. If I set a goal every morning to be a better (trading) version of me, what I could accomplish would be endless.

We all say ‘that would be nice’ and ‘I am going to do that’ when we hear something interesting but when it comes down to the mechanics of figuring out how to do it and then implementing it, I frequently fall short.

So, How to Change for the Better?

This time the desire to do this resonated deep inside me. The one thing that eluded me was ‘how?’.

I thought, I can just let it set like all the other neat things I came across that never actually got done or I could make concrete plans on how. I chose the latter.

Now, how do I do that??

I sat in front of my charts and stared at them wondering, what can I do (or not do) that would make me a better trader, a better version of me? So many things came to mind. How could I possibly address them all?! I have to admit, there was a bit of overwhelm and I wanted to run and hide.

Well, that won’t accomplish anything I told myself.

Then a light bulb went on, what is the biggest thing I do now that hurts my P&L? That, if I stopped doing that one thing, would make me a better version of myself?

I found my answer.

Changing to a Better Version

Before I started with Hawkeye’s trend following system, I was a counter trend trader. I had success with it for some time until the market volatility changed about three years ago and trading that way killed me.

But, because I had had success with it, I still had a nasty habit of taking counter trend trades (and getting killed in the process.) If I just stopped doing that, not only would I not be losing my profits gained by my trend trades but I would also be following my Trade Plan more effectively.

That is my one thing to concentrate on changing.

Every morning I set my intentions to be a better version of myself from the day before. I bring it to the front of my mind and let it sit there. I form a plan around how I am going to accomplish my goal.

First, I had to identify how I started to feel and act prior to taking the counter-trend trade. For me, I would get antsy to ‘do something besides just watching the charts waiting for the trend to develop.’ I would start to sit closer to the charts, start reaching for the mouse and start clicking around looking for a reason to take a trade.

Once I had identified my physical and emotional reactions, now I could work on relaxing myself when they appeared. And that was what I did.

Every day I concentrated on achieving my goal for the day. And every day it got easier and easier to do.

My P&L got better also.

Being a Better Version – Every Day

Now I do not have to worry about that urge and subsequent giving in to it hurting my trading. It is gone and a thing of the past. I am a better version of myself in that regard.

I have not taken a counter trend trade in three weeks!

And I have also learned a new skill that I am using to work on other trading issues that I want to make better.

I hope this note helps you to also be a better version of you as it has me.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Trading Friends Are Good to Have

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi Everyone.

Making Trading Friends

It has been a little while since my last blog post and I have learned so much. I spent the last few weeks with a trading mentor and other traders who use the Hawkeye system and they are all invaluable on my journey. It has taught me that trading friends are good, no great, to have!

Being a trader can be a lonely business. As traders, we are usually isolated with our computers and screens. We usually can’t talk to our loved ones much about trading because they don’t understand, no matter how much they would like to. That is why having a mentor or a group of trading friends is so important to our success, especially in the beginning when you’re learning.

Why We All Need Friends

Although you may think of yourself as a ‘loner’ or ‘introverted’ (or whatever you might call it,) the human race are social creatures. In our DNA from caveman times, we know our survival is dependant on having others around us that show us our strengths and make up for our weaknesses. Be it brainstorming, fact checking, learning or . . . we learn and adapt faster when we have other like minded people to interact with. Just ask Ray Dalio, the billionaire owner of the hedge fund Bridgewater. He has been lighting up the news channels with his philosophy on brainstorming and employee interactions.

Find Trading Friends in the Hawkeye Chat Room

Hawkeye Traders has created a chat room for all Hawkeye members and it is a wonderful place! When I first joined, the room was a little quiet. But lately there have been many, many posts about trades and strategies for trades. And everyone has been open as to whether they took the trade or saw it after the fact and other details.

One person has been working on a particular entry set up that meets the 3-Step Entry with one added criteria that he has found great success with. Another has picked it up and is also sharing along with his twist. Between the two of them, I have been able to see the mistakes and successes of others and also share in their knowledge. This made my journey easier as I did not feel like I was the only one making mistakes.

Questions and answers have been flying in the room and the camaraderie has been amazing. I have also posted some of my trades to get feedback as to whether I may have missed seeing something about the set up or if I was, indeed, reading the market correctly. This has given me more confidence as I learned to pick out the right market movement and equate it to the lessons of the 6 Ways the Market Moves.

Having the mentor in addition is just icing on the cake.

Join the Hawkeye Chat Room Now!

I invite anyone that feels like it’s only happening to them to seek out and find a group to join where you too can interact and learn from and with. And, if you are a Hawkeye Member, reach out to [email protected] and ask to be added to the group. You won’t regret it.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Following Your Trade Plan :)

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi everyone.

Creating Your Trade Plan

Not too long ago, in this very newsletter, I wrote about creating my Trade Plan. We discussed how important having a trade plan was. That it is one of the most important things in your trading success.

Here is the question I ponder today, why didn’t I follow my trade plan . . ?

After I finished writing the outline of my Trade Plan, I continued the day with creating it. I had all the items in it; Mission Statement, Descriptions of my entry criteria and my goals broken down into steps. The one step I failed to follow today was, take ONLY your set ups (as I write this, I can only lower my gaze and shake my head).

The second most important thing in trading is to Follow Your Trade Plan! I did not do that today.

Following Your Trade Plan?

Two days ago, I followed my trade plan perfectly and I was rewarded for my efforts.

Trade Chart 1

Today, I did not…..

Trade Chart 2

I submit the proof here….

Tell me, does this bottom chart look anything like the chart above it? I hear a resounding “No” coming from you, dear readers.

This day I was not patient. I did not wait for my entries to be clear. I had hubris as I “knew” the Dow was going down and I reacted to almost every “opportunity” to get on instead of being patient . . .

You can say that I was not wrong with my “predictions” however, did I follow my trade plan? No, I did not! And then, to make matters worse, I cut my winner short because I had taken such a beating earlier and I got spooked.

It seems hard to believe that the person who traded the top chart so beautifully is the same person who, two days later, traded the bottom chart.

Are Your Emotions Getting in the Way?

I find it very interesting how our emotions can get in the way of our trading. One of the purposes of a trade plan is so you can trade without emotions, so-to-speak. We all have emotions and it is not easy to trade without them being triggered. That is why having something in writing with specific instructions on what you are looking for and what to do when you find it is important. Without it, we end up with days like I did.

I have come a long way in working through my emotions so they don’t affect my trading. Occasionally, some wires get crossed and I don’t follow my trade plan. So I am baring my soul to you in hopes that it keeps you from letting your emotions and hubris from taking over your trading day.

And, if by some chance it doesn’t, I hope you find solace in the fact that you are not alone.

Now it is time to pick myself up, dust myself off and pull my trade plan out of the folder and keep it by my side for tomorrow’s trading adventures so that I do not repeat today’s mis-steps.

Here’s to Following Your Plan and Happy Trading!

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Micro Futures

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi everyone.

I have been watching the Micro Futures market ever since May 5th when it was made available to trade by my broker. I thought it would be a perfect market to move from Sim to live with as a new trader to the Hawkeye System.

Why Micro Futures?

The micro markets would be a great way to get my feet wet live without investing too much capital. For the dow it is $0.50 point (I know, that’s not saying much but it is better than $0.00 that I get in Sim :)) and the dow mini is $5.00 point.

Let’s put this into the perspective of a trade.

In the e-mini market I put at risk $5 for every point I need my stop to be on the other side of my entry to safely give the trade room to breath.

If a trader is worried about risking, let’s say, $100 of their small account then a person might tend to make the stop smaller to ‘conserve capital’. This may make the trade a much riskier one since the stop is not in the best place possible.

If that same trader were to use the Micro futures, they would comfortably be able to put their stop at the appropriate place as they would only be risking $10 and not $100.

Seeing their trades work out because they are not worried about the dollar amount time after time puts a trader into a better mental frame of mind. This gives them confidence to keep making the right trading decisions and growing their account instead of being worried about losing the money and making their stops too tight.

Another benefit I see of the Micro futures market is that you can move up on your time frames for entry without risking more than you would in the Mini futures market.

Using the Hawkeye 3-Step Method for the Win

Hawkeye has the 3-Step Entry method which I have been practicing. Due to my risk tolerance, I have been trading a smaller time frame than the recommended 3 minute.

As many traders know, the smaller the time frame, the more gyrations. So, I was getting stopped out a little more than I liked.

The method still worked. But the win ratio was smaller than what I was seeing from 3 minute time frame traders. Higher win ratio translates to higher P&L and I want that. I think trading the micro futures is my way to achieving that win rate and higher P&L.

Is There Enough Volume in the Market?

Since Hawkeye is strongly volume based, I wondered if there would be enough volume to trade the system well.

For the first week the volume was low. On the second week I noticed that volume was good during the New York trading day but not good outside of that time. The daily volume after market open has grown slowly but steadily over these last couple weeks. Today however, the volume shot up (compared to the other days). The micro Dow futures has been hovering around 10-15% of the Mini’s market for the last week. But today, it was 23% by the writing of this blog.

I think it will only get better from here.

Daily Volume Micro Futures

A small caveat; the price bars can be a bit ‘gappy’ with the smaller volume. So, I have taken to using the signals from the 3 minute YM (emini) and placing the trades on the MYM (micro). Fills have been decent however there can be a bit of slippage. But at $0.50/point, I’m not worried . . .

I look forward to seeing this market grow and, maybe, see some of you join me there.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

Full disclosure: I only trade the Dow and so am not familiar with the volume on any of the other micro markets. Please check your market before trading.

 


 

 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Trade Plan

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Why We All Need a Trade Plan

Good Day All!

I am here today to talk about Trade Plans. I know, groan…. But remember, Trade plans are one of the most important steps to any trading career.

Every business has a Business Plan and our business of trading should be no different. You wouldn’t go back to your favorite hamburger joint if they didn’t have a plan to build your burger properly so you could eat it.

Just as it is important for a business to have their plan, it is equally important that we each build a Trade Plan of our own.

Make Your Plan

It’s wonderful that Hawkeye has so many videos to learn from. And I have been learning and working on the 3-Step Entry Method these past couple months.

Now that I am feeling more sure of myself and I have worked with this method, I see myself putting my own small spin on it. I have learned over and over that you can teach somebody to do just about anything but until they put their own ‘words’ to it, they will not be able to fully internalize it.

The information on the Hawkeye website is a great starting point. You still have to learn how the execution works best for you and the way you see and analyze the markets.

Trade Your Plan

By nature, I am a contrarian and so I tend to be a counter-trader (one of the main reasons I came to Hawkeye was to learn to be a trend trader.) Trading with the trend did not feel right to me. I have this constant doubt that ‘the trend will continue’ after I enter. Practicing the 3-Step Entry has gone a long way in taking this doubt away. It has also given me a structured entry and exit plan that I was able to practice and learn how I see the markets.

Randy from Hawkeye has a saying ‘Trade your Plan, or plan to fail.” Benjamin Franklin liked to say “Failing to plan is planning to fail.” Two very wise men!

So, while I know the entry criteria from the videos and website, it is time for me to write out MY plan the way I see it. In doing this, it solidifies and gives me a document, a job description, of what is expected of me while I run my trading business.

My Trade Plan

The general outline of my Trade Plan is as follows:

Mission Statement: Why do I want to be a trader?
I think it’s a good question to ask yourself. Not everyone has the same reason for wanting to be a trader.

Name of the Trade I will be describing.
Each type of trade should have it’s own name. (i.e. 3-Step Entry, Counter-Trend Confluence, etc.) This section is where I further describe the rules for my entry in detail. Don’t leave anything out. It is important to be very clear about what your entry looks like. As we have all learned, there are plenty of trades that come along that look [a lot] like your entry but not quite and when we take these tricksters, the trade fails more than it works.

Remember the burger joint, what if they gave a general ‘make a burger’ statement but didn’t say how. You might end up with dressing on the outside of your bun instead of the inside, or maybe your patty would be the base instead of a bun. Sounds like messy hands to me….. I know it sounds silly and that everyone knows ‘how to make a burger’ but they didn’t always. Burgers were invented by someone at some point in time and that person had to teach others how.

Goals.
Every trade plan should have goals that can be broken down into steps that feel like they can be accomplished. Maybe you take a big goal and break it down into many small steps. Make sure the goals are specific so you know if you are on track. It’s great when they have due dates but it is not imperative.

That is the general outline for my Trading Plan. Now it’s time for me to get it all on paper and then implement it.

What good is a Trade Plan if we don’t follow it??!!

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Patience is Key

Patience is Key

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Good Day All!

For those of you who went to the Hawkeye Seminar in Charlotte, I envy you. I was unable to make this one and hope to be at the next one!

I’m sure your learning curve was parabolic just for having attended. Even though I could not attend, I am continuing to learn.

This Week’s Lesson

What I learned this week is… Patience is Key!

What do I mean by that?

Learning to be patient and to wait for your setup is the KEY to fulfilling your trading dream! You could say Discipline to wait is key but I like the positive reinforcement of saying Patience is Key.

We could go into the subconscious mind and how it works but that is for another time…

Practising the 3-Step Entry Method

Today I worked on the Hawkeye 3-Step Entry method. As you may have read in my past blogs, I have chosen this entry method to learn and perfect in Simulation before risking my hard earned capital.

So today was a day of practice and patience.

A picture is worth a thousand words!!

Practicing Patience

Learning to Wait

As you can see from my chart, I was not always patient for my set ups.

Part of it is the learning curve of remembering the entry criteria and the other part is pure impatience. I have a known problem with that and so am working with the Hawkeye software to curtail it.

There are two entries where I was ‘anticipating’ (yes, my other problem) where I thought the market was going and so I traded into the belief that I know more than what the volume indicators are telling me.

Boy, was my hand slapped on those.

Practicing Patience

Thankfully, properly following the entry criteria and sticking to it showed me that being Patient and waiting for the proper set up is Key to a nice profit.

Tomorrow, and the days that follow, will be more practicing my patience until I am strong in trading the 3-Step Entry Method. I hope you practice your patience also.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Best Laid Plans

Closed

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Making Plans

When something doesn’t go as planned, I remember a phrase my grandparents used to say “Best-laid plans of mice and men…” Growing up I didn’t completely understand what that meant as I never heard the rest of the saying “…often go awry”. As an adult, I know all too well exactly what the saying means.

As humans, we like to make plans about all sorts of things. We like to plan what we are going to be when we grow up, what school we are going to go to, where we will live. We like to plan our vacations and our life goals.

And, sometimes those particular plans don’t work out. Something gets in the way of our “best-laid plans” and so we adapt and change our plans. This helps us grow (we hope.) That is what happened today.

Ready to Go Live. . .

I have been practicing my system (the one I shared with you in my last blog post.) Formulating and learning the rules around it. Successfully Sim trading it for quite some time, and I felt it was time to take the next step.

The plan was to get up this morning and move to trading my system in my live account with 1 contract and 1 target. Starting slow and ramping up is a solid plan for risk management and mental preparation.

. . . Or Not

When I wake up to trade, I do a morning routine. I do this without fail every trading day to get me mentally and physically focused and ready to take on the day. This morning, as I was doing my routine, I noticed I was having a hard time staying focused on my process. This routine has been my process throughout my trading career and I have noticed that when I am unable to focus on my routines, my trading day is not good.

So, although I was very disappointed, I decided not to start my live trading today. I did trade but it was in Sim. And again, I proved to myself that trading with live money on these unfocused days does not pay…I ended the morning negative.

I think I only made one trade that truly fit my rules the whole morning.

Best Laid Plans - example bad trades

Permission to Call It Off

As traders, we are our own boss. We can call in sick any time we want but we know it affects our bottom line. Unlike a J.O.B, we don’t have someone else paying for our time so we usually don’t ‘call in sick.’ As business owners, we usually power through these days and then wish we had stayed in bed. We forget that we are people and sometime need to take a day off when we are not at our best.

I hope you all give yourselves permission to ‘call in sick’ when you are not feeling/acting 100%, like I did today. It is important to protect our capital, not to mention our sanity, so we can be successful and live to trade another day.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Square One

Image Stuck at Square One

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Stuck at Square One?

It is time to open the Hawkeye website and learn about what I’ve gotten myself into. I am excited about the possibilities, and a little nervous about the feeling I have of being “back at Square One.” Have you ever felt that way? Maybe a little frustration about it?

But then I ask myself, “am I really back at square one?”… I am not!

There is so much I know now that I didn’t know when I first started out. I know about support and resistance, what they look like on a chart and possible reasons they form. About trends and how to identify them. And, I know about price action. All these things I did not know when I was at ‘Square One’.

How much do you know now that you did not know when you first started? Or maybe you are at Square One and now you are looking forward to knowing these things soon.

Ah, the relief I feel as I realize I am not at square one. I let it sink fully in. This is only a single step on my trading journey forward. I can’t wait!

First Steps

So I dive in and watch the most recent Members Monthly Webinar (watch the webinar herethis monthly training is normally available to Hawkeye Members only). It is on the Hawkeye 3-Step Entry Method. Randy explained clearly how to use the Hawkeye Heatmap for the current time frame and then Hawkeye Roadkill for the next two time frames higher. He answered tons of questions and by the time I was finished watching the video I felt I had a basic knowledge of what to do.

Learning From Wins…and Losses

With this new knowledge, I set my charts up like he suggested using the time frames I am familiar with. I added the indicators and did some basic backtesting to become familiar with the patterns he showed us to look for. After that, I spent the next two weeks watching the live markets and taking (in Sim) the set ups I thought fit the pattern. There were some good choices and some not so good choices but they were all learning choices. It has been shown that we learn more from our losers than our winners when we study them and don’t just brush them aside.

The Pay Off

And it is paying off. Today I took this trade:

3 Step Entry Method Example Trade

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Overwhelm

Overwhelmed

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi All, it’s Michele again.

Overwhelmed

This week’s Journal Entry is titled “Overwhelm” and you will see why I chose this title as you read on. My new Hawkeye Workspace is fully loaded with all the bells and whistles. While it looks impressive and colorful, it is also daunting at the same time. After watching it for two weeks, I must admit, I am feeling Overwhelmed. There are so many charts and so many indicators on a chart, and I don’t know what they all do. And I am not used to that much information yet.

Because I don’t yet know what all these new tools do, I am trying to make sense out of what amounts to a “foreign language” without ever having gone through the lessons to learn how to speak it. Wow, that was an interesting analogy.

I Didn’t Know Where to Start

Before I sat down to write this journal entry, all I felt was the feeling I call ‘Overwhelm.’ I didn’t know where to start because I felt like there was so much going on and so much to do. My brain just spins it over and over until I’ve made a mountain out of a molehill. I’m sure you know the feeling . . . Then, as I was writing and looking for a way to describe my thinking, “foreign language” popped into my head.

Once I saw it on paper, I realized how much pressure I was putting on myself to learn this “foreign language” overnight. Why would I expect myself to learn something this different, overnight? Crazy, right?

My Trade Plan

Now that I understand the source of the feeling (and boy does journaling help in that endeavor), I can formulate a plan. My plan has the following steps:

1. Take clean charts of my favorite time internals.
2. As I go through the training videos, add the indicator I have just learned to my chart and study how it moves with my current knowledge of price action, and support and resistance.
3. In this way, I will grow into the Hawkeye Trading Software just like I would learn a new language or hobby.

Remember, “Rome was not built in a day”!

Closing Thoughts

So by taking these steps, I now feel confident that my plan is achievable. As a result, my feeling of overwhelm has left and a feeling of calm, clear action has taken its place. I hope this helps you also.

Great trading everyone and speak with you again soon.

 


 

Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Coaching Traders with Adult ADD/ADHD

By Kenneth Reid, Ph.D

Sometimes as traders, we all periodically come up against seemingly insurmountable obstacles… such as when our trusty method suddenly stops working and we are forced to switch horses in midstream.

Yikes!

I specialize in coaching traders with Adult ADHD (perhaps 50% of the trader population) who are always changing horses. The typical trader does not spend enough time with a method to learn it inside out.

Symptoms of Adult ADD include not just a revolving door relationship with indicators and methods, but also overtrading, over-confidence, over-reliance on one’s ability to improvise, and a shoot-first-ask-questions-later attitude that makes reading directions a last resort.

I’ve been there; I live there. (When I buy a new appliance the first thing I do is put the directions away in a drawer.)  We like to figure things out for ourselves.

Curiously, the market can induce an ADD-like state in rational individuals who don’t have the disorder. That might have happened to you on your first trading day with Hawkeye.

Trading is like marriage; it looks easy from the outside, but after 5 or 6 years with one system, it doesn’t look the same. Although we are now “experienced,” it’s remarkably easy to regress to a very primitive gut-level approach to problem solving that can destroy an account in a week or two.

Why is that?

Trading is a performance sport. Top athletes are creatures of habit because in the heat of the moment, good habits produce the best results. When we introduce novelty, it degrades our good habits and we have to rebuild them with deliberate practice. So, the best place to practice is by using a SIM account.

I noticed in the previous blog articles that Michele wisely began her Hawkeye Journey in SIM. SIM is very useful if you trade it the same as you would a live account because that takes discipline. It also helps develop and fine-tune your strategy.

I suggest using SIM whenever something new comes into the picture: a new indicator, a new method, a new market, a new platform, a new brokerage. Stay in SIM until you have rebuilt your set of habits. Once you demonstrate you can consistently trade with profits in a SIM account, then you can begin the real work of trading profitably in a live account.

Thanks for your posts, Michele. I’m sure they will encourage and inspire many.


Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

So, I Thought I Could. . .

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi everyone, it’s Michele again.  So, I thought I could just open my charts and start trading my new software without spending time going through all that training. You know, I thought I could save some time and make money too, right? Well, things don’t always work out the way you plan, so here is my first journal entry:

On Friday afternoon, I downloaded my Hawkeye Professional Package and then closed my charts and computer with the intention of getting back to it later that day.  Also, I planned to start setting things up and reviewing the website over the weekend.  Guess what? Yep, surprise, that didn’t happen.

And here it is Monday, and I haven’t reviewed the software material.  I think to myself, “I’ve been trading for a while, and I’m familiar with many indicators, how hard can it be?” So, I thought I could do this.

So I open my charts and my new software, and start trading.  (I bet you’re laughing to yourself right now thinking ‘I’ve been there’ and ‘oh, is she going to be in trouble…’)  Fast forward a few hours and I am soooo glad I was in Sim mode today!!  Yep, total disaster (note: please don’t try anything new with live money!)  I did have a couple moments of ‘true brilliance’ I tell myself as it goes to my target. But reality is that most of the day was utter chaos and “willy-nilly” entries.

Why?  Because my Ego got in the way; I can read a chart! I can read price action! Why do I need to look at videos and learn the way this software is supposed to work? (She writes “tongue in cheek”).

Ok, let’s go back to my first article to you. Do you remember the reason I bought the Hawkeye system? Because the volatility of the market had increased to a point where my current system Reward:Risk ratio did not work.  So then why do I think I can 1) use my current trading style on different colored charts and expect a better outcome (the definition of insanity 😉); and 2) totally throw money away by purchasing a system that I am not taking full advantage of?

Now that I write this on paper, it seems so silly to let my Ego get in the way of my success.  The Ego is a wily creature that creeps up on you when you least expect.  It takes control and then we/I usually end up in negative P&L territory.

A strong person will recognize when Ego has taken over (it may be in hindsight, but it is recognized all the same). Once recognized, they turn the situation around to where their rational self is back in control.  Now they can drive their own “destiny bus” down the Highway.

So, I thought I could jump right into trading without taking the time to learn the new system, and I was so wrong. Now I am off to watch my lesson videos. I can’t wait to see the wonders there! Have a great week everyone!


Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

The Journey Begins . . .

Arrow

By Guest Contributor, Michele Hurlbut

Hi, my name is Michele and I am a futures Intra-day trader.

I have traded futures since 2012 using support/resistance as my primary system. Using volume bars or volatility indicators were not in my plan. My success rate has been pretty good, but in the last year, the market has changed and my system was not working so great. Market volatility had increased to a point where my R:R (Reward:Risk) ratio was not working. I waited for a long time to see if the market would ‘calm down’ and go back to ‘normal’. However, it’s been too long and it looks like the market has found a ‘new normal’. If you are a seasoned trader, you might be familiar with the market gyrations. I have traded in this long-term Bull market only. As a result, I am not familiar with this new market condition. I was at my wits end and did not know where to turn.

Randy and I first met a few years ago when he was searching for a support/resistance tool to add to his Hawkeye Toolbox. I remembered that Randy used volume and trend together with support/resistance. So I reached out to him two months ago, just to see what he thought of this market.

I have been using the Hawkeye Volume Module for the past 2 months and have found it very enlightening. During this time, Randy was graciously posting some of his charts and entries. Consequently, things started to click more, so I decided to get the whole Hawkeye Professional Package and dive in. I liked the way it was giving entries (my current method did nothing of the sort). These entries were in areas that my current method gave hints at the possibility of an entry IF I understood what the candlesticks were saying. The market has been beating me up for the past year and I am now a little gun shy about my ability to see an entry, let alone take it. I have learned that the mental side of trading can make or break you, and my mental side is a little broken right now.

Being a new user to the Hawkeye system, Randy and I thought it would be great to share my Hawkeye trading journey with you. I expect you will find that you are not alone in your many hours in front of your computer watching charts and studying bars. Hopefully, my journey will encourage you to keep going even when the going gets tough. Trading is an amazing ride and I want you to all join me in it.


Join Randy in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

A Hawkeye Volume Setup for +90pips on the EURAUD

Australian flag

There is no better tool to trade with than Hawkeye Volume!

Why?

I’m glad you asked. . .

Volume is a leading indicator, signaling the intentions of price ahead of time. You have heard it said that “Volume is the fuel that drives the market”. And traders all over the world gain the edge they are looking for when Hawkeye Volume is coupled with triple timeframes.

Hawkeye Volume and Price

Hawkeye makes volume price analysis simple. The Volume indicator shows whether buying or selling is dominating the market using simple color codes:  Red shows professional selling, Green shows professional buying, and White shows no demand. In other words, it doesn’t just tell you the volume, as with other trading software, but it actually tells you whether the volume is professional BUYING or professional SELLING.

Below is a nice example of a 15 minute EURAUD setup:

Hawkeye Volume leads to +90 pip EURAUD Setup

Notice how just before the big price move down, that Volume signaled the intent of price way before the trend began, shown by the oval and Red price bar extension. The red bar also has a Hawkeye Pivot (yellow dot). Therefore, we expect price to reverse 3-5 price bars after a Pivot. With opposing volume however, it is a compelling signal of market reversal. On top of that, we also see a Price Action Failure, shown by the aqua box on a triple top. Here, volume and price are working together to signal the intent of price to make a substantial move down.

The results were quite rewarding, as this example shows. Using the Hawkeye ATR Levels tool, a 8:1 Reward:Risk value was achieved, yielding a potential +90 pip trade. Note that the entry was a standard Hawkeye setup, following our 3-Step Entry/Exit Method. Our training courses teach this Method. These types of setups occur every day, and Hawkeye Volume is the best at showing you this action.

The Hawkeye Perspective

Don’t sit by and let trades like this pass you up. . .  As a core component of all our unique indicators, Hawkeye Volume leads the way to a trading plan that can generate consistent profits daily.


Join me in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Defining Risk in Your Trading

Do you know exactly how much you risk each time you place a trade?

In his recent article ‘The Commitment Secret’, Dr. Kenneth Reid challenged us to commit to an ongoing process of self-improvement. In today’s article, we want to consider the topic of trade risk.

Do you clearly define the point at which you will exit a trade if it goes against you?

If we trade without pre-defined exit points, our risk is infinite. As such, it is impossible to calculate the financial risk of that trade, and exposes our entire account to risk. Not only is this extremely bad for our pocket,  but it’s also a source of a immense emotional pain and psychological damage.

In this scenario, where would we exit the trade, and by then how big will that loss be?

Do you clearly define how much of your account you will risk on each trade?

If I enter a trade with the same lot size for each currency pair, then I am not defining my risk. Why? Because each currency pair has a different cost per pip. For example, one standard lot on the EURGBP is around $12.80 per pip, whereas one standard lot on the GBPAUD is around $7.50 per pip. So the risk on the two trades is not the same with an equal lot size.

Why should we define the risk on each trade?

If we consider how we bet on a horse race then the answer is quite simple.

The odds are calculated on the probability of a horse winning and we use those odds to define our trade parameters. So, for example, if the odds are 10:1 and I bet $1, then a win would return my $1 stake and $10 in profit. However, if my horse does not win then the bookie keeps my $1 bet. In this scenario, I fully understand that I will lose $1 if my horse does not win and I have considered it a worthwhile trade as I have the chance to make $10 by risking $1.

Now, if the bookie couldn’t tell me how much I will lose if the horse fails to win, but that it might be all the money in my account, (which, incidentally, he holds for me in his own bank account) would I then take a bet on that horse? I certainly wouldn’t – but yet, surprisingly, many traders do.

What are the benefits of defining and accepting the risks on each trade?

How about I say you can be the bookie (to define the trade odds) and then also the customer to take that trade? Well, that is just what we do when we trade.
So, for example, I could set a stop loss at -50 Pips and take profit at +100 pips (1:2 risk to reward) and then risk $100 on the trade. If the trade stops out I lose $100 but if the trade is a winner I will gain $200.

But just remember, as the bookie or as the customer, I have no way to determine or influence the outcome of the race, I am just defining my trade parameters and must accept the outcome.

The skill in trading is then to find high probability trades and to pre-determine the exit, which is the subject for another day.

How do we determine the risk in Hawkeye Tomahawke FX?

Hawkeye Tomahawke Chart

Using the Tomahawke method, we use a trade execution tool to place our trades quickly, as we are trading the shorter time charts.

This tool makes us place a stop in the charts. We think about and determine the point to exit that trade should it go against us. In the settings, we also pre-determine how much of our account we wish to risk on each trade (normally  ½ percent on each trade).

When we take a trade, the software automatically calculates the lot size given the number of pips to the stop and the total value we are risking on that trade. So, for example, if we are risking $100 on a trade with a 10 pip stop, then we risk  $10 per pip. The software calculates that as a lot size and enters the trade. Should the stop be hit, we will lose $100 and no more. We accept this as our defined risk.

I hope this article helps you to think about risk in your trades and how to become a better trader.

 


 

Join Me in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Good trading,

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Why Volume is So Important – Volume Leading Price

In today’s video blog, I highlight a short trade in GBPJPY which is a beautiful example of Hawkeye Volume leading the way to price action. This shows why using Volume in Forex trading is so important.

The Hawkeye Volume tools were spot on again. As a result, the potential for good profits is high.

092416 Video Blog

This example showed Volume leading the way to price action. Using volume in your trading is important. Coupled with price action, it is the Edge you have been looking for.

Be sure to join me in the next LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room.

Join me in the next free LIVE Hawkeye Demonstration Room held every Wednesday at 9.30am EST US. You will learn more about volume and volume price analysis and see more examples and live trade setups. It is open to all.

Click this link for more information or to join us in class.

Learn to trade the Hawkeye way.

Randy Lindsey
Hawkeye Traders, LLC

Volume is King When Trading Gold.

Some weeks ago, Hawkeye alerted you to the fact that although all the pundits were talking gold up, the Hawkeye Volume algorithm was showing weakness. Let’s look at the charts.

Weekly Gold Chart
Weekly Gold ($GC) trend.

Chart 1 Weekly Gold

Hawkeye has been short since last November at $1,684 (see red arrow above).

Daily Gold ($GC) chart showing possible entries using Hawkeye.
Daily Gold ($GC) chart showing possible entries using Hawkeye.

Chart 2 Daily Gold

The three red arrows show where you could have entered fabulous trades using the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator. With gold in a strong downtrend, the Hawkeye Roadkill identified three possible entries on April 13, May 17 and June 18 that would’ve generated substantial profits!

The Hawkeye Perspective

The market is in a major downtrend. The next major resistance price level is $1,020. Expect to see a major price move to the downside on high volume followed by a narrow bar with light volume.

Remember: markets don’t continue down on light volume so we must wait to see the above profile then expect an explosive up move form this heavily oversold position.


Hawkeye Education

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Special 2 1/2-day Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA on September 21-23, 2013.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

Everyone went crazy over Gold, but not Hawkeye!

With the crisis in Cyprus unfolding, every pundit and novice commentator was calling gold to new highs. However, the Hawkeye system was in opposition, as the only true leading indicator — volume — did not confirm. The Hawkeye Volume indicator was built on Volume Spread Analysis, and is quite complex… but we made the display very simple and intuitive, using only three colors to identify the presence of buying, selling or neutral volume in the market.

The power of Volume Spread Analysis is revealed in Gold.
The power of Volume Spread Analysis is revealed in Gold.

 

Refer to the chart above for the discussion that follows:

1. Although the daily went into an uptrend (green trend dots),
2. notice there was no confirmation of either green buying volume or green trend from our unique Roadkill indicator, showing us what the weekly time frame was doing… neutral volume and red down trend.
3. A pivot low (yellow dot) with 2 bars of buying volume pushes market up 3 bars in an overall down trend.
4. LOW RISK ENTRY: a pivot yellow dot formed, and neutral volume followed by selling volume pushes market down, and it closed down $25.30 on the week.

Warning:
The weekly volume from the previous week was green, but the close was less than the open showing weak conviction. At the end of the week, April 12, 2013 was a widebar (twice average true range x 20 bars). The close was in the bottom 40% of the range. This confirmed the Hawkeye weekly trend that has been place since November 2, 2012.

Remember the Hawkeye widebar rule: we now expect the market to consolidate hereuntil there is a weekly close lower than this widebar.

This is the power of Volume Spread Analysis!

Forecast for the GBP/JPY

gbp/jpy daily chart
GBP/JPY – Daily Chart

With the US markets closed today for the annual Thanksgiving holiday, focus in the currency markets has centered around the Japanese Yen once again, as money flows continue to move into other currencies ahead of the Japanese elections in December. Both the USD/JPY and several of the cross currency pairs have seen sharp moves higher, with the GBP/JPY one of these, and climbing on the daily chart once again today, following yesterday’s wide spread up bar, which added further impetus to the move.

Following the breakout above the 130.00 price level, the bullish trend is now firmly established, with both the daily and three day trends firmly established. The Hawkeye Heatmap has also returned to bullish, following a period of transition, and with sustained and rising buying volumes on the daily chart, supported by buyers on the three day chart, the outlook for the GBP/JPY remains very positive. Finally of course, Hawkeye has delivered a conservative entry signal this week giving a solid entry for longer term trend traders in this currency pair.

Oil continues to trade in congestion

oil futures chart
January WTI Oil Futures – Daily Chart

January oil futures closed marginally higher yesterday, closing the oil trading session at $87.38 per barrel, having touched an intraday high of $87.89 per barrel, before ending the oil trading session just 10 cents per barrel higher. The current lack of direction for crude oil has been a feature of many markets over the last few weeks, as commodities in general trade in a consolidation phase as we move towards the year end, with the price congestion for oil clearly defined by the pivots above and below this current range.

To the upside, we have two isolated pivot highs, just below the $90 per barrel level, and below, two isolated pivot lows in the $85 per barrel price area, which define the limits of the current congestion phase. The most recent of these was on Tuesday, which is pushing the market lower as a result.

The Hawkeye widebar of early November was never validated, suggesting a lack of downside momentum, with the market pulling back to trade within the spread of the bar and failing to continue the bearish trend, with the daily trend now in transition to white. The three day trend however remains firmly bearish, with no transition as yet, and supported by heavy selling volumes in this time frame.

On the daily chart buyers have returned, but counterbalanced by yesterday’s rising selling volume in a narrow spread day. The Hawkeye Heatmap is in transition from bearish to bullish, but has yet to complete the full cycle, and the key now for the oil market, is whether we see a break above or below the current congestion. For a move higher, the $90 per barrel level is now key, and if this holds then we can expect to see a retest of the deep price congestion in the $92 per barrel area and beyond. A break below the $85 region, could see the market sell of sharply again, and test the $78 per barrel level in due course. As always, Hawkeye will reveal the future direction of the market, using volume as the only leading indicator.