Index Market Forecast and Analysis Archives - Page 2 of 2

June 11, 2013

How to Get Emini Trend Runs

Trade of the Week

In this week’s example I have turned the stops off and made the trend dots white. I am using the tick values generated by the Hawkeye GearBox, a unique tool that gives you the correct tick speeds to trade every day.

I can now see how the market is trading using Hawkeye’s “Six ways a Market Moves.” It is vital that you have this knowledge when you trade. No other educator gives this amazing edge!

Now YOU can get this Hawkeye edge at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix, AZ in October.

In the chart below,

At the red arrow you can see the trend dot is lower than the previous trend dot and the close of the bar is less than the open.
At the white arrow, you can see a small magenta dot under the white arrow. This is generated by the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator showing an entrance to the downside.
At the cyan arrow, you can see the trend dot is flat and the close is above the trend dot, and green buying volume has come in… exit for a potential 12.5 point move.

The Hawkeye Perspective

In conclusion, avoid trading any market without knowing the “Six Ways the market Moves!”

It’s the key to being a great trader, and now you can get in on the action at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix in October.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

Hawkeye Live Training Room

Advance your trading skills and see how the Hawkeye indicators handle all the market conditions like the one shown above:

breakouts
chop
trends
consolidation

Live training every Thursday from 8:00 – 11:00 am EST.

8:00 am FOREX

9:30 am Futures

This new series of training webinars continues until the last Thursday in June 2013.

Click here to register for our Live Training Room now — it’s FREE.

Want even more valuable education? Browse archived Hawkeye Training Room Videos here.

Good trading!

Nigel Hawkes

June 4, 2013

Where will the dollar index go next?

Trade of the Week

Although the monthly and weekly are just showing trend entry to the upside, the daily chart below shows a trend congestion entrance. Why? Because the live trend dot has gone flat (red arrow) and the close was under the current bars open and the trend dot.

So what do we do look to the left of the chart for the last pivot or phantom high (yellow dot) and draw a dotted line representing the congestion high. We are now waiting within five bars for an isolated low or phantom low to give us the bottom of the congestion range.

The Hawkeye Perspective

In conclusion, until this has taken place there is too much risk to trade the dollar index long, but when the congestion parameters are broken then a trade setup will occur either to the up or down side.

Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.

Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Hawkeye Seminar in Phoenix in September.

Click here to express your interest in the seminar.

May 6, 2013

Emini intraday breakout setting up now

Emini showing first sign of congestion breakout on Hawkeye charts to upside when price closes above cyan arrow.
Good trading,
Hawkeye

May 4, 2013

Three smart ways to exit a trade.

Do you stay with your profitable trades as long as possible hoping for the trend to continue to make your profits even larger? Do you tense up when you have to exit a profitable trade?

Here are three exit strategies to help you exit your trades with ease:

Stops (waiting till the Hawkeye stop is touched or crash barrier breached)
Levels ATR (average true range)
Grabba (for fixed profit targets)

Where to exit is more important than where to enter, but the majority of traders in my experience don’t pay enough attention to exits as they should. Hawkeye Traders has not only developed precise entry methods, but also unique and well defined exit strategies.

AAPL weekly Chart with ATR Levels — Chart 1: $AAPL weekly chart showing ATR Levels management rules.

Using the Hawkeye Levels ATR on weekly stocks are phenomenal. Here are the indicator settings used for Chart 1: set the look back period to 14 and the ATR profit and stop factor to 1.5. The rules are that once the bar has closed above (if long) or below (if short) any level, the exit is a close, NOT TOUCH, of the previous level, or a touch of 2 levels back. This covers sudden reversals, so as Chart 1 illustrates, there was no time following a close below any level where there was a corresponding close above the previous level or a touch of 2 levels back. But now at the point labeled “1”, we have price trying to close above level 5, after closing below level 6… if at the end of this week it does close above level 5, the exit would have taken 5 ATR out of the market.

$AAPL weekly chart 2 — Chart 2: $AAPL weekly chart showing Levels ATR management rules.

In Chart 2, I show a “losing” trade… but it demonstrates 2 methods to exit. The first exit method you can see at the point labeled “1”, where there is a close under the zero line (the entry point) after previously closing above level 1. The second exit method is the Hawkeye stop… you could have exited the trade when price closed below the “+” mark 2 bars back from point 1. But please note it was nearly a scratch trade… the Hawkeye methodology protected you at either exit point you could have selected.

Chart 3: Intraday $ES tick chart showing Hawkeye Levels ATR management.

For intraday $ES trading (Chart 3), I set my Levels ATR to a period of 14 and a profit/stop factor of 1.25. See how this enabled you to take 3 ATRs from this move, as it closed above level 4, then closed below level 3, as shown at the point labeled “1” Chart 3.

$ES intraday tick chart with Hawkeye Grabba — Chart 4: $ES intraday tick chart using the Hawkeye Grabba trade management rules.

Using the Hawkeye Grabba allows you to set the levels at fixed price points. For example, say you want levels at every 1 point on the $ES (Chart 4)… so the Grabba settings are 4 ticks ($ES moves in .25 so 4 = 1 full point), and I set the stop multiplier to 1.25 (exactly the same rules as Levels ATR). To exit, follow the same exit rules described for the Levels ATR, or exit at predetermined profit levels as your trading plan dictates. Like the Levels ATR, the Grabba graphically shows you profit targets and exit levels for your specific exit strategy.

While there is no perfect exit strategy, the Hawkeye Method enables you to exit in strength and reduce the risk that the trade will turn against you if you are in a winning position.

Catch the bigger part of the trend with the Hawkeye Levels ATR, or the Hawkeye Grabba!

April 27, 2013

Trade of the Week – Understanding Roadkill, a Low Risk Entry.

This week I want to review the basic setup I used for our trade of the week. Looking at the intraday ES market, we begin with the Hawkeye Gearbox – a unique indicator exclusive to Hawkeye Traders. Every trading day, the Gearbox calculates and gives us the exact tick speed to trade the market… so you are always trading in harmony with the market vibration. Shown in Chart 1 is a picture of the Gearbox. A great deal of technical analysis goes into every calculation… we do the heavy work for you, and display the results.

From the Gearbox, we see 4 primary speeds to use throughout the trading day… ultrafast (aqua), fast (blue), normal (yellow), and slow (orange for futures/equities and red for Forex). For today’s charts, I will refer to the yellow speed (3588 ticks) and the orange/red speed (7176 ticks), and you should see that my charts are set to these tick speed settings.

The yellow time frame, which is the dominant time frame, shows a cyan dot below the red bar, indicting a Roadkill entry. I am often asked why it did not come sooner in the trend, but we are wanting trades where the risk is low, and therefore the close of a bar to trigger roadkill has to be greater than the open, and in the top 50% of the range. This condition occurred at the cyan dot, confirming our conservative entry. Without having to understand the full breadth of technical analysis behind the trade setup, the Hawkeye uses an intuitive color system to easily identify entries. When everything lines up, the entry is confirmed.

Always look at the orange/red time frame (the slowest) and never trade against it. It shows a pivot low (the yellow dot). A pivot will “push” the market up 85% of the time as we are in an established uptrend. This indicates a pull back and reversal back into the dominant trend… which equals a low risk entry! Know your tools and trade with confidence.

Next week, I will highlight and demonstrate where to take profits.

Good trading,

Nigel

September 2, 2012February 9, 2018

Forecast for the daily VIX

VIX daily chart using Hawkeye indicators — VIX daily chart

Alongside the USD index, the VIX is another of those powerful indices, which gives clear signals of the broad market sentiment which ebbs and flows on a daily basis. The VIX is often referred to as the fear index, as it displays the market mood and whether market players are in ‘risk on’, or ‘risk off’ territory. It is based on the balance of calls and puts in the options market, and therefore gives a powerful insight into whether traders and speculators are protecting their risky assets with puts, or buying calls anticipating a rise in the markets. As a result the VIX works inversely to equity markets, with the VIX falling as stock markets rise and the VIX rising as stock markets fall. All of this is governed by the old adage, when the VIX is low it’s time to go ( or sell ). So where are with in today’s market.

The daily VIX has been falling steadily since the peak of early June when the index hit a daily high of 28, before falling steadily, to close on Friday at 17.47 following the statement from Jackson Hole by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Equity markets had been hoping for some clearer statement from Mr Bernanke, but the only hint given was that the FED was ready an willing to ‘pull the trigger’. Whilst the Hawkeye daily trend has turned bullish, the three day trend remains firmly bearish, and despite the recent buying volume of the last few days, it is interesting to note that Friday’s bar closed with white volume of ‘no demand’, possibly hinting that the recent move higher for the VIX could now be running out of steam. Any further move higher will need to breach the 21 price region where strong resistance awaits. To the downside, the platform of support is now in place in the 13 area on the chart, and should this be breached then we can expect to see further strong gains for equity markets towards the end of the year, but as always, once the VIX moves into single figures, then this will signal the end of the bull run, and a possible sharp sell of in due course.

If you would like to see Hawkeye in action, simply click the link below to join one of our Free Live Training Rooms where we trade using the full suite of tools and indicators across all the markets.

September 2, 2012February 9, 2018

Where next for the YM mini Dow

The YM mini dow index on the daily chart — YM Mini Dow – daily chart

Like many of the major equity markets around the world, the mini Dow index has now reached a critical level, with the daily September contract closing at 13,079 ahead of the 3 day weekend with markets closed on Monday for the US labor day.

Since March, the index has flirted with the 13,200 level on several occasions and each time, Hawkeye has delivered an isolated pivot high, giving a clear signal of future weakness at this level. These pivots have now created a strong level of price resistance in this area, and if the recent bullish momentum is to continue, then we will need to see a clear break and hold above this level. Friday’s price action suggests something different in the short term however, with the first red trend dot appearing on the daily YM chart, coupled with a transition in the Hawkeye Heatmap from dark green to bright red, a strong bearish signal.

This change in sentiment has also been accompanied by rising selling volume over the last few days, once again suggesting a bearish move lower, with the isolated pivot high of Monday adding more weight to this analysis. All of this has been reflected in the VIX which has been rising strongly over the last few days, and with the FED sitting firmly on the fence for the time being, we are in for some interesting times for equity markets and the YM in particular as traders and investors return to the markets with a vengeance following the long summer recess.

If you would like to see Hawkeye in action, simply click the link below to join one of our Free Live Training Rooms where we trade using the full suite of tools and indicators across all the markets.

September 2, 2012February 9, 2018

The USD index turns firmly bearish

dollar index daily chart using Hawkeye — USD index daily chart – September futures contract

Whatever the market you are trading, either as an investor or as a speculator, having a view on the US dollar is key to longer term trading success, which is where the USD index steps in. The US dollar is the currency of first reserve and underpins all the principle capital markets, and the dollar index gives us a clear view of dollar strength or weakness against a basket of major currencies. As a result the daily dollar index chart gives us powerful signals as to the future direction for all the major markets, since all are interrelated by the associated currency flows both from and to the US dollar.

Over the last few months, the USD index has traded in a relatively narrow range, testing the 85 price point to the upside and the 81 region to the downside on the September futures contract. Much of this sideways price action was as a result of the markets waiting for some clear signals from the Federal Reserve, and Ben Bernanke in particular on any future stimulus for the US economy, which is still struggling to recover, with stagnant growth and a mountain of debt, coupled with insufficient new jobs. Indeed, whilst the headline unemployment rate is quoted at around 9%, the true figure is far more shocking, and believed to be well into double figures. Conservative estimates put the figure nearer 20% rather than 10%. It is against this backdrop that the FED has been waiting to act, hinting at a further round of quantitative easing, or QE3 – printing money which are then converted to bonds.

Friday’s long awaited statement from Mr Bernanke failed to deliver any clear statements, but merely hinted at further stimulus, and that the Federal Reserve was ‘ready to pull the rigger’. This was sufficient to weaken the US dollar on the daily chart, with the USD index closing the session at 81.21, it’s lowest level for three months, as the index now tests this key support region which is now a critical price level.

Hawkeye has been giving us strong signals of this bearish sentiment as far back as the second week in August when an aggressive Roadkill signal appeared on the chart. Since then the daily trend has continued to remain red, with the three day trend now moving into white congestion and likely to follow suit shortly. With bearish volume in both timeframes and further confirming Roadkill signals, the outlook is bearish for the US dollar, and this is likely to be reflected in gains for all the major commodities, as well as strength in the related currency majors, bullish equity markets and outflows from bonds.

If the index breaks and holds below the 80.00 level on the daily chart, then we can expect to see the dollar index move to test the 78.50 lows of earlier this year in due course.

If you would like to see Hawkeye in action, simply click the link below to join one of our Free Live Training Rooms where we trade using the full suite of tools and indicators across all the markets.

November 29, 2011February 9, 2018

This Week’s Market Forecast – Risk On Returns!

Last week was the worst Thanksgiving week on Wall Street since 1941. Traders and investors reeled from the problems in Europe, as well as the collapse of the US budget deficit talks. The S&P 500 fell almost 5% on the week, closing just below the key 1160 level. The Dow was also down almost 5% over the week, and the Nasdaq was down by 5.1%.

The selloff really took place following the disastrous German bond auction which saw demand for the 10 year Bund at its lowest since the euro was created. Investors rushed to safety but redefined safety to exclude Bunds, moving instead into US Treasuries, UK Gilts, and Nordic Bonds.

With investors shunning German Bunds, the euro duly collapsed, particularly against the US dollar as the EURUSD tested the 1.32 level before moving back higher. As one commentator has said, this now appears to be the “apocalypse” trade – if German bonds cannot attract investors, and are no longer considered a safe haven, surely it’s now all over for the euro?

As always, nothing is quite as it seems and this may be a hasty conclusion – at least for this week!! The German 10 year bond auction may have gone badly but short dated German debt, known as Bubills, have never been in such high demand even with yields turning negative. In other words, if investors are willing to PAY to lend to the German government, it is hardly a sign of deep fear about Germany or even the euro.

Germany is not under threat – yet – but traders and investors are increasingly trading the euro and Germany together. Since September, the value of the euro against the US dollar has moved almost inversely to German credit default swaps. For those of you who may not know, a credit default swap is a measure of how likely a country is to default on its debt. In other words, traders and investors now care far more about whether they will get their money back than how much they can earn. This also makes them super-sensitive to any hint of danger which leads to much greater market volatility.

The start to this week’s trading has seen the market determined to shake off last week’s doom and gloom by seizing on record Black Friday retail sales and reports that French officials are pushing for a deal on Eurozone fiscal union. This has helped to reverse some of last week’s heavy losses with the US markets having their best days so far in November, with the S&P moving almost 3% higher, while on Monday all the DOW 30 stocks ended higher too.

It remains to be seen whether this swing higher will be maintained, not least because the $VIX – although managed to close lower on Monday – which is positive for equities, is still above 30. If the $VIX does manage to breakdown and move back towards the mid-20s then we could see a rally moving forward into December.

What is also interesting is that according to the latest CFTC data, net euro shorts have also fallen to 85k from last week’s 100k plus. In other words, we could be seeing a short term bounce higher for markets and even the start of a “Santa Claus” rally.

However, with this week’s fundamental news focusing on employment with the non-farm payroll (NFP) release, due on Friday, traders and investors need to take care. The first big number traders (and investors) should watch is the ADP release on Wednesday, a precursor to the NFP. Over a few months this once reliable release, which is based on payroll figures, has become a little less accurate in forecasting the NFP data two days later. Previously, it had always given traders a “heads up” on the Friday data but recently has become increasingly inaccurate in these volatile markets.

Wednesday’s forecast is for a number at 131k, up slightly from last month’s 110k. This is followed by Canadian GDP which is forecast to come in flat at 0.3%.

Thursday’s big number comes from China with the PMI, which is forecast to show a decline from last month’s 50.4 down to 49.8. So expect to see this reflected overnight in the Asian trading session should this number come in wildly at the odds with the forecast.

Thursday sees the unemployment figures in the US, which are forecast to come in flat but we also have the ISM data – an equivalent of the Chinese PMI. Traders and investors watch the ISM as it is considered a leading indicator of the economy because it is based on a large survey of purchasing managers of major companies. Any number above 50 indicates an economy that is expanding and below 50 suggests an economy that is contracting – so this is a very important number.

The week ends, of course, with the general razzamatazz of the NFP – a release which will affect all markets. The forecast is for an increase from 80k last time to 119k this time. This release always causes markets to over-react and traders should wait for any volatility to die down before entering any trade.

Hawkeye users can, of course, trade these markets with confidence because Hawkeye has been designed:

To give traders the edge needed to succeed, as it gets them onto the right side of the market time and time again.
To help traders control their emotions by giving them the confidence to stay in.
To help traders control their risk by giving them clear signals of when to stay in and when to get out, thereby protecting your equity.

All of these things are vital in difficult and turbulent markets such as these! But how is Hawkeye able to do this?

Because Hawkeye has been created to exploit the power of the only leading indicator that traders and investors need, which is VOLUME. This is the foundation stone of Hawkeye on which all the indicators are built. So regardless of whether you are a day trader, position trader, swing trader, scalper, or any other kind of trader, VOLUME should lie at the heart of your trading.

As an example of why volume is such a powerful indicator, Nigel was discussing the gold price in Friday’s trading room. As many of you know, gold has recently had a significant pullback with many questioning whether the recent bull run has now ended for the precious metal.

Indeed in last week’s trading room, the monthly chart was showing some significant resistance as the volume has started to change from green to white (or neutral). In addition, the Hawkeye Heatmap on the weekly chart is also turning dark red – all signals suggesting we can expect to see a further pullback for gold. The daily chart also confirms this view with the short term trend now also turning red, selling volume clearly evident over the last week and any break and hold below the $1600 per ounce level could see a further decline for the metal in due course.

If you would like to see Hawkeye in action and how we use these tools ourselves, then simply sign up for one of the FREE Live Training Rooms! Become the trader you deserve to be!

Nigel Hawkes’ training room covers the commodity markets, where he explains his latest trades and how to select low risk, high probability trades before moving onto the day trader’s favorite instrument – the e-mini. Here you will be able to see the genius that is Hawkeye as Nigel uses the Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger, two unique indicators to Hawkeye, which ensure we trade at the right speed and in harmony with the market.

To register for our Free Live Training Room each Thursday, Register Here! Forex begins at 8:00am, and Futures/Equities begins at 9:30am, Eastern US time.

May 9, 2011February 9, 2018

Patience – A Key for Success

Nigel Hawkes warns against missing correct timing on trades and how to use the Hawkeye ChartTools, GearBox and GearChanger, at their full potential. Be sure to have the patience to wait for perfect setups. Think like a hunter and you will be trading for success.

Click on the image below to view this week’s video update:

We demonstrate the same methods live in our Free Training Room. Come join the fun every week. To see the current schedule and register to attend, Register Here.

July 5, 2010February 9, 2018

Making Profits in Swing Trading – See How VSA Does It!

Continuing the Hawkeye Traders Education Series

Nigel Hawkes is a market leader and expert in volume spread analysis. Over the past 20 plus years he has studied and applied volume analysis to every market in every timeframe. What he has found is that when using volume and price together with the desired timeframe he can successfully interpret market direction. He took his findings and created a group of ChartTools that provide consistency to his analysis within the framework of an easy to follow methodology.

The Hawkeye Traders Methodology is designed to get traders and investors on the right side of the market. The important word in that previous statement is methodology. At Hawkeye we do not simply provide indicators to traders. We provide education and teach traders how to interpret the market through volume and price and how to trade it. This training includes how to read the signals, where to enter, where to exit for both profit targets and stops and what timeframes to use based off your style of trading. It does not matter if you are a scalper, day-trader, swing-trader or investor. The Hawkeye Methodology can be used to interpret the markets of your choice. Over the next few weeks we are going to show you through charts and our analysis how this is done.

In Series 1, we covered BP. In Series 2, we covered Jim Cramer’s Picks. In that analysis there were multiple stocks currently trading in congestion. In Series 3, we had analyzed several stocks in congestion and showed how to avoid trades when congestion is present. This week, we will show how Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) will give you the edge in Swing Trading. Join Nigel Hawkes, the world’s leading authority on VSA, as he teaches students all about VSA at the Hawkeye Seminar (27-28 Sep 10) in sunny West Palm Beach, FL. You do not want to miss out on this opportunity to learn directly from Nigel about the power of Volume Spread Analysis.

SERIES 4: Swing Trading Indices.

Making Profits in Swing Trading Using Volume Spread Analysis.

Time is a crucial element to trading. The smoother we make price and volume the easier it is to trade it. If we look at current Nasdaq and Russell 2000 charts we can see that on June 23, 2010, we have increasing selling volume on a bar that closed near its mid range. Volume Spread Analysis tells us that on this bar sellers came in strong and we should be expecting decreasing price movement.

When the June 24, 2010 bar opened Hawkeye gave us a short signal on the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq. Here at Hawkeye Traders we like to wait for both indices to confirm market direction increasing the probabilities for trend continuation.

Towards the end of the downward push level 3 was triggered in both markets on July 1, 2010. On this bar the Russell closed near the midrange of the bar on increasing green volume and the Nasdaq closed in the upper quadrant of the bar on increasing green volume. This tells us that buyers are present in the market and a pullback should be expected. During this market condition we want to see sellers come back in the market to increase probabilities of downward trend continuation. On July 2, 2010, red volume came back in the market confirming sellers reentry. The bar closed near its low in both markets on increasing selling volume. In terms of Volume Spread Analysis this is a bearish signal.

To learn more about the power of Volume Spread Analysis, attend one of our 2 or 3-day seminars as we explain in detail how to interpret volume in terms of price spread. Do not miss out on the opportunity to learn this powerful trading technique.

Good Trading Everyone,

Hawkeye Traders
Understanding Price and Volume: Now that’s trading!!!