This Week’s Market Forecast – Risk On Returns!

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This Week’s Market Forecast – Risk On Returns!

Last week was the worst Thanksgiving week on Wall Street since 1941. Traders and investors reeled from the problems in Europe, as well as the collapse of the US budget deficit talks. The S&P 500 fell almost 5% on the week, closing just below the key 1160 level. The Dow was also down almost 5% over the week, and the Nasdaq was down by 5.1%.

The selloff really took place following the disastrous German bond auction which saw demand for the 10 year Bund at its lowest since the euro was created. Investors rushed to safety but redefined safety to exclude Bunds, moving instead into US Treasuries, UK Gilts, and Nordic Bonds.

With investors shunning German Bunds, the euro duly collapsed, particularly against the US dollar as the EURUSD tested the 1.32 level before moving back higher. As one commentator has said, this now appears to be the “apocalypse” trade – if German bonds cannot attract investors, and are no longer considered a safe haven, surely it’s now all over for the euro?

As always, nothing is quite as it seems and this may be a hasty conclusion – at least for this week!! The German 10 year bond auction may have gone badly but short dated German debt, known as Bubills, have never been in such high demand even with yields turning negative. In other words, if investors are willing to PAY to lend to the German government, it is hardly a sign of deep fear about Germany or even the euro.

Germany is not under threat – yet – but traders and investors are increasingly trading the euro and Germany together. Since September, the value of the euro against the US dollar has moved almost inversely to German credit default swaps. For those of you who may not know, a credit default swap is a measure of how likely a country is to default on its debt. In other words, traders and investors now care far more about whether they will get their money back than how much they can earn. This also makes them super-sensitive to any hint of danger which leads to much greater market volatility.

The start to this week’s trading has seen the market determined to shake off last week’s doom and gloom by seizing on record Black Friday retail sales and reports that French officials are pushing for a deal on Eurozone fiscal union. This has helped to reverse some of last week’s heavy losses with the US markets having their best days so far in November, with the S&P moving almost 3% higher, while on Monday all the DOW 30 stocks ended higher too.

It remains to be seen whether this swing higher will be maintained, not least because the $VIX – although managed to close lower on Monday – which is positive for equities, is still above 30. If the $VIX does manage to breakdown and move back towards the mid-20s then we could see a rally moving forward into December.

What is also interesting is that according to the latest CFTC data, net euro shorts have also fallen to 85k from last week’s 100k plus. In other words, we could be seeing a short term bounce higher for markets and even the start of a “Santa Claus” rally.

However, with this week’s fundamental news focusing on employment with the non-farm payroll (NFP) release, due on Friday, traders and investors need to take care. The first big number traders (and investors) should watch is the ADP release on Wednesday, a precursor to the NFP. Over a few months this once reliable release, which is based on payroll figures, has become a little less accurate in forecasting the NFP data two days later. Previously, it had always given traders a “heads up” on the Friday data but recently has become increasingly inaccurate in these volatile markets.

Wednesday’s forecast is for a number at 131k, up slightly from last month’s 110k. This is followed by Canadian GDP which is forecast to come in flat at 0.3%.

Thursday’s big number comes from China with the PMI, which is forecast to show a decline from last month’s 50.4 down to 49.8. So expect to see this reflected overnight in the Asian trading session should this number come in wildly at the odds with the forecast.

Thursday sees the unemployment figures in the US, which are forecast to come in flat but we also have the ISM data – an equivalent of the Chinese PMI. Traders and investors watch the ISM as it is considered a leading indicator of the economy because it is based on a large survey of purchasing managers of major companies. Any number above 50 indicates an economy that is expanding and below 50 suggests an economy that is contracting – so this is a very important number.

The week ends, of course, with the general razzamatazz of the NFP – a release which will affect all markets. The forecast is for an increase from 80k last time to 119k this time. This release always causes markets to over-react and traders should wait for any volatility to die down before entering any trade.

Hawkeye users can, of course, trade these markets with confidence because Hawkeye has been designed:

  1. To give traders the edge needed to succeed, as it gets them onto the right side of the market time and time again.
  2. To help traders control their emotions by giving them the confidence to stay in.
  3. To help traders control their risk by giving them clear signals of when to stay in and when to get out, thereby protecting your equity.

All of these things are vital in difficult and turbulent markets such as these! But how is Hawkeye able to do this?

Because Hawkeye has been created to exploit the power of the only leading indicator that traders and investors need, which is VOLUME. This is the foundation stone of Hawkeye on which all the indicators are built. So regardless of whether you are a day trader, position trader, swing trader, scalper, or any other kind of trader, VOLUME should lie at the heart of your trading.

As an example of why volume is such a powerful indicator, Nigel was discussing the gold price in Friday’s trading room. As many of you know, gold has recently had a significant pullback with many questioning whether the recent bull run has now ended for the precious metal.

Indeed in last week’s trading room, the monthly chart was showing some significant resistance as the volume has started to change from green to white (or neutral). In addition, the Hawkeye Heatmap on the weekly chart is also turning dark red – all signals suggesting we can expect to see a further pullback for gold. The daily chart also confirms this view with the short term trend now also turning red, selling volume clearly evident over the last week and any break and hold below the $1600 per ounce level could see a further decline for the metal in due course.

If you would like to see Hawkeye in action and how we use these tools ourselves, then simply sign up for one of the FREE Live Training Rooms! Become the trader you deserve to be!

Nigel Hawkes’ training room covers the commodity markets, where he explains his latest trades and how to select low risk, high probability trades before moving onto the day trader’s favorite instrument – the e-mini. Here you will be able to see the genius that is Hawkeye as Nigel uses the Hawkeye GearBox and GearChanger, two unique indicators to Hawkeye, which ensure we trade at the right speed and in harmony with the market.

To register for our Free Live Training Room each Thursday, Register Here! Forex begins at 8:00am, and Futures/Equities begins at 9:30am, Eastern US time.