Some weeks ago, Hawkeye alerted you to the fact that although all the pundits were talking gold up, the Hawkeye Volume algorithm was showing weakness. Let’s look at the charts.
Chart 1 Weekly Gold
Hawkeye has been short since last November at $1,684 (see red arrow above).
Chart 2 Daily Gold
The three red arrows show where you could have entered fabulous trades using the Hawkeye Roadkill indicator. With gold in a strong downtrend, the Hawkeye Roadkill identified three possible entries on April 13, May 17 and June 18 that would’ve generated substantial profits!
The Hawkeye Perspective
The market is in a major downtrend. The next major resistance price level is $1,020. Expect to see a major price move to the downside on high volume followed by a narrow bar with light volume.
Remember: markets don’t continue down on light volume so we must wait to see the above profile then expect an explosive up move form this heavily oversold position.
Trading any market without education on the six ways the market moves is like walking into a casino with a stack of dollars – you’re relying on luck rather than a methodology.
Learn the “Six Ways a Market Moves,” the key to being a great trader, at the next Special 2 1/2-day Hawkeye Seminar in Santa Ana, CA on September 21-23, 2013.
With the crisis in Cyprus unfolding, every pundit and novice commentator was calling gold to new highs. However, the Hawkeye system was in opposition, as the only true leading indicator — volume — did not confirm. The Hawkeye Volume indicator was built on Volume Spread Analysis, and is quite complex… but we made the display very simple and intuitive, using only three colors to identify the presence of buying, selling or neutral volume in the market.
Refer to the chart above for the discussion that follows:
1. Although the daily went into an uptrend (green trend dots),
2. notice there was no confirmation of either green buying volume or green trend from our unique Roadkill indicator, showing us what the weekly time frame was doing… neutral volume and red down trend.
3. A pivot low (yellow dot) with 2 bars of buying volume pushes market up 3 bars in an overall down trend.
4. LOW RISK ENTRY: a pivot yellow dot formed, and neutral volume followed by selling volume pushes market down, and it closed down $25.30 on the week.
The weekly volume from the previous week was green, but the close was less than the open showing weak conviction. At the end of the week, April 12, 2013 was a widebar (twice average true range x 20 bars). The close was in the bottom 40% of the range. This confirmed the Hawkeye weekly trend that has been place since November 2, 2012.
Remember the Hawkeye widebar rule: we now expect the market to consolidate hereuntil there is a weekly close lower than this widebar.